Coronavirus won’t kill globalization – but a shakeup is inevitable

May 25, 2020

Jun Du, Aston University; Agelos Delis, Aston University; Mustapha Douch, Aston University, and Oleksandr Shepotylo, Aston University

The COVID-19 pandemic is now expected to trigger the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Many argue it could unravel globalisation altogether.

Globalisation relies on complex links – global value chains (GVCs) – that connect producers across multiple countries. These producers often use highly specialised intermediate goods, or “inputs”, produced by only one distant, overseas supplier. COVID-19 has severely disrupted these links.

Although the global economy was fragile at the start of 2020, many hoped for increased international trade following the US-China Phase One trade deal. COVID-19 has scuppered those hopes, bringing the world’s factories to a standstill and severely disrupting global supply chains.

China plays a key role in this. According to Chinese customs statistics, the value of Chinese exports in the first two months of 2020 fell by 17.2% year on year, while imports slowed by 4%.

This drop in Chinese trade impacted some markets more than others. Comparative figures between the first two months of 2019 and the first two months of 2020 reveal a collapse in Chinese trade with the EU and US. Chinese exports to the EU fell by 29.9%, while imports from the EU declined by 18.9%. Exports to and imports from the US tumbled 27% and 8% respectively.

These substantial declines are likely related to the strong interdependence between European and US firms and Chinese ones.

The scale of the shock

To understand the magnitude of the supply shock in China and its global propagation, the Lloyds Banking Group Centre for Business Prosperity (LBGCBP) at Aston University has mapped China’s global trading networks using official Chinese data.

In 2019, the US had the highest trade dependence on China, followed by seven European countries and Japan. By 2020, European countries had moved even further up the rankings.

As the pandemic continues, the worst affected Chinese exports include capital goods such as nuclear reactors, intermediate goods like iron, and labour intensive final goods such as furniture.

The most disrupted Chinese imports include intermediate goods such as organic chemicals, a likely result of factory closures in China, and capital goods like electrical machinery. Hardest hit were precious stones and metals, highlighting the emergence of a sophisticated middle-class of Chinese shoppers and how COVID-19 has reduced their demand for luxury goods.

Trade has tumbled between the EU and China. Shutterstock

Interestingly, Chinese imports of meat and mineral fuels increased sharply in 2020. The first can be explained by China’s weakened domestic supply of food during lockdown. The second highlights China’s growing demand for crude oil.

Four product categories have been particularly hard hit as both imports and exports: nuclear reactors, electrical machinery and equipment, plastics, and organic chemicals. These categories include some commonly used intermediate goods (those that are used for producing other goods).

Under normal circumstances, such goods would be traded back and forth between China and other countries as part of the heavily interconnected global production system. This significant drop in their international trade highlights the devastating effect of COVID-19 on GVCs.

An uncertain future

But an unprecedented, synchronised and likely deep fall in demand is now developing. And China was again among the first to feel its impact.

Chinese workers returned to work in April but many no longer had jobs. Widespread cancellations of international orders and delayed payments have led to liquidity problems and mass closures of businesses reliant on global demand.

Investment also tumbled. During February and March 2020, official Chinese statistics report 24.4% fewer new foreign trade enterprises established in China compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, 12,000 existing foreign trade enterprises closed down.

Agriculture, logistics and those producing raw materials, textiles and clothing have been hardest hit. But, on a more positive note, there has been a surge in demand for medical supplies.

Many are now highlighting the dangers of relying on global value chains – and in particular, those linked to China – leading to talk of “de-globalisation”.

The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, for example, has called for the “shortening” of global supply chains because the EU is too dependent on a few foreign suppliers. Similarly, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, has argued for a strengthening of French and European “economic sovereignty” by investing at home in the high tech and medical sectors.

So is this the end of globalisation? No. But a reconfiguration of GVCs is inevitable.

A way forward

Global supply chains are extremely complex, and no sector or country is an island.

