Investigative Reports

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Ethiopia’s poll has been pushed out by COVID-19. But there’s much more at play

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Mulugeta G Berhe (PhD), Tufts University

The decision by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to postpone the elections in Ethiopia has created a constitutional crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic is the context for this but not the cause.

The Ethiopian government decided to postpone the scheduled elections for an unlimited time as a result of the pandemic. But this extension comes with a unique problem, what the authorities are now calling a constitutional crisis.

The five-year term of the federal and regional legislatures, as well as their administrations, will expire on September 30. This brings about a distinct challenge.

Read more: Explainer: why Ethiopia’s federal system is deeply flawed

Beyond September 30, who will have the mandate to govern until an election can be held?

The ruling party presented four possible scenarios to circumvent the constitutional crisis: dissolving parliament; declaring a state of emergency; amending the constitution; and seeking a constitutional interpretation.

Of the four options, the ruling party was partial to constitutional interpretation. Parliament endorsed this on May 5, 2020. They have asked the House of Federation to issue an interpretation within a month. Most opposition parties with significant constituencies have rejected the decision.

The Oromo Federalist Congress and its six coalition parties have rejected it and called for a dialogue to find a political solution. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front rejected it as unconstitutional and said it would prepare for regional elections. It said this would avoid an illegitimate power grab by the incumbent.

In Ethiopia’s divisive ethno-political landscape, this year’s planned elections were always going to be a tricky affair.

Was the current impasse avoidable?

The National Electoral Board of Ethiopia was reorganised in 2018. Former opposition leader Birtukan Midiksa was appointed as its head. Despite these developments the government remained reluctant to hold elections on schedule.

Prime minister Ahmed stated that his government needed to consult all the political groups in the country to decide whether holding the election on time was appropriate.

In its most recent report, the International Crisis Group indicated that Ahmed’s tactics were reminiscent of the authoritarian past he had vowed to abandon. This included the arrest and harassment of activists and opponents.

It was only in October 2019 (following the Nobel Committee’s announcement that Ahmed had won the Nobel Peace Prize) that the premier stated explicitly that any delays in the poll would affect the legality and legitimacy of his government.

The electoral board and its new chairperson claimed that they had begun working on preparations for elections. However, an election timeline was only released in February this year. This goes contrary to custom whereby the board should have announced the calendar nine months prior to polling day.

In the February calendar, it planned to hold the elections on August 29, 2020.

Several organisations and political groups expressed their concern about the choice of date. Because of the rainy season, most rural areas are not accessible at that time. This would limit the participation of the majority of Ethiopians. The electoral board insisted on going ahead with the August date, claiming that any delay would result in a constitutional crisis because an un-elected government would be in office.

From this sequence of events it is clear that the constitutional crisis was already brewing before the additional problems posed by COVID-19. The late preparations and unrealistic choice of date already posed a very serious problem to the practicality and legitimacy of the elections. COVID-19 gave the government a golden opportunity to justify further delays.

The way forward

Analysts who follow Ethiopia closely, for example Rene LeFort – a writer, reporter and author of Ethiopia: An Heretical Revolution? – have indicated that Ahmed is increasingly personalising power. They say he has shown his aspirations to become the “big man” of Ethiopia at any cost. This would include operating outside the legal framework if necessary.

The Abiy administration has reversed early gains that were made by opening the political space. The resumption of intimidation and mass incarceration of opponents point to a return to the old authoritarian days. His regime is failing to deliver on its promises and is quickly losing its legitimacy.


Read more: Why Ethiopians are losing faith in Abiy’s promises for peace


When it dissolved the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front and replaced it with the Prosperity Party it arguably abandoned its legality. The Prosperity Party only has the façade of legality because the representatives who were elected under the front irregularly assumed Prosperity Party membership.

The postponement of the poll without proper political settlement could be the last straw. The country is at risk of balkanisation along ethnic lines.


Read more: Why Sidama statehood demand threatens to unravel Ethiopia’s federal system


The Tigray region has declared that it will go ahead with its regional elections. Neither the electoral board nor Ahmed’s government can legally stop the Tigrayans from holding elections.

