Following today’s speech at the Heritage Foundation by U.S. National Security Advisor Amb. John Bolton on The Trump Administration’s New Africa Strategy, Foreign Minister of the Republic of Somaliland Yasin Hagi Mohamoud Hiir made the following statement:
The Republic of Somaliland welcomes efforts by the United States to empower African governments to seek greater freedom to chart their own democratic path, achieve independence from foreign influence and catalyze sustained economic growth through an embrace of free markets all which we have successfully pursued since separating from Somalia and reclaiming our independence in 1991.
Today’s remarks by Amb. Bolton and America’s new strategy have opened the door to a strategic reevaluation of our diplomatic ties and a stronger partnership, from which there would be mutual benefits. Somaliland can be a model to others as the Trump Administration acts to advance democracy, good governance and a secure future for Africa.
One year ago, Somaliland citizen went to polls to elect a new president to fix and strengthen the rule of law, tackle the soaring inflation and currency depreciation, create jobs, provide the basic economical infrastructures (roads, bridges, ports, schools and hospitals), route out the crony capitalism and quotas in the business for the few in the expense of the many and to pave the dysfunctional Somaliland foreign policy into a new direction.
In the election days, the election fever was high and the campaign trail was marred by demagogic taunts, defamation, feuds whereby tribal cards were played by presidential hopefuls to garner political support to clinch the power. In addition to this, the political machinery in the election days experienced a relatively a commendable side as parties presented their manifestos for the voters and confronted a widely watched presidential debate. Although the voters’ options for a perfect candidate were limited yet their faith on candidates was not bad. Voters kept green boughs in their hearts. They knew that the road for presidential palace was ugly and a candidate must go through the dirty, so when he gets in, he cleans the mess, heals the wounds of division and strengths the unity and the confidence of the citizens on the government across the country.
Kulmiye, the ruling party won the presidential election in a landslide victory which the international observers hailed as a progressive step in Somaliland election evolution. The landslide victory gave Muse Bihi – the president-elect a mandate to form a government that fulfills his party agenda that symbolized “moving forward”.
One year after the election, I examine if we moved forward by revising the domestic affairs, economy, security and foreign policy.
On domestic and security affairs
Although the president inherited active inter-clan conflicts in Sool and Sanaag regions. Behi’s government has failed to contain the inter-clan enmities in Sool. In October, more than 50 lives were lost, and 80 persons were wounded in inter-clan fighting in Dhumay village in Sool region by a time the government had the mechanism to prevent the atrocity to happen. The aftermath of the horrific loss of lives; loss of properties and injuries, the Somali region in Ethiopia took the role to resolve the inter-clan conflict in Somaliland in Jigjiga when Hargaisa has failed to do so in its soil. On the other hands, the inter-clan conflict in Ceel-afwayn was contained but the byproduct of the conflict resulted so called “rebel group” formed by an army chief who defected from the government’s armed forces for what he called the grievances of the government injustices in the political representation, resource distribution and unfair military ranks. The group is hosted by Puntland. The group attacked Ceel-afwayn district at the onset of Behi’s visit in Sanaag region.
After bitterly fought presidential election, the political climate is polarizing. The election wounds were not healed and the post election tension was not cooled down. The political parties are at odds. The president is playing a political football with the opposition parties on their demand to dissolve the electoral commission. The president failed to cross across the aisle in the spirit of compromise and resolve the electoral commission issue with the opposition parties to avoid the local council and parliamentary elections to be delayed. As a result, the local council and parliamentary elections are postponed which undermines Somaliland democratization process under Bihi administration. On the other hand, the president’s decrees/nominations are seen to incline to the president’s base. In fact, the current administration lags a fair political representation and resource distribution across the country which is a precast for the good faith of the citizens in the government.
“a house divided against itself, cannot stand”
Abraham Lincoln
Former President Silanyo passed the torch to Bihi to finalize Somaliland–Khaatumo deal that Silanyo administration initiated and negotiated with Khatumo’s leader – Galaydh. The historic unity deal signed in Djibouti included the reform of the constitution to ensure fair power sharing and the integration of Khatumo soldiers into the Somaliland national armed forces. Behi’s year in power, the unity deal was left on the desk and any interest to clinch a deal with Khatumo . The avenue for deal is not the horizon in the near future. As Lincoln has said “a house divided against itself, cannot stand” Somaliland needs unity more than ever to get a united front to face the fast changing geopolitical, economical and security dynamics in the regions. Therefore, a deal with Khatumo is building blocks for strong Somaliland case should president Bihi adopt the deal.
Somaliland and Puntland clashed in Tukaraq in different occasions in a year of Behi’s incumbency. Somaliland accused the Federal Somali Government (TFG) for fueling the armed conflict. The conflict in Tukaraq is active, economically costly, politically troubling and the deadlock is far from settlement. The conflict in Tukaraq has clout to the political fight in Sanaag region waged by Puntland as an extention to Somali Federal Government. Recently, Puntland president and TFG ministers paid visits to Badhan and Dhahar districts in different times for their first time to flex their political muscles inside Somaliland borders. Ironically, president Behi’s visit in Ceerigaabo coincided with President Gas’s visit to Dhahar. In addition to this, Puntland administration taxes Qat/Mira in Badhan, Sanaag region brought by jets from Nairobi. This is a redline for Somalinad case that should not be crossed yet president Bihi was not decisive to put political and military force to keep this on hold.
On the Economy
During the presidential debate with other presidential hopefuls, the president stated his stand on the economy which majors to fight the inflation, currency depreciation, focusing on agricultural production for food security and to attract investors by giving assurance for their investments to ensure the economical engine running.
