In their first press statement since sworn in, the new National Election Commission has announced that the constitutionally mandated presidential elections scheduled for November 13th will be delayed. The Commission stated that elections will be held in nine months starting on October 1st, and cited time, technical and financial constraints as the reason for the delaying.
Somaliland National Electrol Commission scheduled to conduct the Presidential Election in 9 months, starting 1st October 2022, as the current scheduled date of 13 Nov, 2022 is not viable due to time, technical and financial constrains.
— Somaliland National Electoral Commission (SLNEC) (@SLNECHQ) September 24, 2022
The selections, confirmation by parliament, and swearing-in of the new National Election Commissioners have dragged on for months and were completed on September 7th, 2022. The previous Election Commission, led by Mr. Abdirashid Riyoraac, dissolved following a dispute among the commissioners and an accusation of corruption that prompted an investigation by the Auditor General’s Office.
The opposition has accused President Bihi of orchestrating the disbandment of the election commission to ensure elections are not held on time. President Bihi has countered the opposition’s accusation that the delay was caused by opposition members of parliament who failed to confirm replacement commissioners.
The opposition parties of Waddani and UCID have welcomed the statement from the Election Commission, although they have in the past opposed presidential term extension and staged protests where at least six civilians were killed and scores injured. It is unclear if the argument of which election, presidential or national political parties, comes first is settled between the President and the leaders of the opposition parties.
President Bihi has argued that the new parties currently amid registration are the only ones eligible to take part in Presidential Elections, whereas the opposition parties have argued that the President is trying to eliminate the current opposition parties and that the presidential elections come first.
Earlier this week, Members of Parliament approved a motion to amend the election laws Number 91/2022 and Number 14. The amendment ratified the combination of presidential and political party elections where the presidential elections will be participated by Waddani, UCID, and the ruling party of Kulmiye and the other parallel election will decide which of the new or existing parties will qualify as a national political party. Somaliland law stipulates that only three political parties can exist for a term of ten years. It is unclear if the Senate and President will approve the proposed amendment to codify it into law.
The National Election Commission’s statement that it cannot hold the presidential elections on November 13th, 2022 paves the way for the Somaliland Senate, which has the constitutional power to extend the presidential term to start deliberation and approve term extension for President Muse Bihi Abdi. In the past, the Senate has ignored the extension period recommended by the Election Commission and has given past Presidents two-year term extensions. This will be the sixth time presidential elections are delayed in Somaliland.
Despite the normalization of election delays and pitched political disputes in election season, Somaliland has earned high praises for its ability to hold one-person, one-vote elections and peaceful transfers of power. It is unclear if the latest delays in presidential elections and continued political jostling will effect in its quest for international recognition.
On December 28, 2018, Turkey named its former Ambassador to Somalia Dr. Olgan Bekar as a Special Envoy for Somalia and Somaliland Talks. Thought the former Ambassador to Somalia has had limited contact with the Government of Somaliland especially President Bihi’s current administration, he known to be very comfortable in navigating the political scene in Mogadishu.
In this report, we are examining Turkey’s history in Somaliland and Somalia and their role as mediators in the past talks.
Dr. Olgan Bekar, Turkey’s Special Envoy for Somaliland – Somalia with President Muse Bihi Abdi
Turkey is not the only country interested to have Somaliland and Somalia get back to the negotiating table and reach some sort of a settlement.
The topic has come up during President Muse Bihi Abdi’s meeting with the Ethiopian Prime Minister in Addis Ababa this week though it is unclear the extent to which they discussed the subject or if any concrete steps to get the two sides talking were agreed upon.
Somaliland and Ethiopian leaders meeting in Addis Ababa
It is important to understand that various stake holders have different expected outcomes of such talks and Somaliland might be the odd man out as it seeks to gain an amicable completion of its divorce from Somalia.
According to statement from Somaliland Presidency following President Bihi’s meeting with the new envoy Dr. Bekar on February 9, The President informed Dr. Bekar and the Turkish delegation that since past talks has not yielded any results all future dialogue between Somaliland and Somalia must include the international community.
Sources from Somaliland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation present in the meeting with the President and the Turkish delegation stated that President Bihi also informed the Turkish envoy that bringing a level of balance in how Turkey invests in Somalia and Somaliland is a good way to show Somaliland that Turkey is impartial and a friend to Somaliland.
To understand if Turkey can be an impartial and an honest broker on Somaliland and Somalia talks and its general standing in the world community, we have spoken to Mr. Michael Rubin who is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, where he researches Arab politics, the Gulf Cooperation Council, Iran, Iraq, the Kurds, terrorism, and Turkey.
President Bihi with Michael Rubin and Presidential Economic Advisor Dr. Osman Sh Ahmed
Somaliland Chronicle: Do you think it is wise for Somaliland to accept Turkey as a mediator in Somalia talks given the Turkish Gov support and massive investment in Somalia?
Mr. Rubin: Turkey does not have a track-record as an honest broker, and President Erdoğan has an ideological agenda which does not value Somaliland’s democracy and security. It is crucial to broaden any such mediation beyond a single country.
Somaliland Chronicle: In your latest article you wrote about Turkish support for terrorism and specifically for Al-Shabaab. What is Turkey’s reasoning for supporting Al-Shabaab?
Mr. Rubin: There is no single international definition of terrorism, and so Turkey often says it is combating terrorism, but denies groups like Al-Shabaab in Somalia or Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb in Mali are terrorists. Erdoğan’s goal is a more Islamist order. His fault, though, is confusing some Islamist movements with Islam itself.
Somaliland Chronicle: President Bihi recently met with a Turkish Envoy in charge of the Somaliland/Somalia talks, do you see any value in having Turkey to mediate or be part of those talks?
Mr. Rubin: Certainly, there is value in consultation with Turkey, as Turkey retains a diplomatic presence in both Somalia and Somaliland. President Bihi is correct, however, to seek a broader mediation rather than reliance on a single country.
As President Bihi informed the Turkish delegation, there is an imbalance in how Turkey provides and and invests in Somaliland and Somalia. Let’s break down what Turkey so far done in is to Somalia:
Turkey in Somalia
Security Influence
Turkey is Somalia’s true patron state, one of its most expensive efforts is to rebuild the Somali National Army from scratch and in its own image.
The largest military force in Somalia is of course AMISOM but Turkey’s military presence dwarfs that of any individual country in the AMISOM troops stationed in Somalia. In fact, Turkey’s largest military installation outside of Turkey is in Mogadishu.
Dr. Olgan Bekar with Somalia’s Prime Minister Hassan Khaire.
The 1.5 square mile Turkish military training installation is capable of churning out 1,500 fully trained and equipped soldiers at a time. This is according to Turkish and Somali sources familiar with the facility.
Below is a tweet from Turkish Embassy in Somalia showing images of Somali military personnel being trained in Turkey.