Complex: a sample network of GVCs. World Input-Output Database (WIOD), 2014. Based on author’s calculation., Author provided

But GVCs follow the principle of efficiency. They are the result of businesses sourcing the best possible inputs to meet their production needs at the lowest cost – wherever those inputs come from.

This is good news for globalisation’s survival. While efficiency remains the main target, businesses will continue to shop globally.

Concerns about an overreliance on complex GVCs are justified in the case of products related to national security, such as medical supplies. Many countries will now ensure they can produce such goods without relying on imports.

Nobody can predict the next crisis. But the most reliable and efficient insurance by far is to build a strong international cooperation network. As yet, global political consensus on this remains elusive. But that doesn’t mean we should ever lose the ambition.

Jun Du, Professor of Economics, Centre Director of Lloyds Banking Group Centre for Business Prosperity (LBGCBP), Aston University; Agelos Delis, Lecturer in Economics, Aston University; Mustapha Douch, Research Fellow in Economics, Lloyds Banking Group Centre for Business Prosperity (LBGCBP), Aston University, and Oleksandr Shepotylo, Lecturer in Economics, Aston University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

Education during Covid-19 lockdown: the Challenges and Consequences of Online Teaching Approach in Somaliland

Staff

May 23, 2020

The Coronovirus disease (Covid-19) is caused by widespread socio-economic impacts in almost all spheres of life throughout the globe. This fatal virus has so far infected more than 2.5 million people and caused about 339,000 deaths in almost all countries around the world. Due to unavailability of a vaccine and effective medicines, most of the countries around the world are implementing the strategy of “lockdown” to slow the spread of Coronovirus. More than a third of the earth’s population is under some form of restriction in an effort of limiting the number of cases and slowing the spread of virus. The lockdown is perhaps the only way left to fight virus, which has forced more than half of the human to stay at home and stay healthy.

This pandemic disease has affected education system worldwide, leading to the total shutdown of schools, colleges and universities. Most of governments around the world have temporarily closed all educational institutions in an effort to stem the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to UNESCO research, as of April 21, 2020, approximately 1.723 billion students have been impacted due to school closures in response to the pandemic, 191 countries have implemented nationwide closures and impacting about 98.4 percent of the world’s student population.

In response to significant demand, UNESCO has suggested the use of distance learning programs and open educational applications and platforms that schools and teachers can easily use to reach learners remotely and limit the disruption of education.

In Somaliland, the whole country closure of the education intuitions was announced during the second week of March although the closure was a bit earlier. Initially, the closure was for four weeks but now the National Preparedness Committee for Covid-19 has been extended another four weeks starting from 18 April, 2020, till May 15, 2020 – and perhaps schools and colleges will remain off till May 31 for the Ramadan and Eid-ul-Fitr vacation. The educational term in most of the schools and colleges was near at the final year.

Urgently to respond the staidness issue of covid-19 lockdown and in an attempt to save students from educational losses, the Ministry of Education and Science (MoES) implemented online based education and urged the primary and secondary schools to initiate online classes. Most schools have been applied distance learning system and thousands of students in cities and towns are glued to Television broadcasts and Smartphone screens as teachers take to online apps for lectures, tutorials and assessments. The Somaliland Ministry of Education and Science with the help of National Television launched Platform to support the students learn at home with the teachers delivering lectures via SLNTV and Radio without interruption. Most Teachers of the private schools have started to upload lectures through Google Classroom, YouTube, Facebook pages, WhatsApp and private televisions, so that students can go through these lessons at their convenience.

The challenges of online based learning in Somaliland.

In the light of National Preparedness Committee for Covid-19 guidelines, the education institutions of the country are trying to engage students through different online classes via the communication tools (TVs and Radios) and various social media platforms. It is confirmed that the online mode of teaching is not applicable for every student.