As a year passes, the inflation remains high and the national currency remains depreciated. In the monetary perspective, tackling the inflation and reversing the depreciation of the currency needs substantial reforms. However, there’s no substantial fiscal and monetary reforms made to change the course other than premature hasty steps to limit the amount of mobile money (Zaad and Edahab) to be used as Shillings to tackle the currency devaluation. On the other, there’s a strong argument that the currency depreciation was attributed too much Somaliland shillings in the market against the dollar, weak/less regulatory oversight by the Central Bank to the financial institution; the commercial banks, remittance companies and and mobile money companies and excessive hard currency exported to overseas. The Central Bank is failed to absorb Somaliland Shillings from the market to control the currency exchange and release Dollar to the market to regulate the exchange rate in a way favorable to the shilling and inject USD dollar into the market. Also, the Qat which is economically a destabilizing factor for the national currency that forces Qat traders to move out the hard currency to the neighboring countries for the purchase of the narcotic product. This made the dollar strong and the national currency weak and depreciated. Besides this, there are no significant investors to create jobs/employments and infuse cash in the country to stabilize the economy since Bihi was inaugurated. Therefore there is no economical engine to ease the problems. This speed up the dramatic fall of the purchasing power causing many businesses to close across the country and chronic unemployment become on the verge of explosion unless immediately reverted.
The tangible achievements that can be credited to Behi’s year in power include the resumption of Erigavo-Burao road construction which is expected to be completed late 2019 and the plantation of large swathes in Wajaale and Xaaji plains to produce 25% of the principle food that Somaliland imports as the president stated. These achievements can be counted his major signature in his first year in power to fulfill his agenda, the blueprint of Kulmiye party campaign.
The Rule of Law
Behi’s adminstation was credited the steps to renationalize Berbera port oil terminal and storage and to strip private enterprises from the management and the security of Egal International Airport and parking facilities. On the contrary, the the Public Accounts Committee Chairman MP Nasir Ali Shire was dismissed after he delivered a corruption observations annual report to the Lower House of Parliament that accused former Silanyo minister the involvement of public funds. The accused minister had stamped for Bihi during the campaign trail. The ruling party is a majority party in the parliament yet they did not intervene the case and the government remained passive in the matter. This resulted a public outcry that sees that the government is not serious curbing the corruption and enforcing the rule of law.
In December 2017, the president signed the Police Act into a law that creates an oversight body independent from the police and subjects the police to the jurisdiction of civilian courts and expressly bans the police from using live ammunition against unarmed civilians. However, the government per se proposed ironfisted amendments to remove the independent oversight body, and conduct arrests without court warrant which MPs voted for. The human right defenders labeled that the amendment will make the Police serve as a draconian.
In Behi’s year in power, the government arrested dissent voices as simple as posts like “the president is local” on social media and the media is censored. This is an alarming signal that tells that the new government is not tolerating the voices critical to the it nor embracing the freedom of speech.
In matter of fact, if the increasing powers of the executive over the legislatives that makes the laws and judicial that interprets the law continue the check and balances of governance and our democratic principles will be in peril.
Foreign Policy – Somaliland Direction
President Behi’s agenda to reform the dysfunctional reactive Somaliland foreign policy into a proactive aggressive seductive policy to sell Somaliland case into the region and internationally has yet worked. Somaliland is a country that has a geostrategic importance to buy a political and economical capital for its prime location in the Red Sea. Somaliland’s 30 years concession to UAE to operate Berbera port and run the military base in Berbera, Somaliland’s pirates fight for the safety of the Red Sea, the terrorism fight for the stability of region and the world and the security protection for Ethiopia-Somaliland border are a strong bargaining chip to buy a substantial political capital to achieve Somaliland quest for recognition. These cards have not been used by Behi’s administration in his first year in power. Besides this, the recent sweeping changes in the region led by Abiy Amed to foster economic and security integration gave an amble opportunity to president Farmajo to use megaphone diplomacy of hot air to undermine Somaliland’s reach in the region. Hence, Behi’s administration has not yet countered this using the security, economic and geostrategic advantages as easy chemistry to play a role the sweeping changes in the region and to keep in check Farmajo’s delusional agenda to weaken Somaliland case.
Finally, in the quest for recognition, Somaliland-Somalia negations are the shortest, easiest and safest path to end the quarter century of political bleeding for Somaliland. Somaliland has a strong legal and political argument for its case. Yet, president Bihi is unwillingness to proactively and aggressively push Somalia to sit down at the negation table is prolonging Somaliland case to be sorted out and to end the political bleeding continue. In the meantime, Behi’s administration has not established/re-established or strengthened other backdoor channels to foster diplomatic relations with IGAD, AU, EU, US, GCC block and other friends for Somaliland case. As John C. Maxwell said “ a leader is one who knows the way, goes the way and shows the way” president Bihi should not wait a better prepared stronger Somalia to come for settlement, but he must take multifaceted ways to take Somaliland case into the region and internationally and unlock the diplomatic padlock and other potentials by putting the right leadership, resource, empowerment and people to Somaliland foreign policy.
About the Author Abdinasser Ahmed is the deputy chairman of Kulmiye party in Sanaag region. He isa a political activist based in Hargaisa Somaliland. He can be reached @AbdinasserAA or facebook.com/sanaag
Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints of Somaliland Chronicle and it’s staff.
I have been carefully observing President Muse Bihi’s multiple visits and speeches during the last few weeks. First, I have to admit that his one-week long state trip to the eastern regions of the country and the overwhelmingly warm welcome he received from the populations in that part of the country, both boosted his confidence and energised him.
After one year of total confinement to the presidential palace, it was an exciting adventure for him and a convenient way to gauge public approval of his performance and leadership.
However, it is fair to say, that nothing concrete can be deduced from these public outpourings regarding his actual performance since the majority of the citizens are from a low educational background and impoverished economic conditions as well as the ravaging unemployment.
I will mention a few important points which captured my attention about the speeches of the President. To begin with, a conciliatory tone- towards his opponents and the seemingly over-sensitive Togdheer region- has dominated his public discourses.
He repeatedly called for unity, cooperation and respect for last year’s democratic transition, a narrative reminiscent of his infuriating feeling of simmering dissension from some of that region’s constituencies, and the absence of a long due appeasement initiative for an injured pride subsequent to last year’s elections, from his part.
Another overtly detectable thread in his speeches is the presence of strong sentimental feeling about his past military struggle against the Siyad’s dictatorship regime and the destructive brutality the People of Somaliland courageously endured.
It was apparent that that feeling has subconsciously impacted on his political approach towards the recent threats from the current president of the Federal government.
Although history must be preserved and kept alive in the collective memory of our society, and we should learn valuable lessons from that inglorious period of our nation, we must not allow it to overtake our thinking and planning for the future.