While Turkey rates as the 18th largest military in expenditure globally, it has a fledgling arms industry and rebuilding the Somali National Army represents a lucrative opportunity to supply it with the equipment it is manufacturing.
According to a recent VOA report, in what seems to be a clear violation of the United Nations Security Council’s weapons embargo on Somalia, Turkey has been supplying armament to units of the Somali National Army it has been training.
Public records show that Albayrak Group does not have a track record in managing world class ports, besides Mogadishu Port, it also manages and the Trabzon Port in the Black Sea on Turkey’s Northern border with Georgia.
Compared to Albayrak Group and the 2 ports it manages, DP World manages about 77 marine and inland terminals including Somaliland’s Berbera Port.
Other Turkish conglomerates such Enez-İnşaat and Kozuva Group are also active in Mogadishu.
Mogadishu’s Aden Abdulle Airport has been managed by a Kozuva subsidiery, Favori Airports LLC,since September 2013.
Mogadishu’s Aden Abdulle Airport
Here is the Somali Prime Minister Mr. Hassan Khaire thanking Qatar for funding road networks between Mogadishu, Afgoye and Jawhar and also thanking the Turkish Government, presumably Enez-İnşaat who according to him have “won” the contract to build said roads.
Turkey bills itself as Somalia’s rescuer and multiple visits by Erdoğan to Somalia especially in what is considered a relatively difficult time for the Somali people were designed to convey that exact message but economically, Turkey stands to gain more from Somalia and Mogadishu than it lets on.
Erdoğan and his wife in Mogadishu.
According to some estimates, the most profitable route in Turkish Airlines is the Mogadishu – Ankara route. And aside from the large visible projects, there are tens of thousands of Turkish citizens living and working in Mogadishu.
Getting involved in one of the least stable country in the world, Turkey is employing the concept of first mover advantage. This means less competition from the Chinese and other actors vying for influence in Africa.
Turkey heavy bet on Somalia and specifically Mogadishu is yielding economic results for Turkey beyond what Erdoğan has expected. In fact, Turkey’s largest embassy in the world is not where you would expect, like Washington DC, Brussels or Berlin, it is in Mogadishu, Somalia.
One of the most attractive features of Turkey’s patronage of Somalia is it is non-interference posture in Somalia’s domestic politics. It is worth nothing that Somalia ranked lowest in global corruption index and any country that is willing to look the other way is a welcome reprieve from the usual admonishment for President Farmajo’s weak administration.
Although this particular instance has been widely publicized by TIKA, Somaliland Chronicle has been unable to locate anything of note done in Somaliland either by Turkish Government or it is aid agency TIKA.
There are, however, multiple unfulfilled pledges by the Turkish Government in the past to help build roads in Somaliland according to multiple former and current Somaliland Government officials. None of these pledges have materialized.
One thing of note is that Turkey has been particularly adept in dangling a carrot of aid and development or simply inviting them to Istanbul on a whirlwind of meetings and tours to get them to buy into the importance of Somaliland and Somalia talks.
No other country has put so much effort to try to mediate Somaliland and Somalia as much as Turkey. In fact, this might be the only thing Turkey has done in Somaliland. There were many rounds of talks that hosted by the Turks in the past and personally supervised by President Erdoğan himself, unfortunately, these talks have been a disaster for Somaliland.
Turkey’s obsession with Somaliland is rooted in the simple fact that the rift between Gulf states of UAE and Saudi Arabia on one side and Qatar, Turkey and Iran on one side has been playing out in Somaliland and Somalia.
President of Somaliland HE Muse Bihi Abdi and DP World CEO Mr. Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem
The United Arab Emirates base in Berbera and DP World managing the Port gives the UAE and its ally Saudi Arabia an advantage and a foothold in the strategic 850 kilometers of Red Sea coastline with a direct access to Bab Al-mandab.
Turkey and Qatar has been spending heavily in trying to unseat the Emirates from both the military base and the Berbera Port by mobilizing the Somali government to oppose these deals. Additionally, Turkey has been advancing particular talking points that have been seeping into public discourse in Somaliland such as the importance of Somaliland – Somalia talks, the ramifications of hosting a foreign army in Somaliland via the UAE base and the deterioration of service at the Berbera Port. These same exact talking points are parroted by many civil organizations and opposition parties in Somaliland.
Somaliland has repeatedly signaled it’s willingness to talk to Somalia but its demand for the international community including the United States, United Kingdom and the European Union to get involved and President Bihi’s impossible task for the Turks to raise their level of support for Somaliland to something comparable to Somalia’s almost guarantees that Turkey’s role will be a lot smaller in future dialogue between the two countries.
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia — The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued a strongly worded statement in response to recent accusations from the Somali government, escalating diplomatic tensions in the Horn of Africa. The press release, published on July 26 in both English and Somali, refutes what Ethiopia calls “unwarranted and irresponsible statements” from Somali officials.
The timing of this diplomatic clash is significant, coming shortly after reports of militias in Somalia looting truckloads of heavy weapons. This incident appears to validate concerns raised by Somaliland regarding the UN’s decision to lift its arms embargo on Somalia.
Ethiopia’s statement emphasizes its long-standing role as an ally to Somalia: “For more than three decades, we’ve sacrificed for Somalia’s peace. Now, they repay us with baseless accusations.” This sentiment underscores the sense of betrayal felt in Addis Ababa and highlights the complex nature of regional relationships.
Somalia has floated the idea of alternative areas for an Ethiopian naval base, suggesting that their primary concern is not necessarily about preventing Ethiopia from accessing Somali territory. Instead, the core issue seems to be the potential implicit recognition of Somaliland’s sovereignty that the Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU represents. This nuance contradicts Somalia’s framing of the issue as a nationalistic defense of its territory.
Attempts at diplomatic resolution have so far yielded little progress. Turkey-mediated talks between Somalia and Ethiopia, held in Ankara on July 1st has failed to produce any significant breakthroughs.
The Ethiopian government expresses deep concern over the proliferation of illegal arms in the region, citing “porous borders and unregulated coastal lines” as factors contributing to the issue. This situation is further complicated by recent geopolitical developments.
Somalia has recently signed defense pacts with Turkey and Egypt, moves seen as attempts to counter the Somaliland-Ethiopia Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). Turkey has agreed to assist Somalia in developing its naval capabilities, while Egypt’s involvement adds another layer of complexity to regional dynamics.
However, experts note that neither Egypt nor Turkey has the capacity to mount meaningful or kinetic action in Somaliland, which lies outside their immediate sphere of influence. While these alliances may represent diplomatic posturing and an attempt to pressure Ethiopia into negotiations, the possibility of preventing the Somaliland-Ethiopia MoU by force seems far-fetched. Both countries lack the resources and technical capability to sustain such an effort over the long term and across such distances.