Any attempt to stop the election by force could split the Ethiopian army along ethnic lines. Such an attempt could be a recipe for the Tigrayans to invoke article 39 of the constitution and declare an independent state. Several major opposition groups, including the largest coalition of Oromo national organisations, have also declared they might go it on their own beyond September 30. They refuse to recognise an illegitimate government.

The solution, therefore, is more political negotiation rather than constitutional “interpretation”. None of the provisions in the constitution, however much they are stretched for convenient interpretation, allow for the extension of the incumbent’s mandate beyond September.

An agreement on the poll date, as well as the type of provisional administration to bridge the gap between September and the next election, can only come through dialogue between all political parties and key civil society organisations. Anything less could spell the most severe crisis in Ethiopia’s modern history.

Mulugeta G Berhe (PhD), Senior Fellow, World Peace Foundation, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts, Tufts University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

Ministry of Education announces Exam dates for Somaliland schools

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Despite rapid raise in COVID-19 cases, the the Ministry of Education and Science announced that nationwide school exams will be held on Saturday June 27, 2020. The announcement was made by the Chairman of Examination Board Mr. Daud Ahmed Farah.

School closures was among the first steps taken by National Preparedness Committee for COVID19 on March 17 where the Ministry of Education and Science has been telecasting classrooms to 8th and 12th grade students from Radio, TV and social media platforms.

The announcement by the Exam Board, Mr. Daud Ahmed Farah did include logistical details or mention consultation with the National Preparedness Committee for COVID19 which the Minister of Education Hon. Ahmed Mohamed Diriye Egeh is a member or if additional steps such as social distancing will be factored into bringing large number of school children back to the classrooms for examination.

On May 10, President Muse Bihi Abdi admonished private school owners for defying the National Preparedness Committee for COVID19‘s order on school closure and endangering the public and announced that unspecified legal actions will be taken as a result of their reckless actions.

COVID-19 cases have been steadily on the raise in Somaliland since the testing equipment provided by WHO have become operational. It is unclear what measures the Ministry of Education and science have put in place to ensure the safety of students and prevent the further spread of COVID-19.

Since his appointment, the Minister of Education and Science Hon. Ahmed Mohamed Diriye Egeh has made significant structural changes to his portfolio although he has recently reappointed his predecessor and others as advisors despite their removal for incompetency and allegation of widespread corruption.

President Bihi Awards Medals of Valor to 12 Army Officers

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The President of the Republic of Somaliland HE Muse Bihi Abdi awarded medals of valor to army officers including Colonels, Lieutenant colonels and one Brigadier General. According to the announcement, this is the first time in Somaliland’s history medals of valor ara awarded.

President Bihi inspecting tank regiment at Dararweyne Military training Academy

In his 18 May speech, President Bihi praised Somaliland’s armed forces for their high moral, superior training and unwavering commitment to the security of the nation.

The recipients of Somaliland first ever Medals of Valor are:

  1. Brigadier General Ali Bare Hussein
  2. Colonel Ismail Farah Awale Dolal
  3. Colonel Ahmed Hurre Hariye
  4. Colonel Mahad Farah Elmi (Anbaashe)
  5. Colonel  Abdillahi Sufi Ahmed
  6. Colonel  Yusuf Iman Diriye
  7. Colonel  Faisal Abdi Botan
  8. Colonel  Abdillahi Ibrahim Hassan
  9. Lieutenant colonel Kayd Osman Mohamed
  10. Lieutenant colonel Ibrahim Ali Sabir
  11. Lieutenant colonel Mohamed Abdillahi Artan (Rujiye)
  12. Lieutenant colonel Abdillahi Mohamed (Dhaga-weyne).

The award ceremony was held during the 18 May celebration held at the Presidential Palace which was closed to the public and broadcast live.

The President of the Republic of Somaliland Addresses the Nation on the Occasion of 18 May

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The celebration event for the occassion of May 18 independence of the Republic of Somaliland was closed to the public and broadcast live due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The President speech touch on many topics including national security, justice reform, the COVID-19 pandemic and Somaliland and Somalia talks as well.

President Bihi Pardons 365 Inmates for the Occasion of Independence Day

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The President of the Republic of Somaliland HE Muse Bihi Abdi pardoned 365 inmates for the 18 May. The statement from from the President’s office stated that the pardon is for inmates charged with minor offences.