Today’s citizens were astride over the dividing line in that conflict and through a tiresome reconciliation process, in which the President was an influential mediating figure, we moved forward to an inclusive, democratic, triparty system. So that, continually recalling that devastating war into the public discourse serves only those bent on segregating Somalilanders along tribal borders.
The President’s dissection of the multilayered problems we have is both admirable and bold; it shows that he has a clear understanding of the many internal and external challenges and difficulties our country is facing. Notwithstanding, exploring fundamental solutions for these challenges is an assignment yet to commence, namely the widespread unemployment, political stagnation and high inflation.
One of those chronic problems we have is the health care provision nightmare. Just yesterday, the President visited Hargeisa Group Hospital -a long time neglected and progressively deteriorating public institution- to lay the foundation stone for a new Maternity and Neonatal department and to assess the meagre progress that has been made since he came to power.
He spoke about how the behaviour and character of a lot of health care professionals changed and the effect this will have on their patients. He highlighted some of those changes are inhuman, aggressive and repulsive to the public and that both the reputation and quality of their care have consequently declined.
He also lamented the plight of many chronically ill citizens who embark on long trips to foreign countries for health services they could have received in their country if we put our efforts together and improve the appalling conditions of our public and private hospitals.
Apart from occasional insignificant details, the President’s speech couldn’t be more timely and pertinent. And it is a fact that the health sector, with few exceptions, has been persistently hemorrhaging.
For me, health care is a profession that I am both extremely grateful and fortunate to belong to, and what I believe this crucial sector needs, is an overarching strategy to uplift it from this squalid slum.
The core issues for the health department are lack of appropriate funding and incompetent management, which in turn has led to the emergence of a greedy and unscrupulous private health section with minimum expertise and knowledge.
To solve the problem, an elaboration on the analysis of the problem and compassionate pleas for better treatment of patients will not be sufficient. The president should implement his national health plan, come up with the needed resources and exert a powerful authority over the unabashed health care dinosaurs.
We need an applicable policy to nurture the individual capacity of the health care workers, from the most senior doctors to the lowest ranking staff. It is unacceptable for the Ministry of Health not to have a program for continued medical education. Where the Ministry of Health offers on-the-job training courses to its employees to increase their knowledge in their chosen specialities, upgrade their CVs and build a medical experience portfolio.
Such opportunities will surely increase job satisfaction among the majority of health care staff, in addition to the strong inspirational effect it will have on the recently graduated doctors. Modest Measures, like that, will raise their currently rock-bottom morale and strengthen their determination to learn, excel in their role and treat patients and the public with the dignity and professionalism they deserve.
When the government satisfies the legitimate needs of health professionals and workers, including decent salaries, proper training and adequate medical equipment, until such time, any demands from the Health professionals to unilaterally fulfil their duties without improvement in their conditions would be unreasonable and unjust.
About the Author Dr. Abdikarim D Hassan MSc Diabetes and Endocrinology at Salfor Univeristy, UK. Dr Hassan is a freelance writer with special interest in good health care and Education for all citizens. He can be reached on Qurbe206@hotmail.com;
Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints of Somaliland Chronicle and it’s staff.
Keen observers of domestic Somaliland politics would not fail to notice a certain talking-point that has recently been doing the rounds in the political circles of Hargeisa and taken up by a number of prominent politicians and intellectuals hailing from Somaliland’s minority communities, namely that of Saami Qaybsi. The phrase Saami Qaybsi is Somali euphemism for “power sharing” in the context of clan communities. It is a very vague concept often repeated without much clarification as to what it actually means. What is interesting is that despite Somaliland fully adopting a one-person-one-vote model as a foundation for its political discourse ever since the 2002 local election and the subsequent 2003 presidential election, the concept of power sharing based purely tribal-allocation is gaining support among minority communities in Somaliland. It is worth noting in this context that the winner of the 2003 presidential elections was former President Dahir Riyale Kahin who was a candidate belonging to one of these aforementioned minority communities of Somaliland. This article is a response to Prof. Ahmed I. Samatar’s op-ed published on Somaliland Chronicle on 5/12/2018.
Prof. Samatar is one of Somaliland’s foremost academic minds, and much of his opinion piece is worthy of consideration and implementation. Yet it is his discussion of power sharing, and demands for a proper Saami Qaybsi enshrined in law that is troubling. It advocates for going backwards and adopting a system similar to Somalia’s dreadful 4.5 formula for Somaliland instead of continuing on the path of clan-blind democracy of one-person-one-vote. By creating a tribal quota, Somaliland reneges on its democratic credentials and succumbs to what would essentially be political regression, or “snatching defeat from the jaws of victory” to borrow Samatar’s subheading. In that context, this article is a response to the issue of Saami Qaybsi as it relates to these two statements by Prof. Samatar:
“In fact, Bihi immediately returned to the old and defective formula of at once exaggerated appointments (32 ministers and deputies) and conspicuous communal imbalance that is exceedingly partial to the kin community in middle of the country (22 vs. 10 and only one full minister who is female).”
“… the long-‐ standing disgruntlement by the kin communities in the western and eastern Somaliland over what they believe to be a severely lopsided and unacceptable distribution of parliamentary seats, one that allots 56 out of the total of 82 seats to the kin community in the geographical center of the country.”
From the quotes above, Samatar appears to be criticising a number of things, chief among them is what he describes as “lopsided and unacceptable distribution” of political appointments in favour of what he describes as the “kin community in the middle”. It is useful here to clarify the nomenclature, “kin community in the middle” here is a reference to the Isaaq clan of Somaliland, whilst references to communities in the peripheries relates to the Dir clan (to which Samatar belongs) in the West of Somaliland and the Harti clan in the East of the country. The use of these euphemisms has become prevalent among members of Dir and Harti communities recently and it has become the acceptable way of naming clans in polite company.
These demands on the face of them appear righteous and fair, but they are problematic because the basis on which Samatar (and others who campaign for it) have deemed the current arrangements unjust, or lopsided, are not entirely clear. Is it in relation to population sizes of different clan communities? Is it relative to voting power? Or a different metric altogether? In order to arrive at a solution, the basis for which they deem current arrangements inadequate must be voiced, so that other segments of society can take part in the discussion. Furthermore, proponents of Saami Qaybsi have not presented any solutions or visions for a system of power-sharing that would be more equitable to the one currently used in Somoaliland.