The Egypt-Somalia alliance is particularly noteworthy given the ongoing dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Ethiopia considers the GERD crucial for its development, while Egypt fears it will impact its share of Nile waters. Egypt’s support for Somalia is viewed as a strategic move to balance Ethiopia’s influence in the region and secure its interests in the Red Sea, even if direct intervention remains unlikely.
These developments may prompt Ethiopia to accelerate its deal with Somaliland, aiming to establish a strategic presence along the coast to counteract potential naval threats. The Egyptian Navy’s considerable strength in the region adds urgency to Ethiopia’s strategic considerations.
Meanwhile, Ethiopian troops continue to play a crucial role in Somalia as part of the African Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), working to prevent the country from being overrun by Al-Shabaab. This ongoing military involvement underscores the interconnected nature of security issues in the region.
In a chilling vindication of Somaliland’s warnings, truckloads of weapons have been looted in central Somalia, mere months after the controversial lifting of the UN arms embargo. This brazen attack has sent shockwaves through the region, confirming the worst fears of those who cautioned against the politically motivated lifting of the embargo and its potential to flood the volatile Horn of Africa with more arms.
The Somaliland government, which had vehemently opposed the embargo’s lifting, has renewed its dire warnings about the consequences of this ill-fated decision. In a forceful statement, Somaliland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs decried the UN Security Council’s resolution, asserting that it poses “grave risks to the stability and security of the Horn of Africa region.”
The recent incident in South Central Somalia has shockingly validated Somaliland’s warnings. A convoy carrying a vast arsenal was ambushed and looted, resulting in a disturbing spectacle reminiscent of scenes from “Lord of War.” Social media erupted with images of women and children brandishing an array of small arms, a chilling visualization of weapons proliferation. According to various news agencies, the incident claimed at least five lives.
Horn of Africa analyst Rashid Abdi dubbed it “the single most serious incident of arms proliferation in central Somalia.” This grim tableau of civilians, including vulnerable groups, handling military-grade weapons starkly illustrates the chaos unleashed by the embargo lift. The scene tragically vindicates Somaliland’s repeated warnings about the dangers of unrestricted arms flow in this volatile region, painting a bleak picture of a future where deadly weapons are commonplace even among the most vulnerable populations.
Adding to the embarrassment, on July 12, 2023, the United States donated weapons and ammunition to Somalia in its fight against terrorism. This decision has been criticized as another blunder, with fears that these weapons may end up in the hands of terrorist groups like Al-Shabaab. This incident underscores the risks of supplying arms to unstable regions without stringent safeguards. The U.S. Embassy in Somalia announced the donation as part of a broader effort to support the Somali government, but critics argue that it may inadvertently exacerbate the security situation in the region.
Somaliland’s government has long maintained that lifting the embargo would inevitably lead to weapons falling into the hands of terrorist groups, a scenario that now seems to be unfolding. The statement from Hargeisa pulls no punches, expressing profound doubt about Somalia’s capacity to manage and secure these weapons effectively.
The contrast between Somalia’s volatility and Somaliland’s stability couldn’t be starker. For over three decades, Somaliland has maintained peace within its borders, a fact that its government argues should have been given more weight in regional security considerations. Now, Somaliland fears that the influx of arms into the region directly threatens its hard-earned peace and stability.
As the situation spirals, Somaliland is calling for an urgent reconsideration of the decision to lift the arms embargo. The government advocates for a more nuanced approach to regional security, one that recognizes the complex dynamics of the Horn of Africa and the unique position of stable entities like Somaliland.
The international community now faces a rapidly escalating crisis. The need for immediate action—including enhanced border controls and a reassessment of the arms embargo decision—has never been more pressing. The recent looting incident serves as a stark reminder of the powder keg that the Horn of Africa has become, with the potential to undo years of stabilization efforts in a matter of moments.
As the UN Security Council deliberated on lifting the embargo, Somaliland’s warnings of catastrophic consequences fell on deaf ears. Now, with weapons flowing freely and falling into the wrong hands, those dire predictions have become a stark reality. The international community stands at a critical juncture, facing the urgent need to heed Somaliland’s renewed calls for action. Failure to respond swiftly and decisively risks plunging the region further into chaos, leaving it heavily armed and on the brink of widespread conflict. The Horn of Africa teeters on a precipice, with the specter of escalating violence looming large over its fragile peace.
The Somaliland Professionals Association of America (SLPA), a prominent organization dedicated to uniting and empowering Somaliland-connected professionals in the United States, recently hosted a landmark event, the “Empowering Tomorrow: Somaliland Professionals in Unity” summit. Held from May 24th to 26th, 2024, the conference brought together a diverse array of professionals, fostering cultural celebration, professional development, and networking opportunities.
“The SLPA conference in Atlanta was an unforgettable experience! Connecting with the brightest minds of the Somaliland diaspora, we celebrated our heritage and explored future opportunities. Visionary leaders like Dr. Edna Adan and Dr. Osman Sheikh Ahmed inspired us, while other discussions such as civic engagement, technology, and education highlighted urgent priorities. Thank you, SLPA, for a remarkable event and a brighter future for Somaliland!” said Sayidcali Ahmed, an attendee of the SLPA Unity Summit.
The SLPA, which comprises medical professionals, engineers, educators, lawyers, business leaders, entrepreneurs, and students, organized this three-day event to promote unity, cultural identity, and professional growth among its members while discussing Somaliland’s development.
The summit commenced with a vibrant cultural mixer, featuring a keynote address by Dr. Jama Muse Jama, founder of the Red Sea Cultural Foundation. Dr. Jama emphasized the critical role of cultural preservation in shaping Somaliland’s national identity, setting an inspiring tone for the conference.
Saturday’s main conference showcased eleven concurrent panels, covering a wide range of topics crucial to Somaliland’s future. The “State of the Nation” panel, featuring Dr. Edna Adan Ismail and Dr. Osman Sheikh Ahmed, provided a comprehensive overview of Somaliland’s current socio-economic landscape and future prospects.
Healthcare was a prominent focus, with panels discussing the challenges and opportunities in Somaliland’s medical sector. The Somalilander American Health Association (SAHA) presented their ongoing initiatives to strengthen healthcare systems in the region.
Technology and entrepreneurship took center stage in several sessions. Somali-American tech professionals shared their journeys and insights, while a business panel explored investment opportunities and strategies for economic growth in Somaliland.
The summit also addressed critical social issues. A panel on “Women in the Professional World” examined the unique challenges faced by Somali, Black women in their careers. Another session focused on civic engagement, featuring prominent figures like State Senator Kayse Jama, who offered guidance on public service and community leadership.