The traditional system of face to face teaching requires class activities and out of class activities. The teachers remain committed to guide students for building their ideas on their discipline. The significant advantage for students in such environment remains the presence of instructors, his motivation, support and guidance. In the online mode, it is a challenge for the teachers to perform the above mentioned roles. He can only respond by both synchronous and asynchronous design of mode in which he may be adopt a strategy to define, explain and exemplify the ideas.

Apart from that, many students, especially those living in rural areas, lack the steady internet connection and the devices to be able to learn remotely. Huge number of children has not taken part in online lessons during Coronovirus lockdown. However, all students might not have communication tools and internet connections in their homes and those who do may not afford expensive internet packages.

Furthermore, while mobile phones and Televisions can enable learners’ access to information, connect with their teachers; about half of the learners live in locations not served by mobile networks, almost in remote areas. Even teachers in some regions where Technology and other distance methodologies are less available, the online teaching has been even more difficult or impossible at this time of unprecedented educational disruption. Some households, Parents are not sure whether their children are studying or just spending time on the screen due to lack of knowledge capacity. As a ministry of education, it is important to conduct daily assessment of distance learning practices and follow up regularly with each student and pay special attention to disadvantaged background students, so they are not left behind.

The biggest challenge is being created around lab classes. Most of the lab classes of technical disciplines can’t be conducted in online. This is a challenge confronted for both teachers and students. Some schools are not going to carry on the education in online platforms considering psychological condition, accessibility availability of internet, and financial condition of the students as they may be the barriers of online education.

Government should be considered the element of “Social justice” and remove “social inequalities’ while making and formulating any policy. The internet is still a luxury for many households, while students from low income families are not able to quickly adjust towards online teaching. The problem is particularly impacted for students living in marginal rural areas. The authorities of education sector in Somaliland should plan to address most of these issues and try to convince internet companies to offer cheaper internet bundles for students during Coronovirus lockdown. This current situation requires active and supportive participation to create an enabling online environment for teaching and learning, which is best for the all students who are country’s asset and potential to adopt new ways of teaching and learning in these times.

Online medium based teaching is only effective for those who do have access to the right technology; there is evidence that learning online can be more effective in a number of ways. The main problems are a lack of capacity of some instructors and the affordability of the internet by the students. The online teaching system is being effectively used in technologically developed countries during COVID-19 lockdown but it cannot be fully followed in Somaliland. It has experienced its own problems, and should have to find local solution keeping in view the socio-economic conditions of all students.

About the Author
Adam Duale holds Msc Degree in Development studies from Alpha university, Hargiesa-Somaliland and is currently MA candidate student at United International University in Dhaka, Bangladesh. he studied social work affairs with special interest in education sector. He can be reached Ademduale[@]gmail.com

Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints of Somaliland Chronicle and it’s staff.

Notice: This article by Somaliland Chronicle is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. Under this license, all reprints and non-commercial distribution of this work is permitted.

The Political anxiety and tension in Somalia election 2021.

Staff

May 23, 2020

The tensions between the Federal Government of Somalia, regional States, and oppositional parties are getting each day more complicated while the election is approaching, however, it is not clear how or what model of elections will take place in the country.

The president of Somalia Mohamed Farmaajo since he took office in earlier 2017, his government faced a lot of challenges and tensions against his administration, as a result, the main actors are the regional states, oppositional parties, neighbor countries as well as Al-Shabaab group. There are a lot of incidents that make the situation worst in which the FGS started and create tensions, for instance, the government interfered and changed the previous speaker, Mohamed Sheikh Osman Jawari, after a dispute with the president Farmaajo. Furthermore, the government try to assassinate one of the main oppositional parties in the country Abdishakur Warsame (Wadajir Party leader) and killed his security guards at midnight. In addition to that, the government signed an agreement with the federal government of Ethiopia related to the ports of Somalia while the government still did not show any kind of agreement and MOU in the press and the parliament. This creates a lot of tensions not only between the government and the opposition parties but the whole country, following this, the statement between Farmaajo and Abiy Ahmed did not name on which ports the two-sided would develop in the future.