In summary, the issue with Saami Qaybsi advocacy in Somaliland is two-fold:
What exactly is the problem with the current power-sharing arrangements? What is the cause of the perceived injustice?
What alternative power-sharing arrangements do you propose?
There is no evidence presented to substantiate the claims of current allocations in Somaliland’s parliament, for instance are unjust, or how the ministerial appointments are lopsided in favour of one group (Isaaq) and to the detriment of others (Dir and Harti).
The most immediate way of coming upon a palatable power-sharing arrangements for the whole nation is to award political representation based on percentage share of the population. The problem with this is that a census has never been conducted in Somaliland since regaining independence, so having exact figures for the various kin communities is not possible for now. With that being said, the closest equivalent we have is a look at historical data, be it past election results, or colonial records, to try and find a starting point for this new, more fair, equitable sharing of political representation.
Firstly, lets look at past elections. The most recent one has taken place in 2017, and saw the advent of biometric voting systems that proved very reliable in recording voter population. Samatar’s Dir community mainly inhabits the region of Awdal within Somaliland. Awdal (and Samatar’s Dir community) produced 81,436 votes out of a total of 565,617 votes in Somaliland. This constitutes 14.39% of the population of voters.
Before that in the 2010 elections, Awdal produced 81,338 out of 538,246 votes in Somaliland, this amounted to 15.11% of the total voting population.
Historically, the only census that was conducted in Somaliland is the old British colonial census of clans of British Somaliland Protectorate. The Dir kin community at the time was recorded to number 100,000 people (Gadaboursi being 45,000 whilst Ise being 55,000), whilst the total Protectorate population was 640,000 people, the Western kin community (modern day Awdal) collectively represented 15.62% of the population of the Protectorate.
Furthermore, Somaliland’s Parliamentary elections of 1960 resulted in 5 members of the Dir clan community (3 Gadaboursi and 2 Isa) elected to Somaliland’s first parliament out of 33 total elected representatives, this represents a percentage share of 15.15% of all representatives.
And lastly, Borama district (modern day Awdal) returned 14,965 votes in the Somali Republic’s 1961 referendum of a total Somaliland vote of 104,033, which represents 14.38% of the total vote produced in Somaliland.
What the numbers above show is that the western community of Somaliland represents a voting block that corresponds to 14-15% of the total voting population of Somaliland. This can be construed to mean they make up about 14-15% of the total population of Somaliland.
Seeing as a main point of contention of those advocating for Saami Qaybsi particularly from the western Somaliland kin communityis the inadequate number of parliamentarians, which was a specific point highlighted by Samatar in his article, we can now compare that percentage figure of of 14-15% that they represent in Somaliland to their current allocation in Somaliland’s parliament.
There are currently 14 MPs representing this particular kin community of Awdal (13 Gadaboursi and 1 Ise) out of a total of 82 Somaliland representatives. This corresponds to a share of 17.07% of the total number of parliament representatives, which amounts to more political representation than the actual voting power of this kin community.
All the hard numbers and historical data above present a sizeable population ranging between 14-15% of the total population of Somaliland, yet receive political representation to the tune of 17.07% of the total number of Parliamentarians.
Samatar’s other point of contention was number of government ministers, if we count full ministers, there are 23 full ministers in Somaliland’s cabinet, of which 4 belong to the Dir kin community, that represents 17.39% of all government ministers. Any reasonable examination of the figures would agree that it is adequate representation.
If anything, a more equitable sharing or clan-based Saami Qaybsi based on population figures would involve removing MPs from this community, not adding to it as Samatar demands. These demands of more representation without any justification of basis upon which representation is given exemplify a case of tyranny of a minority. In this context these political figures demanding additional representation over and above what their communities’ share of the vote would dictate does nothing but creating a sense of paranoia and pollution of political discourse of Somaliland with unfounded fears of domination. Let us not forget that it was only in Somaliland out of all Somali-speaking nations that a minority candidate was elected to office in a free and fair elections, this would not have ever happened had there been a overbearing push to politically sideline minority kin groups in Somaliland.
This Saami Qaybsi rhetoric is very dangerous and sets the stage for even more outrageous demands of ‘justice’ that are not justified by any measurable metric one uses. In reality these are demands of appeasement and political blackmail by politicians hailing from minority groups in Somaliland aimed against the majority kin group, which would no doubt create an opposing and equally domineering wave among the majority Isaaq kin group in response. This damages our civic cohesion as a nascent nation and creates an environment ripe for ‘tribal justice warriors’ keen on taking advantage of these conditions to capitalise on said fears for their own gain.
It is prudent before demanding justice, to explain why the current system is flawed and offer alternatives, calling for justice for the sake of calling for justice is an exercise in futility. It is damaging and sows the seeds of distrust and paranoia within our brotherly communities.
The alternative is clear. Going back to the 1990’s to create a tribal power-sharing agreement flies in the face of everything the people of Somaliland achieved since declaring independence. Democratic vote should be the only arbiter of the issue of representation, its the most transparent and fair way to distribute political representation. It is the only sustainable political model we can use.
About the Author Warsame Abdinour is an Engineer from Somaliland based out of Wellington, New Zealand and can be reached @ warsameabdinour@gmail.com
Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints of Somaliland Chronicle and it’s staff.
Somaliland has to revisit the kinship with its fake sister, Ethiopia. Somaliland has been a lonely nation since she has officially disowned its ugly and ruthless brother, Somalia. In its search for a new family member from the international community, Ethiopia waved a fake hand of sisterhood that always benefited her.
For decades, Somaliland has been bleeding economically in the form of a huge trade deficit and got nothing back but a lip service. It is worth mentioning that even the lip service has been recently ended by Abiy Ahmed. Mr. Ahmed’s decision is seemingly based on Somaliland’s dumb foreign policy that accepted to be taken for granted.
The prime minister of Ethiopia has openly chosen Farmajo and his stateless administration that has nothing to offer and ignored Somaliland in spite of the fact that his country is sucking the life out of Somaliland as they send Khat drugs for US dollars. In his political calculations, securing his vague deal for Somali ports is more important than Somaliland and he ignores the fact that Eastern Oromia’s economy will collapse to its knees if Somaliland sways its head to another direction.