Education was another key theme, with discussions on fostering student success in both Somaliland and North American contexts. Jonathan Starr, founder of Abaarso School in Somaliland, shared exciting educational opportunities during the closing remarks. The Abaarso School has been a transformative force in Somaliland’s educational landscape, offering world-class education to Somali youth and preparing them for global opportunities. Mr. Starr’s leadership and vision have been instrumental in shaping the school’s success, fostering a generation of future leaders committed to Somaliland’s progress.
Jonathan Starr is the founder of Abaarso School in Somaliland, an institution that has achieved remarkable success in educating students from a region often overlooked. Starr, a former hedge fund manager, was inspired to make a difference after traveling to Somaliland and witnessing the potential of its youth. He faced numerous challenges, including skepticism from the local community and navigating cultural differences. Despite this, the school has produced students who have gone on to attend prestigious universities globally, demonstrating the transformative power of education.
The conference wasn’t all business – a gala dinner on Saturday night recognized outstanding SLPA members and sponsors, featuring performances by notable Somali artists. This awards ceremony highlighted SLPA’s commitment to recognizing and encouraging member participation. The event concluded with a relaxed BBQ on Sunday, allowing attendees to network and build lasting connections.
Reflections from key attendees, including Dr. Edna Adan and Liiban Yusuf Gaaxnuug, Deputy Minister of Health, highlighted the conference’s success in showcasing Somaliland’s potential and fostering a spirit of unity and progress among its professionals.
The success of this summit underscores SLPA’s role as a vital platform for Somaliland-connected professionals in America to connect, share knowledge, and contribute to both their professional growth and Somaliland’s development. With its well-organized structure, including committees for programming, finance, social media & marketing, logistics, and entertainment, SLPA demonstrated its capacity to host impactful events that bridge professional development with cultural celebration.
“The Somaliland Professionals Association of America (SLPA) has expanded to over 600 members across 41 states, forming strategic partnerships with similar organizations globally. We are unwavering in our commitment to providing specialized expertise across various industries to uplift our community and Somaliland. We invite you to check out the recap report about the event and reach out to collaborate with us on projects and initiatives where we can leverage our skills, including mentorship and volunteer programs. Join us in our mission to drive positive change and foster development for our ancestral homeland,” stated the organization’s executive summary.
The SLPA stands out as a beacon of progress by uniting a vast array of subject matter experts dedicated to contributing to Somaliland’s development. By facilitating collaboration between the public and private sectors, SLPA is injecting cutting-edge ideas and innovative solutions into Somaliland’s socio-economic landscape. This proactive approach contrasts sharply with the often-criticized NGO industrial complex, which can perpetuate aid dependency. Instead, SLPA’s efforts are focused on sustainable growth and self-reliance, empowering Somaliland to leverage its own professional diaspora to build a brighter future.
This groundbreaking summit marks a significant step in harnessing the collective expertise of Somaliland professionals worldwide. As the SLPA looks to the future, the energy and commitments fostered during this conference are poised to make a lasting impact on Somaliland’s development and its global standing, while strengthening the bonds within the Somaliland professional community in America.
The SLPA demonstrated meticulous organization with dedicated committees for programming, finance, social media & marketing, logistics, and entertainment, ensuring the event’s success and impact.
By hosting such an influential and well-attended event, SLPA has established itself as a central hub for professional development and cultural celebration, uniting Somaliland professionals in America and contributing significantly to Somaliland’s progress and global presence.
The Central Bank of Somaliland has issued a warning about nine fraudulent cryptocurrency apps: 2139, KUEX, CBEX, TRECART, KFC, ADIDAS, CROPTY, OKX, and MARAI.
Deputy Governor Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi revealed these apps are involved in pyramid schemes and other illicit activities.
These platforms do not comply with local financial regulations and pose significant risks to users’ funds.
The public is urged to avoid these apps to prevent financial losses.
This warning follows a similar incident in 2020 with fake Forex trading schemes.
The Central Bank promises strict legal action against promoters of these scams and encourages citizens to report suspicious activities and verify investment opportunities through official channels.
Hargeisa, Somaliland, July 11, 2024 – The Central Bank of Somaliland has issued a critical warning about a series of fraudulent cryptocurrency applications threatening the nation’s financial security. Deputy Governor Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi revealed nine apps engaged in elaborate Ponzi schemes, exploiting the growing interest in digital currencies.
The identified fraudulent apps are:
2139
KUEX
CBEX
TRECART
KFC
ADIDAS
CROPTY
OKX
MARAI
These apps operate by promising unrealistic returns, sometimes as high as 1-2% daily or 30-50% monthly. They feature sophisticated-looking trading interfaces that mimic legitimate cryptocurrency platforms, complete with seemingly real-time market data. To build trust, these schemes often provide small initial returns to early investors, using funds from new participants to pay out these “profits.”
A key feature of these scams is their aggressive referral programs, which encourage users to bring in new investors for additional bonuses. This pyramid-like structure helps the scheme spread rapidly through communities.
“These applications do not comply with our financial regulations and pose significant risks to our citizens’ funds,” Abdillahi stated. He emphasized that the difficulty in withdrawing large amounts is a red flag, often preceding the sudden disappearance of the app and its creators – along with all invested funds.
The use of cryptocurrencies in these schemes makes it particularly challenging for authorities to trace funds or apprehend the perpetrators, especially across borders. Social media platforms have become breeding grounds for promoting these scams, with fake testimonials and fabricated success stories luring in unsuspecting investors.
This crisis echoes a similar incident in March 2020, where Somaliland faced sophisticated Forex trading scams. The recurrence of such frauds highlights the ongoing challenge of protecting citizens in the rapidly evolving digital financial landscape.
The Central Bank has promised stringent legal action against anyone involved in promoting or facilitating these schemes. However, the borderless nature of cryptocurrency transactions complicates enforcement efforts.
As Somaliland grapples with this threat, authorities urge citizens to exercise extreme caution, verify the legitimacy of investment opportunities, and report any suspicious financial activities. The Central Bank emphasized that participating in these schemes could result in substantial financial losses, potentially destabilizing the nation’s economy.
This developing situation serves as a stark reminder of the risks inherent in unregulated digital financial services, even as cryptocurrencies continue to gain traction worldwide. The coming weeks will be crucial as Somaliland works to contain the spread of these fraudulent apps and mitigate their impact on the nation’s financial stability.
President Muse Bihi Abdi of the Republic of Somaliland welcomed a delegation led by the United States Ambassador to Somalia, Mr. Richard H. Riley, at the presidential palace today. The meeting focused on strengthening bilateral relations and addressing regional security concerns.
According to statements issues by Somaliland Presidency, the discussions centered on the robust relationship between Somaliland and the United States, the overall security situation in the Horn of Africa, electoral processes in Somaliland, and the recently signed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the Republic of Somaliland and the Government of Ethiopia.
I was honoured to receive U.S. Ambassador Richard H. Riley on his visit to the Republic of Somaliland.