In earlier, 2019, the former president of Somalia Sheikh Sharif was barred from boarding a flight to Kismaayo, Jubbaland at Mogadishu airport, hence, these events create a conflict between FGS and former president of Somalia while former president Hassan Sheik stated that the government is using airspace as a political weapon that can have a serious ramification on the political stability and unity of the country.

The relation of the Farmaajo administration with the regional states at this time is very complicated, for instance, in 2018, five regional states cut ties with central gov’t due to interfering with the region’s issues, failure to implement security architecture and not fulfilling political agreements. In doing so, in 2020, Jubaland state and Puntland state have zero relations with the Farmaajo administration. In earlier March 2020, for these above reasons, the main opposition parties held a conference in Turkey; the officials of the national forum have finally decided to hold one-party and to have one candidate in the 2021 elections. It’s clear that the oppositional parties are working together to resolve the current political and security issues that this country is facing and to win the next election in 2021.

FGS and its war on Somaliland

On the other hand, Somaliland who have been exercising their administration since 1991 and have been working in the international community with regard the development is still facing problem with regard to talks with Somalia. Somaliland stated that Farmaajo’s government is the worst government in terms of the violating former agreement between them. For example, Under the tripartite agreement signed in March, Ethiopia acquired a 19% stake in the port, joining Somaliland and DP World of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) under a 30 year concession, Somalia declared the agreement ‘null and void’ saying Somaliland had no authority to enter into international agreements, to which Somaliland responded by saying FGS had ‘declared war even the port is still working and the FGS is watching. This incidents creates tension in the parliaments both Somalia and Somaliland. On the side of Somalia parliament, members from Somaliland who claim they represent Somaliland stated that the FGS is against the development of Somaliland. Furthermore, the FGS control alone the airspace without consultation of Somaliland which goes against Somaliland because of the agreements reached in Istanbul, Turkey when the former government of Somalia and Somaliland agreed on joint airspace management. In doing so, again, the FGS is tried to ban and waging economic war on Somaliland by targeting livestock exports during the Hajj season. Last but least, the FGS president nominated a committee for talks with Somaliland while most of were Siyad Barre Regime members which go against Somaliland interests and conditions. This creates on the side of Somaliland to cancel any talks with FGS while Farmaajo is in the power.

Somalia’s president has shown Somaliland unprecedented enmity since he came to the office. For some time now, Somaliland academicians, experts, and senior politicians have been holding a conversation with themselves regards the coming Somalia election 2021. Most of them believe that it is good diplomacy for Somaliland to interfere and has a good role of the next Somalia election for this reasons, firstly, at least Somaliland has influence the politics in Mogdasho and decided to join the political war against the current FGS, secondly, Somaliland will work closely the coming leader of FGS regards with their interest in terms of recognition and development if they participate indirectly the election by influencing the Somalia parliament members who claim they represent Somaliland.

External challenges on FGS

The FGS is not only facing internal challenges but external challenges are there. Changing the political direction of the country creates political anxiety in the country. Former two presidents of Somalia Sheikh Sharif and Hassan Shiekh had relations and a good friend with, UAE, Djibouti and Saudi Arabia. However, the Farmaajo administration changed the direction of the country started a new way of direction which is Turkey, Qatar, Ethiopia, and Eritrea. The Middle East politics and geopolitics of the horn of Africa and competition of superpowers had negatively affected the direction and politics of the country. In doing so, the former presidents of the country, other opposition parties, and their friends include mainly KSA and UAE working with oppositional parties how to win next election in the country, for this purpose, the Farmaajo administration new friends also working with him how Farmaajo to stay in the office and win the next election. The FGS also facing another challenge with regard to the maritime dispute against Kenya.