Because they have taken us for granted, Lema Megersa of Oromia region has added insult to the injury as he cannot comprehend that Somaliland has the audacity to open its market to another country like Kenya. Mr. Megersa has angrily talked to his local house of parliament and foolishly uttered that Somaliland’s market is only for Ethiopia. He added that he would invite President Behi to the Oromia state to request him to stop the Kenyan Khat.
In response to the Ethiopian politics, we demand that our president to exert all our trade powers by adopting an aggressive, mutual interest-based diplomacy and tell Mr. Megersa, ‘If you need our money, you may come to Hargeisa with a polite request.’ If he comes, Megersa has to carry with him a fair message to his prime minister, ‘You either keep the one-way trade from Ethiopia to Somaliland or remain in cahoots with Farmajo’ and loose hundreds of millions of dollars.
More important, before Mr. Megersa even makes his selfish call to president Behi, Somaliland has to make Oromia feel the hunger pain. As a result, I hereby suggest the following unprecedented move.
First, we need to open a direct route to import Kenyan and Yemani Khat. At the same time, enforce hefty tariffs and other barriers against the entry of the Ethiopian Khat.
Second, minimize the Ethiopian food, vegetable, cement exports, and import enough vegetable until we reach self-sufficiency to fulfill local consumption.
Third, share with Mr. Megersa the number of thousands of Oromo residents who should be leaving us and heading for his Oromo state since Ethiopia does not appreciate the free ride and Somaliland will not offer any more if it.
Implementing the above move will definitely create a hardship for their farmers, dwindle export taxes for local and federal governments. As a result, Megersa will take a painful message from Oromia to his leader, Dr. Dreamer.
We all know Dr. Ahmed has lost the support of all other regions but Oromia. By punishing Oromia, we may not break Dr. Ahmed’s Oromo leg on which he stands but we will at least hit him with a severe economic pain.
In conclusion, it is unfortunate that Somaliland lacks the art of diplomacy. There is saying on diplomacy, ‘Diplomacy is a game of chess in which the nations are checkmated.’
About the Author: Khadar CaloolGeele is a Somalilander based out of Austin TX and can be reached @ email: qadarosman@gmail.com
Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints of Somaliland Chronicle and it’s staff.
We are conducting a poll to gauge the public opinion on Somaliland Parliament. Their ability to legislate, act as a counter weight to the Executive Branch, the term extension and more.
The new Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, has been conducting new diplomatic approaches across the Horn of Africa.
Mr. Ahmed’s new administration has decided to offer an olive branch to Eritrea. The relationship between the two nations has been, to put it mildly, quite frosty. Since, technically, both countries have been at war for almost three decades.
Flush from the nascent Ethiopian-Eritrean agreement, Prime Minister Ahmed, has turned his attention into creating a triumvirate block in the Horn of Africa, consisting of, Ethiopia, Eritrea and the federal entity in Mogadishu.
The new diplomatic maneuvers by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, would seemingly appear to have consequences for Somaliland.
It has long being the policy of the federal entity in Mogadishu to try isolate Somaliland, diplomatically and politically.
Given the fact that the weak and non-representative federal entity (no direct mandate from the population) has been unable to use force to try and subjugate Somaliland, it has began to, under the leadership of Mr. Farmajo, try and undermine the economic and diplomatic progress of Somaliland.
The federal entity in Mogadishu has failed in its attempt to halt the Dubai World expansion of the Berbera port.
The federal entity in Mogadishu has failed in its attempt to destabilize the eastern fringes of Somaliland by using its proxy region, Puntland.
The federal entity in Mogadishu has failed in its attempt to lift the UN weapons embargo in order to arm the enemies of Somaliland.
The federal entity in Mogadishu will fail in its attempt to drive a wedge between Somaliland and Ethiopia, by using tribal politics in the Somali region of Ethiopia.
The Ethiopian-Somaliland relationship is based on mutual respect and understanding. These historic ties will remain irrespective of any political or diplomatic moves. Whether the Ethiopian consulate remains open or the Somaliland Liaison office in Addis Ababa is relocated, is neither here nor there. Somaliland and Ethiopia will always work together on the major issues in the region.
Ethiopia is Somaliland’s political and commercial partner. We work together on security issues and democratic progress. Both countries play host to a large population from each other. From teachers, to doctors, to nurses, to businessmen, to the ordinary barber in Hargeisa.
Somaliland and Ethiopia are partners in the largest commercial endeavors in the region, from the Berbera corridor, to transport, commerce, agriculture, education, finance, fishing, livestock,to hydro-electric power supply. So, it will always be business as usual. Politicians and administrations will come and go, but the commercial, cultural and social ties will continue to flourish.
One last point, a reminder to everyone, Somalilanders are no strangers to adversity and thrive upon it.
About the Author Ahmed Kheyre is based in London, UK and can be reached @ ruraledcomm@yahoo.co.uk
Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints of Somaliland Chronicle and it’s staff.
As most observers acknowledge, seismic changes are now underway in the Horn of Africa. As a result of an unexpected rise of a new Ethiopian prime minister, Abiy Ahmed Ali, from the Oromo ethnic group, a novel and breathtaking vision is swirling in the region.
This surging paradigmatic shift is already impacting on both the Ethiopian domestic and regional political topographies. In the case of the first, dramatic and positive changes in the relationship between the Ethiopian state and its richly diverse citizenry is unfolding.
Among the most significant are: (a) the selection of an Oromo person to head the government for the first time in the history of modern Ethiopia, (b) the appointment of women to half of his cabinet, (c) a new and fresh invitation for the resistant Amhara community to reenter peaceful and civic national politics, (d) the immediate release of notable political prisoners, (e) a reassertion of popular participation and freedom of expression, and (f) an overall re-‐energizing of democratic governance. On the wider regional front, the implications are even more notable.
First, a daring breakthrough with regard to the long, bitter, and violent stalemate between Ethiopia and Eritrea has been swiftly promulgated. In this context, a satisfactory settlement over the contentious border between the two countries has now ushered in an unconstrained travel and trade between the two peoples.