We discussed regional affairs, fostering cooperation in the Horn of Africa, upcoming elections, and strengthening relations between Somaliland and the United States of America. pic.twitter.com/hX7Q7aHXn4
President Bihi provided Ambassador Riley with a thorough briefing on the current security situation in the Horn of Africa. He elaborated on the recently signed four-part agreement between Somaliland and Ethiopia. Regarding this bilateral accord, President Bihi emphasized its sovereign nature, asserting that the specific terms negotiated between Somaliland and Ethiopia fall within the purview of their respective governments. The President underscored the importance of respecting the autonomy of regional partners in forging mutually beneficial diplomatic and strategic relationships.
In an interview with Financial Times in May 2024, President Bihi dismissed Washington’s concerns that the agreement threatens to disrupt the fight against Islamist militancy, Bihi Abdi dismissed such claims as “baseless” and reaffirmed Somaliland’s commitment to securing stability and fostering international cooperation.
President Bihi provided Ambassador Riley with a comprehensive briefing on the upcoming elections in Somaliland, scheduled for November 13, 2024. He emphasized the significant efforts being made to ensure the elections proceed smoothly, acknowledging the challenges these elections pose for the nation. The introduction of a Biometric Voter Verification System (BVVS) aims to prevent electoral fraud, though it has sparked debate over its accuracy and potential voter disenfranchisement, particularly in conflict-affected areas.
Ambassador Riley, who has a distinguished career in foreign service, expressed the United States’ readiness to enhance cooperation with Somaliland, applauding the progress and democratic strides made by the Republic of Somaliland. The Ambassador reiterated his government’s commitment to supporting Somaliland’s development and democratic initiatives.
This afternoon, we had a fruitful meeting in Hargeisa with US Ambassador Richard H. Riley regarding the importance of holding Somaliland's upcoming combined elections on time on November 13th, emphasising the importance of political stability and security in the region. We also… pic.twitter.com/1jmJgXwQGB
— Cabdiraxmaan Cirro (@Abdirahmanirro) July 11, 2024
The Chairman of the main opposition party, Waddani, also met with Ambassador Riley, stating, “This afternoon, we had a fruitful meeting in Hargeisa with US Ambassador Richard H. Riley regarding the importance of holding Somaliland’s upcoming combined elections on time on November 13th, emphasizing the importance of political stability and security in the region. We also talked about regional political dynamics and Somaliland’s future development demands.”
Ambassador Riley reiterated the United States’ longstanding commitment to supporting prosperity and democratic institutions in the region. He encouraged regional cooperation and dialogue to resolve diplomatic and security challenges and emphasized the importance of adhering to election timelines.
Somaliland’s upcoming elections are marked by the introduction of a biometric voter registration system aimed at ensuring transparency and fairness. This high-tech approach, however, has sparked debates and posed logistical challenges, underscoring the political realities and complexities of Somaliland’s electoral landscape.
Ambassador Riley’s visit and engagement with Somaliland’s leadership may signal a nuanced shift in U.S. policy. Historically, the U.S. has adhered strictly to the “One Somalia” policy, recognizing Somalia’s territorial integrity, as repeated reiterated by Riley’s predecessor, Larry André, in 2022. André emphasized that the U.S. does not recognize Somaliland’s independence and supports a unified Somalia. However, Riley’s visit to Somaliland, despite the lack of formal recognition, indicates a potential shift towards a more flexible and pragmatic approach that prioritizes the United States national security interest, focusing on regional stability and cooperation.
During an exclusive interview with Somaliland Chronicle, Dr. Issa Kayd, Somaliland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, was asked about the seeming contradiction in Somaliland’s approach to diplomacy. Specifically, the question addressed why Somaliland continues to engage with ambassadors accredited to Somalia, who do not recognize Somaliland’s independence, potentially undermining its claim to sovereignty. In response, Dr. Kayd acknowledged the complexity of the situation, explaining that while Somaliland asserts its independence, it must also navigate the practical realities of international diplomacy. He emphasized that these interactions are necessary for Somaliland to maintain and expand its international relationships, even as it continues to pursue formal recognition. This pragmatic approach, while potentially seen as contradictory by some, reflects Somaliland’s efforts to balance its aspirations for independence with the need for diplomatic engagement on the global stage.
The Federal Government of Ethiopia, has commenced an extensive training program for approximately 8000 specialized personnel from the Republic of Somaliland, signaling a significant shift in regional security dynamics and spheres of influence.
In a landmark diplomatic maneuver on January 1st, a strategic Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed between Somaliland and Ethiopia, marking a pivotal shift in Horn of Africa geopolitics. While the full scope of the agreement remains classified, credible sources indicate it encompasses comprehensive cooperation across economic, security, and infrastructure sectors. Regional analysts characterize this MoU as a potential paradigm-altering development, with particular emphasis on its provisions for Ethiopian maritime access and formal recognition of Somaliland’s sovereign status. The agreement is believed to include clauses on joint resource development, shared security protocols, and integrated transportation networks, though these details remain unconfirmed.
The ongoing large-scale military training program is widely interpreted as a direct manifestation of the MoU’s security cooperation framework. The rapid initiation and unprecedented scale of this initiative, underscores the urgency and strategic significance both parties attribute to solidifying their alliance. This swift operationalization suggests a coordinated effort to establish a robust security partnership, potentially altering regional power dynamics and challenging long-standing geopolitical arrangements in the Horn of Africa.
The training program aims to bolster Somaliland’s defense capabilities through advanced instruction in asymmetric warfare tactics, command and control with focus secure communication, weapons systems familiarity, and combat readiness. This initiative is crucial for addressing regional security challenges posed by non-state actors and evolving geopolitical tensions. Somaliland government sources emphasize that the program also prioritizes force protection and enhancing security measures ahead of upcoming elections.
The training initiative is strategically linked to Ethiopia’s interests in safeguarding potential maritime operations, including the protection of naval assets in the region. This aspect underscores the broader geopolitical implications of the partnership.
Djibouti, a key regional stakeholder traditionally serving as a critical maritime logistics hub, has responded to this developing partnership with significant countermeasures. These include the closure of Somaliland’s diplomatic mission and indications of potential support for destabilizing elements in Somaliland. Economic measures against entities involved in the partnership are under consideration, potentially impacting regional trade dynamics and broader geopolitical alignments. Intensive diplomatic efforts are being pursued to counter the growing influence of the partnership.
The potential escalation of tensions, particularly Djibouti’s consideration of proxy warfare, could have far-reaching implications for foreign military presence in the region, including AFRICOM operations. The Horn of Africa hosts several strategic foreign military bases, crucial for counterterrorism efforts, maritime security, and regional stability. Any destabilization or proxy conflict could significantly impact these installations, potentially compromising their operational effectiveness and forcing a reassessment of their strategic value and sustainability.