NIEC Challenges

Somalia’s National Independent Electoral Commission (NIEC) has announced plans to register millions of Somalis to participate in the coming election. Moreover, the NIEC registered political parties but there is a long way to hold one man one vote election due to these reasons. Firstly, many of the states are not working with Mogadishu and NIEC, hence, it is very difficult to hold an election without cooperation between states and FGS. Secondly, the other challenge is technical and logistical requirements need to hold the election. Thirdly, due to security reasons, for instance, Al- Shabaab Groups controls many districts, cities, and regions directly and indirectly, and finally, Somaliland as a separate state which is not possible to participate in the election. For the above reasons, the oppositional parties of the country argued that “anyone who entertains the thought that there will be one person one vote elections in 2020 is paving the way for term extension.” Even though the last election was postponed less than six months during former president Hassan Shiekh’s time, in this difficult time and the outbreak of pandemic disease of coronavirus, no one knows is the government preparing postponement of the election?

In general, if you asking yourself many questions regarding who is going to win next election in Somalia, you need only to understand the above trends and dynamics of the country in order to predict the future president of Somalia, however, you must always keep in the mind that predicting Somalia future president is very complicated and not easy due to last two elections in the country.

About the Author
Mahdi Ismail is a politician, researchers, and lecturer. He is a human rights, development, and peace activist. He has a degree in Development Studies from the University of Admas and this moment he is a candidate for master’s Peace and Conflict Studies at Mekelle University of Ethiopia. In 2017, Mahdi was chairman District of UCID party in Somaliland and now a researcher at Yazza capacity and solution in Hargeisa.

Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints of Somaliland Chronicle and it’s staff.

Sugar. Cellphones. Corruption: The Container that Claimed the Entire Leadership of Berbera Customs

Staff

May 22, 2020

In April 2020, a cargo container was taxed and cleared out of Berbera Customs only to be intercepted outside of Hargeisa city limits by government officials.

According to sources familiar with the incident, Berbera Customs officials taxed the container as sugar instead of its actual content – cellphones and a lot of them. Sugar and all other basic food staples such as rice and flour are assessed a lower tax than most other imports, including electronics.

How this happened and the exact revenue loss caused by this type of corruption at the country’s most important source of revenue remains to be a mystery as officials from the Ministry of Finance Development, including the Minister Hon. Saad Ali Shire did not respond to our questions to try to understand how the system failed to prevent corruption of this scale.

Here is the Director-General of the Ministry of Finance Development, Mr. Mohamed Ali Gurhan explaining Berbera Customs’ critical role to the functioning Somaliland government by being the single most significant source of revenue.

Mr. Gurhan was the Berbera Customs Manager as recently as February 2018, and in the above clip he explains that Berbera Customs generates 50 – 60% of the entire government budget. He has run Berbera Customs from 2013 until February 2018.

According to current and former officials at Berbera Customs who spoke on strict condition of anonymity for fear for reprisal and possible imprisonment, it is not usual to have a product taxed as something entirely different to assess a substantially lower tax than owed.

“This practice is as common as the air we breathe and it’s not just Berbera customs, it is everywhere and requires the complicity of many moving parts of a complex system, including the officers who give the final ok for cargo to leave the customs,” said one official who did not want to be identified.

Sources add that it is a standard practice to tax almost half of the imported clothes as fabric or “unstitched clothes” to give a substantial and possibly illegal tax break. This specific allegation is supported by the Ministry’s latest Economic Performance Bulletin Report for 2020 Q1, which shows more garment fabric being imported and taxed than ready-made clothes.

Besides small tailor shops, there are currently no garment factories in Somaliland to justify such quantities of “unstitched clothes”.

Sources add that the most corrupting influence comes from businessmen seeking the slightest advantage over their competitors and pay tens of thousands of dollars to a customs official whose monthly salary may be a mere few hundred dollars to ensure their cargo is never assessed the correct tariff.