Second, the Prime Minister and the long-‐serving and authoritarian President of Eritrea, Isaias Afwerki, have publicly stated that the two countries will support the integrity of the sovereignty of Somalia.
Third, Mr. Ahmed has underscored the urge to move the Horn of Africa towards a larger and more integrated developmental agenda. Add these together, and more, the new initiatives are not only exhilarating but, more importantly and if made to bear fruit, could transform the region from its current profile as the epitome of ubiquitous hunger, disease, ignorance, insecurity, malignant sectarianism, and vulnerability to old and new outside manipulations to one of rising quality of well being, collective confidence, and emerging cosmopolitanism. In short, kudos to Prime Minister Ahmed — he has triggered potentially colossal changes that are at once worth encouraging and watching with great interest.
SOMALILAND’S VIBRANT AND PEACEFUL ELECTION
Another historic happening took place in the Republic of Somaliland: the successful national presidential election of November 2017. The three established and constitutionally permitted political parties –i.e. Wadani, Ucid, and the ruling Kulmiye, contested for the much-‐delayed presidency of the country. Notwithstanding a heavy and regressive dose of tribalist small-‐mindedness, particularly by Wadani and Kulmiye, the nearly month-‐long campaign was generally spirited and composed.
Furthermore, when polling day arrived, the country was calm and the process concluded with impressive orderliness. Kulmiye won decisively, by over eighty thousand votes (around 54% of the total) beyond its closest and major competitor Wadani. During the immediate aftermath, the leadership of Wadani had expressed bitter concern over the voting process and accused it of electoral fraudulence, as well as pointed out an illegitimate and blatant use of the financial and other assets of the state, to secure Kulmiye’s victory. However, the numerous internationalmonitors on the ground unanimously certified that, though the contest was fierce, on the whole the election was quite fair and free.
There is no question that the consummation of the presidential election in Somaliland, the third nation-‐wide of its type since the rebirth of the country in 1991, has marked its politics distinctly from that of Somalia. In the case of the latter, any hope of a national election –i.e. one-‐person one vote — is still in the distant future. The reasons for this great divergence include: Somaliland’s relative civic cohesiveness, its working national political institutions, and its professional and able security forces.
In comparison, Somalia continues to be bedeviled by a toxic cocktail of tribalized zones, self-seeking individualism, fissiparous identity politics, corruption as a way of life among the lumpen elite, and direct and dark financial interventions by foreign countries, particularly from the Middle East and some EU countries in search of compradors. This condition, now entering its third decade, gives the lie to the claim of the existence of an effective government in Somalia. On the contrary, the writ of Mogadishu is not uncontestably enforceable in the whole of the capital, let alone maintaining law and order across the width and breadth of Somalia.
More pointedly, Al-‐Shabaab forces are resilient and continue to be very active almost everywhere, with particularly violent disruptions of quotidian life in Mogadishu. Such is the condition even after nearly $2 billion of aid, primarily for supporting UNISOM, from the United States alone in the past ten years. In short, the fall out from the total wreckage of the post-‐colonial Somali state, more than a quarter of a century ago, still debilitatively haunts the people of Somalia. Notwithstanding the grimness of the above, however, it is important to register here this paramount fact: there are still ordinary women and men from Somalia who, everyday quietly, if not heroically, resist the degeneration and, concurrently, dream a new time of resuscitation.
SNATCHING DEFEAT FROM THE JAWS OF VICTORY
But the generalized euphoria that accompanied the electoral success of Kulmiye in Somaliland about a year ago seems to be short lived. More pointedly, that spirit of high expectation, one based on a coast to coast campaign that stressed five urgent public policy priorities- –that is, strengthening civic bonding, stimulating economic growth accompanied by environmental protection, reconstructing educational institutions, addressing the gravity of public health, and reinvigorating international relations –-‐ is vaporizing. As a result, there is palpable collective descent into what Somalilanders call Amakaag iyo Yaab (i.e. bewilderment and dismay). This worrisome reaction is building up for the following (among others) reasons:
President Bihi is yet to concretize in real time the alluring and compact vision that galvanized the majority of the voters – one grounded in broad justice, ethnic and gender equity, and high administrative performance — that was promised to the country.
The composition of his cabinet contradicts the repetitively asserted campaign pledge to appoint women and men of the highest caliber. Moreover, the agreed upon postulate of establishing a maximum limit of twenty ministerial portfolios has been breached. In fact, Bihi immediately returned to the old and defective formula of at once exaggerated appointments (32 ministers and deputies) and conspicuous communal imbalance that is exceedingly partial to the kin community in middle of the country (22 vs. 10 and only one full minister who is female). Given the thick rancor surrounding the issue of fairness, it is seems appropriate to heed this wise insight of Michael Ignetieff:
“Interethnic accommodation anywhere depends on equilibrium of forces. An ethnic minority can live in peace with an ethnic majority, as long as that majority does not use its preponderance to turn the institutions of the state into an instrument of ethnic favoritism.”
Bihi has admirably and decisively reduced the venal and scandalous use of state revenues, particularly by senior officials. Nevertheless, the effect of the confluence of an absence of economic growth, rising prices, degrading local currency, and severe unemployment rate among the youth is a looming and generalized immiseration. Driven from the rural areas by a succession of droughts and a desiccating landscape, vast numbers of the denizens of Somaliland are moving to the few major urban concentrations and smaller
towns. Without reliable sources of livelihood and decent shelter, the majority of the people of Somaliland are increasingly becoming depraved hovel dwellers.
Bihi’s administration continues the unsophisticated, ill-‐planned, poorly staffed, and niggardly funded approach to international affairs. This has been the bane of Somaliland’s global relations ever since the country’s rebirth, twenty-‐seven and half years ago. Despite the mounting and dizzying changes taking in the neighborhood and farther-‐afield, then, Somaliland is stuck at a sophomoric level in both understanding the complexities of the search for recognition, as well as taking stock of the strategic shifts that are in-‐progress.
There is no evidence that neither the Ministry of Education nor the Ministry of Public Health has been, thus far, given the supreme attention and reform that each needs so desperately. For, it is a common article of faith in the modern world that these two seminal priorities set the foundation for the production of high quality human capital.