Moreover, the introduction of proxy elements could create a more complex and unpredictable security environment, potentially leading to increased terrorist activities or regional instability that would directly challenge AFRICOM’s mission objectives. This could necessitate a recalibration of U.S. and allied military strategies in the region, potentially requiring increased resources or a shift in operational focus to maintain strategic interests and regional stability.
Somalia, contesting Somaliland’s autonomy, has also voiced opposition to the bilateral agreement, adding complexity to Ethiopia’s regional engagements and challenging established spheres of influence.
The comprehensive training program reflects multifaceted objectives aimed at enhancing regional security and safeguarding critical interests. By elevating military readiness, the initiative seeks to reinforce regional stability, counter external pressures, and maintain strategic positioning in this crucial area.
This training initiative underscores Ethiopia’s strategic intent to reshape regional security architectures amid escalating tensions and rivalries. Conducted under a formal bilateral framework, it reflects a proactive approach to security policy formation and efforts to address emerging challenges posed by various actors.
The program is poised to significantly impact security dynamics in the Horn of Africa, potentially redefining stability paradigms in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape characterized by shifting alliances and power contestations. Ongoing monitoring and analysis of these developments remain crucial for understanding the evolving regional landscape and its broader strategic implications, particularly in light of the potential for proxy conflicts and their impact on international military presence and operations in the region.
HARGEISA, Somaliland — The Republic of Somaliland is gearing up for a pivotal moment in its democratic journey, with Presidential and Political Parties elections slated for November 13, 2024. As the National Electoral Commission (NEC) forges ahead with preparations, the introduction of a cutting-edge Biometric Voter Verification System (BVVS) has ignited a firestorm of controversy, challenging the nation’s technological ambitions and political stability.
In a July 6, 2024 press release, the NEC announced a $7.5 million initial budget for the elections, showcasing Somaliland’s commitment to democratic processes. However, the spotlight has shifted to the BVVS, a dual-pronged approach combining traditional voter card checks with state-of-the-art iris scan technology.
While the NEC touts the BVVS as a safeguard for election integrity, early demonstrations have revealed troubling accuracy issues. Mr. Abdiasis Samale, first Vice Chairman of the ruling Kulmiye party, voiced concerns over high error rates, echoing growing apprehensions across the political spectrum.
The BVVS has become a lightning rod for political division. President Muse Bihi Abdi’s Kulmiye party champions the system as a bulwark against fraud. In stark contrast, the opposition Waddani party fears it could serve as a pretext for election delays, potentially disenfranchising voters.
Logistical hurdles loom large, particularly in Somaliland’s rural hinterlands. Critics question the NEC’s readiness to deploy and troubleshoot the sophisticated BVVS in remote areas, raising the specter of technical failures that could undermine the electoral process.
The contentious Las Anod and Sool regions, currently beyond Somaliland government control, add another layer of complexity. With 48,861 registered voters in Las Anod and 98,966 in Sool, the NEC faces a daunting challenge in ensuring fair representation amidst ongoing conflicts.
International donors, vital supporters of Somaliland’s democratic endeavors, have expressed reservations. Sources close to donor discussions reveal pushback against full-scale BVVS deployment, advocating instead for a measured, proof-of-concept approach to safeguard voter rights.
As November approaches, the NEC walks a tightrope between technological innovation and electoral integrity. The commission has issued stern warnings against interference and misinformation, underscoring the high stakes of this electoral cycle.
Somaliland’s 2024 elections stand as a critical test of the nation’s democratic resilience and technological adaptability. As the world watches, this self-declared republic in the Horn of Africa grapples with the challenges of modernizing its electoral system while preserving the fairness and transparency that have been hallmarks of its democratic journey.
The coming months will be crucial in determining whether Somaliland can successfully integrate its high-tech ambitions with the practical realities of its political landscape, potentially setting a new standard for electoral processes in the region.
Somaliland’s journey has been one of resilience and determination. Yet today, that hard-won stability hangs by a thread. Somaliland, once a beacon of democratic hope in the Horn of Africa, now stands at a critical juncture. Somaliland faces a critical moment. Scheduled presidential elections on November 13, 2024, offer a chance for stability, but delays could trigger a devastating collapse. The question on everyone’s lips: Can the National Electoral Commission (NEC) steer this ship away from the rocks of instability?
A History of Delays and Tensions
Somaliland stands at a critical juncture in its political journey, with the upcoming elections poised to shape the nation’s future. As we approach this pivotal moment, it’s crucial to examine the tumultuous events that have led us here and understand the stakes at hand.
At the heart of our current political impasse lies the two-year extension granted by the Upper House (Guurti) to avoid a leadership vacuum when the current president’s term expired in December 2022. While intended as a stopgap measure, this decision has only prolonged the uncertainty and heightened tensions.
The path to the upcoming elections has been fraught with obstacles and marked by confusion and political turmoil. A deadlock centered on whether presidential or local party elections should be held first, which coincided with the expiration of 10-year political party licenses continued for months before a final decision was taken to compile the two at once. In August 2022, public demonstrations erupted into violence, leading to tragic deaths of opposition supporters and targeted arrests.
As the statement continued, an armed rebellion occurred in Ga’an Libaax in 2023. This unrest resulted in significant casualties and property damage, leaving deep scars on our national spirit.
These events were a direct consequence of the political deadlock surrounding the sequencing of presidential and local party elections. The confusion and turmoil of the past years have eroded public trust in the democratic process and tested the resilience of our institutions
The current administration’s handling of the Lasanod situation in 2022/2023 serves as a stark reminder of the leadership failures plaguing our nation. After eight grueling months of conflict and heavy losses, government forces were forced to withdraw nearly 100 kilometers. This military setback not only redefined territorial control but also inflicted a severe blow on national cohesion.
This defeat underscores the urgent need for competent leadership and strategic decision-making. The Lasanod conflict has exposed critical weaknesses in our governance and military structures, highlighting the pressing need for reform and accountability.
The upcoming elections represent more than just a democratic exercise; they are a lifeline for Somaliland’s stability and progress. Further delays pose a significant threat to our social cohesion, economic stability, international credibility, and public trust in democracy. The potential consequences are dire. Frustrated citizens, already disillusioned by political maneuvering, may resort to civil unrest which can easily ignite armed confrontation. Investor confidence, already shaky, could evaporate entirely, leading to a serious economic freefall. Most importantly, Somaliland’s hard-earned reputation for democratic progress could vanish overnight, causing a significant loss of international credibility. Each delay chips away at our democratic process, risking a regression.
While past interventions by elders have proven successful, they highlight the need for robust democratic structures to prevent future stalemates. Now all parties are committed to the November date and further postponement is unacceptable.
By working together and prioritizing the democratic process, Somaliland can ensure a peaceful and successful election, solidifying its path toward a stable and prosperous future.