The statement adds that the pardon does not affect civil penalties resulting from their criminal charges as enshrined by the Article 92 of the penal code.

Although the pardon did not specifically mention COVID-19, sources indicate that concerns of the spreading disease is a major concern for the President and may be a factor in his decision to pardon inmates.

This is the second Presidential pardon this year since President Bihi has pardoned 574 inmates on April 1st 2020.

Chairman of Waddani Opposition Party Addresses the Nation on the Occasion of 18 May

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The Chairman of Waddani opposition party Mr. Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi “Cirro” addressed the nation on the occasion of 18 May.

Chairman Abdirahman Cirro started his address with a note on the importance of 18 May, the day that Somaliland regained its independence. He added that 18 May is a day that weighs on our hearts but due to health concerns we are unable to celebrate it.

“You are heroes, both women and men, you are the backbone and the pride of the nation and may Allah watch over you and your families” said Chairman Cirro when congratulating the nations armed forces on the occasion of 18 May.

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The chairman also sent congratulations to national parties, the legislative councils, the government and the public at large and specially the diaspora “whose role cannot be overlooked” and ended with “Long Live Somaliland”.

Mr. Abdirahman Cirro noted the difficult time faced by Somaliland interms of economy and health and changes in global migration and implored the public to look out for the vulnerable people among us.

On COVID-19 pandemic, Mr. Abdirahman Cirro said that death and the infection rate are raising in our country since the testing equipment became operational. He noted that the disease is now at a local transmission phase where people with no travel history are testing positive and suggested below steps in addition the existing prevention steps of COVID-19 pandemic

  1. Raise the alert and prevention level to the highest.
  2. Redouble awareness efforts and ensure it reaches all regions, districts and towns.
  3. Fully mobilize healthcare workers and prepare additional healthcare centers.
  4. Acquire additional COVID-19 testing equipment and ensure their availability in all regions and increase testing of the public for COVID-19
  5. Regular inspection by law enforcement and awareness teams of public gathering sites.
  6. Ensure the distribution of COVID-19 aid received so far to the pubic as much as possible.
  7. Consistantly update the public by the COVID-19 committee
  8. Send urgent appeal to the international community and WHO.

Chairman Cirro congratulated those who have complied with the COVID-19 prevention steps including the educators who closed learning centers, the khat traders and the religious community who have stopped the trawih and tajahud prayers.

He also thanked everyone who has so far send COVID-19 aid to Somaliland including WHO, United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Qatar, Telesom, World Remit, Mr. Abdourahman Boureh.

Chairman Cirro closed his address with a note on the repeated crisis in the country’s east in Eil Afweyn and said that hostilities is not in our best interest and have appealed the elders, chiefs, the religious leaders and the intellectuals to curb the hostilities as quickly as possible.

Qatar Delivers COVID-19 Aid to Somaliland

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A Qatari Air Force Boeing C-17 Globemaster III touched down in Egal International Airport to deliver 2.3 tons of COVID-19 aid to Somaliland. The aid includes face masks, gloves and personal protective gear for healthcare workers among other items.

The aid from Qatar was accompanied by the Qatari Ambassador to Somali Mr. Hasan Bin Hamza Asad Mohammed and other diplomats who were received at Egal International Airport by the Director General of the Ministry of Health Dr. Mohamed Abdi Hergeye and the Director of the Emergency Preparedness Mr. Faisal Ali Sheikh.

It is unclear if the Qatari delegation met with President Muse Bihi Abdi or any other government officials and if there is a change in Somaliland’s previous position and its alliance with United Arab Emirates and its milestone contract with DP World to manage Berbera Port.

Previously the United Arab Emirates has sent similar aid to Somaliland and the neighboring Somalia’s Puntland state. It was not immediately clear if Qatar sent similar aid to Mogadishu or other parts of Somalia.

Officials reached for comment on the Qatari delegation and aid declined to comment. There were no official statement from Somalia’s Federal Government which has in the past objected all direct engagement with Somaliland.