The two opposition parties have become feckless and seem incapable, thus far, of offering an analytical and inspiring civic critique. Furthermore, the main opposition, Wadani, which garnered a striking 43 percent of the total vote, is still wailing over the defeat. More than a year later, Wadani has shown no signs that it is a robust national political institution – one that is competent to hold on tightly to its large supporters, restock its vision for the country, win over more citizens to its side, and prepare itself for the competitions ahead.
The long, long overdue parliamentary election which have been delayed for over eight years were marked to take place in March 2019. This will not be possible again. There reasons for this include: (a) a highly charged dispute over the tenure of the Electoral Commission such that Wadani believes must be terminated before any new national elections are to mounted, (b) Wadani’s conviction that the majority of the Commission is a disguised and biased members of Kulmiye and, therefore, a new Commission with equal representation from the three parties must be created, and (c) the long-‐ standing disgruntlement by the kin communities in the western and eastern Somaliland over what they believe to be a severely lopsided and unacceptable distribution of parliamentary seats, one that allots 56 out of the total of 82 seats to the kin community in the geographical center of the country. This impasse, full of murky intrigue, has at least three immediate and critical ramifications. First, the current Parliament, despite unanimity among Somalilanders that it is functionally comatose, will linger on. Second, Somaliland’s acclaimed democratic logos and practice will suffer greater devaluation. This is particularly the case among the members of the international society, particularly the European Union, whose material and moral sympathy for Somaliland has been indispensable. Third, such a situation will further discount President Bihi’s declaration that his leadership will be drastically different from the previous regime in that national elections will be conducted on the appointed month and year. All in all, then, Somalilanders will do well to hear and act on these sagacious and highly relevant testimony from Vico, penned nearly three hundred years ago.
“That body politics is most fortunate, indeed, where the rigorous observance of the law that binds citizens together like the worship of an unknown god; where communal discipline is maintained with no less impartiality and firmness than in an army, where no soldier is allowed to question an order, his only duty being to await commands alertly and execute them.”
Given the preceding and the total dissonance with those who had voted for all parties with high hopes, Somaliland seems to be, as it were, “snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.” Combined, the above concerns, unless attended with potent alacrity and haste, are bound to corrode collective phronesis. Such, in the end, is the critical difference between what Sartre called “seriality” ‐ passive and thin commonality imposed from without- and civic, thick and active republicanism deliberately made within. All in all, then, 2019 is likely to be a year of big stakes and heightened anxieties.
About the Author Ahmed I. Samatar is James Wallace Professor of International Studies at Macalester College.
Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints of Somaliland Chronicle and it’s staff.
Is the idea of building a flour plant in Somaliland with daily production capacity of 200 tons a viable and a much-needed business in Somaliland? The answer is a resounding Yes! But should you invest? Is it fraud, a Ponzi scheme? Is your money safe? And can you trust them?
To try to answer these questions and more, Somaliland Chronicle has spent the past 2 months looking into Boodhari Mills operations across the globe, we have spoken to many of their Representatives in North America, Europe and visited their office in Mansoor Hotel in Hargeisa, Somaliland.
When we peeled away the layers and peered behind the glitzy curtains of fund raising events and wall to wall media coverage, here is what we have learned.
Is Boodhari Mills a Canadian Company
Boodhari Mills is registered in Canada as Boodhari Mills Group Incorporated and is classified as Non-distributing corporations with 50 or fewer shareholders – This is a privately owned company that does not sell shares to the public.
A non-distributing corporation is typically a corporation that does not file documents with a securities commission and does not sell shares on a stock exchange. These are commonly referred to as “private companies.”. This is how a company like Boodhari Mills is described by the Canadian Authorities.
So while Boodhari Mills executives assertion that it is a Canadian company, is only partially true. However, the Canadian securities regulators has no oversight and does not regulate their activities in Somaliland and most importantly investor funds are not protected by Canadian law.
The only thing that is Canadian about Boodhari Mills is a simple corporate registration that costs 200 Canadian dollars, a bank account at Royal Bank of Canada, a temporary office in a glossy downtown high rise ran by the Rostie Group and perhaps the founders passports.
The Fundamentals
There is always a level of risk an investor should be willing to build into their calculus when investing in any company. Extremely profitable conglomerates like Berkshire Hathaway and Amazon still carry a level of risk to its investors.
Boodhari Mills team does not provide adequate information to potential investors to accurately assess risk to their investment. Instead, you get a lot of flashy videos and slick presentations that are devoid of financial fundamentals.
The hardest thing to get out of any Boodhari Mill’s executive are answers to basic financial questions including the number of actual shares made available to the public and how much of those shares have been sold.
Unrealistic Profits
Talking to the Head of Investor Services Mustafa Adam, most questions are either glossed over with carefully crafted talking points that appeal to one’s sense of patriotism, are simply brushed aside as irrelevant and too complex for investors to understand or propriety information that cannot be shared with anyone including investors.
What is shared however is a rate of return that is as high as 35% on year one and could jump to 50% in 3 years or so. This astronomical number is based on faulty math.
Let’s analyze above assumptions, its important to note that the wheat commodity prices are based on May 2017 of 180 US dollars per ton, we checked historical prices and this is accurate.
However, the prices of wheat as of today are 213.48 US dollars per ton, that is an increase of 18.33 percent since May 2017.
And just for scale in dollars, 10,000 tons of wheat will cost 2,130,000 US dollars and the full 60,000 tons of wheat that Boodhari Mills will need to reach their stated goal is 12,808,800 US dollars. This is big money territory and the slightest miscalculation will have a huge impact on the company’s bottom line and potentially hurt investors.
All raw materials imports into Somaliland are tax exempt and this is good for Boodhari Mills’s bottom line, however, there is still a gross miscalculation in column A above, it assumes freight per ton will be around 15 US Dollars.
We have checked with multiple shipping agents and the price estimates we are getting is 70 – 77 dollars per ton for bulk grain transport from Odessa Ukraine to Berbera. There are potentially cheaper options but risking dry grains on a dodgy vessel to save money is a massive risk onto itself.
The investment brochure put out by Boodhari Mills team states the plant location as Berbera, however, recent reports indicate that construction has started in Abaarso, that is 182 kilometers away. If Abaarso is the actual location of the plant that means additionally ground transportation costs.