Biometric Verification: A Potential Hurdle
The debate surrounding biometric voter identification encapsulates the broader tensions gripping the country. While the technology promises enhanced security and accuracy, its hasty implementation could jeopardize the entire electoral process. The government’s recent proposal for biometric voter verification has emerged as a new obstacle. The opposition’s stand is clear: they support biometric verification if it can be implemented effectively within the remaining timeframe. Implementing such a complex system within a limited timeframe is a significant challenge. The opposition parties advocate for a focus on ensuring timely elections with a transparent process. Memories of the failed 2021 biometric pilot project loom large, fueling skepticism.
Delayed elections risk plunging Somaliland into chaos and could have disastrous consequences. Somaliland has already paid a heavy price for past electoral uncertainties, including deaths and armed rebellion. The current president’s extended term already exceeds the standard five-year mandate. The fixed election date, secured at a significant cost, cannot be compromised. Extending the president’s term further is illogical and undermines democratic principles.
At the center of this political maelstrom stands the National Electoral Commission (NEC). The future of Somaliland rests on the shoulders of the seven NEC members, who carry the hopes of a nation. The NEC shoulders the immense responsibility of conducting a free and fair election. The NEC must resist pressure from all sides – government, opposition, and international actors and must rise above partisan interests and prioritize the national good. Their decisions in the coming months will shape Somaliland’s trajectory for years to come. Their competence in managing the elections will also determine the country’s stability. Though the NEC Chairman’s commitment to conducting elections within the timeframe, without biometric verification if necessary, is a positive step, recent presidential pronouncements on election procedures overstep the NEC’s authority.
The eyes of Somaliland – and indeed, the world – are upon the NEC. All stakeholders must demonstrate leadership and unity to ensure peaceful and timely elections, safeguarding Somaliland’s fragile stability.
Somaliland’s Reputation at Stake
Somaliland’s hard-won progress is at stake. Somaliland’s history of conducting elections and upholding freedom of expression has earned it a reputation for relative stability in the volatile Horn of Africa region. Delays could lead to chaos, jeopardizing stability in an already volatile Horn of Africa region. Further delays risk jeopardizing this hard-won reputation and plunging the country into chaos.
Somaliland has historically resolved internal conflicts through consensus, earning a reputation for conducting elections and upholding freedom of expression. Somaliland has long prided itself on its democratic achievements. The American Freedom House’s Global Freedom Status report for 2024 placed Somaliland at 43/100 – “partly free” but notably higher than many of its neighbors. However, this score has been slipping, down from 49/100 in 2022 and 44/100 in 2023.
The current crisis in the Horn of Africa, with instability fueled by the Houthis in Yemen and internal conflicts in other countries, underscores the urgency for Somaliland to avoid similar turmoil.
Somaliland’s future rests on the successful conduct of the upcoming presidential election. The NEC’s ability to deliver a credible and timely process will determine whether the nation emerges from this period of political turmoil or descends into crisis and instability.
About the Author
Mukhtar Muhumed Hassan is currently serving as the Foreign Docket Secretary for Kaah Political party and an advisor to the party Chairman on political and Economic Affairs.
He has extensive experience spanning 20 years working with International NGOs and the UN in different capacities including heading Country Programs. He is among Somaliland intellectuals with a wealth of experience who have opted to join politics at a time when political parties are longing to have experienced and talented individuals. He can be reached mukhtar.xaddi[at]gmail.com
According to multiple sources, the Djibouti government has closed Somaliland’s diplomatic mission in its country. Reports indicate that the mission was billed an exceptionally high amount for water and electricity, totaling tens of thousands of dollars. Both services have been immediately disconnected, leaving the mission without utilities in Djibouti’s sweltering heat.
The move to render the Somaliland Diplomatic mission in Djibouti unusable during the scorching summer months due to the cutoff of electricity and water utilities is viewed as a strategic maneuver. It deflects attention from the diplomatic implications surrounding Djibouti’s recognition of Somaliland’s independence, despite the latter lacking international recognition. An official from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, speaking anonymously, highlighted this tactic..
This move comes amidst a significant shift in regional dynamics, particularly concerning Djibouti’s influence over Somaliland. President Ismail Omar Guelleh of Djibouti appears to be losing what many considered undue influence over Somaliland’s affairs. A key example of this influence was Djibouti’s practice of issuing conditional passports to Somaliland government officials, including members of Parliament, journalists, clerics, and anyone with influence. This arrangement gave Djibouti significant leverage over Somaliland, potentially allowing control over the movement of key Somaliland figures and influencing Somaliland’s policies and decisions.
The recent Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between Somaliland and Ethiopia on January 1st marks a departure from this status quo which according to Djiboutian government officials was unexpected. This agreement, which promises Ethiopia access to the sea through Somaliland’s shores in exchange for formal recognition, has significantly altered the regional balance of power. Somaliland government officials have confirmed that Djibouti’s embassy in Hargeisa has been virtually vacant shortly after signing of the MoU with Ethiopia in January this year. While Djibouti has been less vocal than Somalia in its opposition to the agreement, its actions, including the closure of Somaliland’s mission, suggest a concerted effort to undermine the MoU.
Economic rivalry has further inflamed the diplomatic crisis. The World Bank’s “Container Port Performance Index 2023” ranked Djibouti’s port a dismal 382nd out of 385 globally, while Somaliland’s Berbera port was ranked a commendable 82nd. This stark contrast highlights the growing importance of Berbera and likely exacerbates Djibouti’s anxieties about its future if Somaliland and Ethiopia forge ahead with their cooperation.
Compounding these tensions is Djibouti’s critical reliance on Ethiopia for basic goods, including vegetables, due to its own lack of natural resources such as water. Djibouti imports approximately 90% of its food, a significant portion from Ethiopia, making it heavily dependent on its neighbor for survival. This reliance further underscores the strategic significance of the Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU and Djibouti’s reactionary stance. It is unclear if Ethiopia will take issue with Djibouti’s current hostile posture, given the former’s reliance on the latter for the most basic commodities.
The sharp decline in Djibouti’s port ranking compared to Somaliland’s Berbera port signals a troubling forecast for Djibouti. Currently, Djibouti generates over a billion dollars annually from Ethiopia for port usage. However, this lucrative revenue stream is at risk. Should Ethiopia shift even a fraction of its transportation needs to Somaliland’s increasingly competitive and fledgling Berbera port, Djibouti’s economic landscape would be profoundly impacted.
On the kinetic front, sources indicate that Djibouti has begun arming border communities and creating conditions ripe for armed conflict to stifle a potential Ethiopian base on Somaliland’s coastline. Additionally, Djibouti is attempting to replicate the Las Anod scenario by supporting the Awdal State Movement, a group advocating for reuniting Somaliland’s western state of Awdal with Somalia.