Somaliland Government Dismisses Somalia’s Claim of Locust Prevention Aid to Somaliland

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Somaliland’s Minister of Agricultural Development Hon. Ahmed Mumin Seed dismissed a statement to VOA by Somalia’s Minister of Agriculture Mr. Said Hussein Iid that it conduct aerial desert locust control operations in Somaliland territory.

The project was unvailed yesterday by Somali Federal Government officials with the arrival of the two helicopters at Mogadishu’s Aden Ade Airport yesterday as part of a USAID package combat huge swarms of desert locusts in East Africa.

Minister Seed stated that Somali Federal Government officials merely sought photo opportunity with the helicopters and that Somaliland is a separate nation whose aid is not delivered through Somalia. He added that aid to Somalia comes through Berbera port occasionally and because they understand international relations facilitate its transfer to the people of Somalia.

The Minister sought to clarify questions surrounding the operation of these helicopters in Somaliland airspace where some have questioned the project which Somaliland is not mentioned in FAO or USAID project documents.

The funding will support operations to control desert locusts in three of the most affected countries: Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia. Programs aimed at reducing the size of the infestations are critical to mitigating a potentially larger impact on people’s ability to earn a living and provide food for their families in the future.” FAO said in a statement released on March 16, 2020 to announce 19 million USD from USAID.

The 19 million USD from USAID is in response to an appeal by FAO on February for funding. Somaliland is shown as part of Somalia in FAO appeal to the International Community for funding.

Efforts to reach Mr. Seed the government’s to clarify if Somaliland government will allow these helicopters to operate in Somaliland and if there have been prior consultation with Somaliland government have been unsuccessful.

President Bihi Updates the Nation on COVID-19

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The President of the Republic of Somaliland HE Muse Bihi Abdi spoke to the nation on COVID-19 and gave details on the numbers and what his government is doing about the fast spreading pandemic.

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The President spoke about testing and contact tracing and how it helps preventing the spread of COVID-19 and added that Djibouti is an excellent example for Africa and the Horn of Africa in how it has handled the spread of the disease.

President Bihi also spoke about testing even if one is not infected, although he did not mention how this would be possible since current testing capacity is very limited. He also spoke about the possible stigma that may come with being suspected of having COVID-19 as was the case with tuberculous or AIDS.

On social distancing, face masks and hand washing, the President said it is so far the only prevention method that is universally agreed on that helps the spread of the virus.

The President equated the disease to a disaster and such as war or a tornado and implored the public to take the direction of the healthcare professionals.

There has been confusing messaging about the status of mosques and if they should be shutdown to prevent the spread of the disease, so far that has not happen and President Bihi stated in his speech today that the religious scholars are meeting the COVID-19 committee today to discuss this further adding “It is puzzling why they are still gathering people in the mosques for traweeh prayers while the disease is spreading and those who are listening to them, do they not believe in science, do they not accept the facts, do they want to get folks sick, what are they thinking is the question”.

Finally, the President spoke about an inciden that occured yesterday where some private schools have called students to sit for an exam despite the direction of the Ministry of Education and Science that no exams will be conducted “Are they tring to educate the children or are they trying to kill them?” said the President about the owners of these private schools and added that no exams will occur until the healthcare professionals deem it safe and that unspecified legal steps will be taken against these violators.

At the end of his speech, the President called up on the nation to listen to the advice of the healthcare professionals.

Ministry of Health Confirm 6 Additional COVID-19 Cases and One Death

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The Ministry of Health Development announced an additional 6 COVID-19 cases and one death. The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has risen for the 3rd day in a raw to a total of 40 total confirmed cases and 5 deaths.

Rise in case could be attributed to testing equipment recently donated by WHO and has recently came online to conduct tests locally here in Somaliland.

The brief statement from the Ministry of Health Development stated that 4 of the cases are in Hargeisa while 1 is from Berbera and the other from Burao.

https://www.facebook.com/Wasaaradda-Horumarinta-Caafimaadka-JSL-103133851197165/?epa=SEARCH_BOX

Although the ministry did not say how many tests it conducted, previous statistics put out by the ministry showed 380, meaning the 6 new positive cases are out of 16 tests conducted by the ministry. There is no statement from the National Preparedness Committee for COVID-19 on the rising cases of COVID-19 in Somaliland.