Simply put, the numbers do not add up.
Nonexistent World Bank Feasibility Study
According to the founder of Boodhari Mills Abdi Nur, the World Bank has studied their business plan for an entire six months and have confirmed its feasibility only to tell them they would not fund it due to Somalia being a failed state.
It is unlikely the World Bank would spend six months to study a business plan for six months only to tell you they would not fund it. This is not how the World Bank operates.
If there is a World Bank feasibility study of Boodhari Mills business plan, it is considered top secret and is not available for investors to make informed decisions.
Instead of a World Bank feasibility study that may or may not exist, Boodhari Mills has the next best thing, a world renowned economist who retired from the World Bank. Dr. Osman Sh. Ahmed.
Dr. Osman Sh Ahmed is an Advisor to the President of Somaliland HE Muse Bihi Abdi.
He is present at many of the company’s functions in Somaliland and is often introduced by his official title of “Economic Adviser of the President”. This lend’s the Boodhari team a much needed credibility. His role in the company is described as a Shareholder and a Sponsor.
There is more, this towering figure with direct access to the President also happens to the the older brother of the Founder and Managing Director of Boodhari Mills Abdi Nur.
The fact that Dr. Osman and the founder of Boodhari Mills Mr Abdi Nur are brothers, however irrelevant, is something that is not shared with investors. Instead, Dr. Osman’s connection to the government of Somaliland and his work with the World Bank might as well be printed on Boodhari Marketing posters.
If there is a link between the World Bank and Boodhari Mills it is not beyond the fact that the elder sibling has retired from it.
Government Endorsement?
There may not be any conflict of interest laws that prevent government officials from participating in private businesses, but encouraging the public to invest in a business without disclosing their interest is a violation of public trust and may send the message that the government supports a particular program.
This is something Boodhari Mills actually tries to convey in all of its messaging with a parade of government officials including Dr. Osman Sh Ahmed, who once again happens to the brother of Abdi Nur the Founder and CEO.
The second prominent government official who is directly involved with Boodhari Mills is Abdiqadir Iimaan Warsame, the Head of the Election Commission and a member of Boodhari Mills Treasury Committee. This is another link that Boodhari Investor relations team makes sure people know and that he too is an investor.
In fact, business associates of Mr. Warsame confirmed that within 10 minutes of meeting him for unrelated business, Mr. Warsame brought up Boodhari Mills and strongly suggested that they should invest. One of the associates stated that Mr. Warsame’s sales pitch went on to a painful awkwardness.
There are many other of government officials who have given a glowing endorsement to Boodhari Mills and encouraged the public to invest.
Here is Somaliland’s Representative in Sweden Mr Zakariye Hassan at Boodhari Mills’s Stockholm fund raising event. After heaps of praise on Boodhari Mills, Mr. Zakariye goes on to “On behalf of the Government of Somaliland, anyone who can afford economically should invest”.
We were unsuccessful in our attempts to reach Mr. Zakariye for comments on this article and in particular his speech below.
Boodhari Mills are particularly skilled in using government officials as props in their videos. Here is also Somaliland’s UK Ambassador Mrs Ayan Mohamoud with Boodhari Mills team in the UK in a video by Boodhari Mills.
Unlike Mr. Zakariye, Mrs Ayan has not gone as far as her counterpart in Sweden but simply explained the importance of locally owned manufacturing businesses and simply wished Boodhari Mills team a success.
Mrs Ayan responded to our query for this article “One of my responsibility is to encourage investment in Somaliland, and they seem very serous”.
Are there Laws to Protect Investors?
Unfortunately not at the moment. The Ministry of Investment is quite new and has only been in operation for a year and has been working to establish these laws and get them passed through the legislative branch.
This is an area that requires all the technical expertise to ensure investors are given the utmost protection to ensure Somaliland is an environment that is conducive to both domestic and foreign investment.
Sourcing funding from the public for investment is a novel idea but also requires laws to ensure those entrusted with people’s hard earned money act in a fiduciary manner.
Reputational Risk to the President
Businesses succeed but more often fail and it is part of the natural process of building an enterprise. This is an exceptionally risky business with too many moving parts, yet it could succeed despite the odds stacked against it by the naivete of the Boodhari Mills team. Sometimes, it is exactly the type of entrepreneurial spirit that is required to make difficult things happen.
Because the Boodhari Mills team have over sold their association with the government of HE President Muse Bihi Abdi, any issues that arises from this business will be linked to his government.
While it is imperative to encourage business investment especially by Somalilanders, it is equally important to protect investors with robust laws.
Somaliland President His Excellency Muse Bihi Abdi has been on a whirlwind tour of the country east, starting with Berbera followed by Burao and Odweyne. This is the first time the President has been to these regions since his election as the 5th President of Somaliland.
One of the major stops on the President’s itinerary was Burao where he met with elders to discuss the country future and his commitment to bring the country together after the bitter election contest almost a year ago.
In Burao, in an emotionally charged address, the President made his intention clear to the world and particularly to Somalia that Somaliland will not be tamed by anyone and their pleas at the Security Council will not stop Somaliland and that the country will stay on the path of advancing its agenda of peace and prosperity.
The President used Asasias Afwerki of Eritrea to make his point that even if the entire world is against you, patience is a virtue that Somaliland has in abundance and no matter how much Eritrea was pressed and squeezed it never deviated from its path and that the world has finally came to the negotiating table and gave in to what it actually wanted.
A central theme of the President’s visit to the Eastern regions was to strengthen governance strictures and unveiled many infrastructural projects.
Major opposition figures did not accompany the President on his visit but there are reports that there is a progress being made behind the scenes on couple of fronts including the possibility of compromise to ensure elections are held on time.
President Bihi has visited Somaliland troops in the frontlines in Tukeraq. The President reminded the troops of the enormous respect they command among the public and spoke of their role in securing the country’s borders.
While talking to the troops, the President touched on the recent conflict with Puntland and their claim over the territory of Tukeraq on grounds of tribal lineage and stated that all disputes must be discussed peacefully and that all Somaliland has done so far is to defend itself from multiple attacks.
On the same day, President Bihi visited Lasanod, the capital of Sool region where he was welcomed by community leaders.