“I have witnessed rebels issuing threats from within Djibouti, proclaiming their intention to ‘liberate Awdal.’ This was an unexpected development from our neighboring country,” stated President Muse Bihi Abdi of the Republic of Somaliland. He made these remarks during the inauguration of Somaliland’s national museum in the capital, highlighting the growing regional tensions. This is the first time and the only time Somaliland government has addressed Djibouti directly and its effort to prevent the implementation of the Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland.
U.S. Army Gen. Stephen J. Townsend, commander of U.S. Africa Command, meets with troops assigned to the Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa, Nov. 3, 2019, on Camp Lemonnier, Djibouti. Townsend visited to engage with key partners on the long-term stability in East Africa, oversee the multinational maritime exercise Cutlass Express and recognize U.S. service members in the region. (U.S. Air Force Photo by Senior Airman Codie Trimble)
Repercussions of armed conflict on Djibouti’s eastern flank would be far-reaching, potentially jeopardizing the stability of numerous foreign military bases, including the strategic AFRICOM (U.S. Africa Command) presence. Djibouti hosts several foreign military bases, making it a critical hub for international military operations in the region. Faced with the looming threat posed by the Somaliland-Ethiopia MoU and their burgeoning cooperation, Djibouti appears to be weighing all available options. This includes both diplomatic maneuvers and kinetic actions to safeguard its economic and strategic interests. Djibouti’s aggressive stance reflects its determination to prevent any future impact on its critical port revenues and geopolitical influence.
These developments point to a significant realignment in the Horn of Africa. Djibouti’s long-standing role as a mediator and influencer in Somaliland-Somalia relations appears to be diminishing. The Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU represents a bold move towards greater autonomy for Somaliland and a potential shift in regional economic and political alliances. As the situation continues to evolve, the global community is closely monitoring these changes. The outcome of this diplomatic crisis could significantly reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa, potentially leading to new patterns of regional cooperation and competition. The closure of Somaliland’s mission in Djibouti and its loss of influence over Somaliland underscore pivotal shifts in this evolving regional dynamic.
Attempts to contact Somaliland’s representative to Djibouti, Mr. Abdifatah Saed Ahmed, who is currently in the United Kingdom, were unsuccessful.
U.S. Marine Corps General Michael Langley, commander of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), offered a comprehensive assessment of Africa’s security landscape, with a particular focus on Somalia, during a briefing following the African Chiefs of Defense Conference held in Botswana.
Fresh from a visit to Somalia, General Langley presented a nuanced view of the country’s ongoing struggle against al-Shabaab. Despite reports of the militant group’s resurgence and territorial gains, he expressed measured optimism about the Somali government’s counterinsurgency efforts. “President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud shared with me their way forward,” Langley stated, acknowledging the fluctuating control in regions where the government had previously made progress. He emphasized the Somali leader’s commitment to a comprehensive strategy that extends beyond military action, incorporating federal member-states and local communities in a “whole-of-government approach.”
The general’s comments come at a critical juncture for Somalia as it navigates the complex transition from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) to full control by Somali national forces. “Any transition is challenging,” Langley admitted, “but they’re meeting that with solutions and building out their Somali National Army.” He outlined a measured, phased withdrawal of ATMIS forces, coordinated closely with the expansion of Somali military capabilities. However, he also warned that al-Shabaab is likely to test these evolving security arrangements, potentially through increased attacks in Mogadishu and other key areas.
Langley emphasized the importance of a multi-pronged strategy in Somalia, highlighting recent successes in disrupting al-Shabaab’s operations. “Our joint operations have been instrumental in weakening al-Shabaab’s grip on several regions,” he said, noting the collaborative efforts between AFRICOM and Somali forces in capturing key al-Shabaab leaders and dismantling militant networks.
The briefing also brought to light regional complexities beyond the immediate fight against al-Shabaab. A pointed question from the Somaliland Chronicle addressed the Somali government’s focus on the game-changing Somaliland-Ethiopia memorandum of understanding (MoU), in relation to its anti-al-Shabaab efforts. The MoU, signed on January 1st, aims to provide maritime access to landlocked Ethiopia and potential formal recognition for Somaliland, among other security and economic ties.
General Langley carefully sidestepped a direct response on this sensitive issue and particularly on the level of commitment of the Somali government to combat Al-Shabaab. Instead, he emphasized the broader security strategy, stating, “The Somali government is working on a comprehensive approach, involving federal and regional cooperation and engaging civil society.” He reiterated the importance of a coordinated effort to maintain stability and counter the insurgency effectively.
The briefing highlighted that the Somali government has invested significant efforts to stop the MoU and admitted to a major role in trying to destabilize Somaliland. In today’s cabinet meeting, the Office of the Prime Minister elevated what it referred to as “secessionism” to one of the highest threats facing Somalia, second only to terrorism. This signals a potential shift from Somalia’s efforts to diplomatically isolate Somaliland to a more direct and kinetic approach.
Shirka toddobaadlaha ah ee Golaha Wasiirrada Xukuumadda Jamhuuriyadda Federaalka Soomaaliya ayaa maanta lagu ansixiyay Qaraar ku saabsan Khataraha Amniga Qaranka, oo uu warbixin guud oo qiimeyn ah uu ka diyaariyay Xafiiska Amniga Qaranka.
General Langley’s briefing also touched on broader regional security concerns, including the growing threat of extremism in the Sahel and West Africa. He noted the increased activity of various extremist groups and the potential for these threats to spill over into coastal West African countries, underscoring the interconnected nature of security challenges across the continent and the need for coordinated, multinational responses.
Throughout the briefing, General Langley repeatedly emphasized AFRICOM’s commitment to an “African-led and U.S.-enabled” approach to addressing security challenges on the continent. This phrase, used multiple times by the General, encapsulates AFRICOM’s current strategic vision for engagement in Africa. It underscores a shift away from direct U.S. military intervention towards a more collaborative model that prioritizes local ownership and leadership. By positioning the United States as an enabler rather than a primary actor, this approach aims to build sustainable security solutions deeply rooted in African contexts and capabilities.
As AFRICOM continues to support counterterrorism efforts in Somalia and across Africa, General Langley’s briefing illuminates the complex interplay of military strategy, political reconciliation, and regional diplomacy that characterizes the security landscape in East Africa all against the backdrop of growing Chinese and Russian influence in the continent. With the planned withdrawal of ATMIS forces on the horizon, the coming months will be crucial in determining whether Somalia’s government can keep Al-Shabaab at bay or risk turning Somalia into Afghanistan 2.0 undermining the security of the region and further damage the United States’ interest and influence in the Horn of Africa.
The general’s careful navigation of sensitive regional issues, coupled with his emphasis on African-led solutions, reflects AFRICOM’s evolving approach to engagement on the continent. As Africa grapples with multifaceted security threats, the success of this strategy may well determine the trajectory of stability and development across multiple regions in the years to come.