For those that do not want to pay bribes, sources who have dealt with Berbera Customs as customers have described a culture of entrenched impunity that can ruin a business with a stroke of a pen and leave little choice for clients but to comply with the demand of corrupt customs officials.

Total System Failure

Arcane and purposefully convoluted

According to multiple sources familiar with customs operations, there are overlapping layers of checks at all customs, and especially Berbera Customs that ensure a cargo leaving the terminal has been properly taxed and has all of its paperwork in order.

Complicity from large parts or the entirety of the system is a prerequisite for the corruption of this magnitude to take place at Somaliland’s largest source of tax revenue.

Although Somaliland government has awarded a no-bid contract for the deployment of a cargo scanner over a year ago to Universal Matrix, a company owned with business tycoon Mohamed Aw Saeed currently cargo inspection remains to be human capital intensive.

In his latest supervisory visit to Berbera Customs in early February 2020, Minister Shire admitted the need to streamline customs processes.

Although the Ministry of Financial Development has not given an official reason the entire leadership of Berbera Customs including the manager Mr. Abdirahman Cirro, his deputy, the cargo inspection team and the customs police commander has been replaced.

There is no indication if any oversight entities such as the Auditor General were activated to look into this matter or if any procedures changes were put in place to prevent future occurrences of such incidents.

The outcomes of recent investigations by Somaliland Auditor General in Hargeisa Municipality, Ministry of Education and Science, the Civil Service Commission among others are unknown and have not been publicly released.

Below are the specific questions sent to the Minister of Finance Development Dr. Saad Ali Shire that were unanswered.

There has been changes made to the Berbera Customs leadership, has anybody been fired, prosecuted for this issue or has there only been reassignments?
To your knowledge has this sort of thing happened in the past, if so how many times and is there an active investigation to get to the bottom of it?
For corruption of this magnitude to take place was there a systemic issue that enabled perpetrators to subvert existing procedures, checks and balances?
Aside from the customs were there others from the ministry who were disciplined for this event?

It is unclear if President Muse Bihi Abdi who has run on an anti-corruption platform is aware of this incident. No one has been persecuted for corruption since President Bihi has taken the helm on November 2017.

Notice: This is an article by Somaliland Chronicle. It is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. Under this license, all reprints and non-commercial distribution of this work is permitted.

Ethiopia’s poll has been pushed out by COVID-19. But there’s much more at play

Staff

May 19, 2020

Mulugeta G Berhe (PhD), Tufts University

The decision by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to postpone the elections in Ethiopia has created a constitutional crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic is the context for this but not the cause.

The Ethiopian government decided to postpone the scheduled elections for an unlimited time as a result of the pandemic. But this extension comes with a unique problem, what the authorities are now calling a constitutional crisis.

The five-year term of the federal and regional legislatures, as well as their administrations, will expire on September 30. This brings about a distinct challenge.

Beyond September 30, who will have the mandate to govern until an election can be held?

The ruling party presented four possible scenarios to circumvent the constitutional crisis: dissolving parliament; declaring a state of emergency; amending the constitution; and seeking a constitutional interpretation.

Of the four options, the ruling party was partial to constitutional interpretation. Parliament endorsed this on May 5, 2020. They have asked the House of Federation to issue an interpretation within a month. Most opposition parties with significant constituencies have rejected the decision.

The Oromo Federalist Congress and its six coalition parties have rejected it and called for a dialogue to find a political solution. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front rejected it as unconstitutional and said it would prepare for regional elections. It said this would avoid an illegitimate power grab by the incumbent.

In Ethiopia’s divisive ethno-political landscape, this year’s planned elections were always going to be a tricky affair.

Was the current impasse avoidable?

The National Electoral Board of Ethiopia was reorganised in 2018. Former opposition leader Birtukan Midiksa was appointed as its head. Despite these developments the government remained reluctant to hold elections on schedule.

Prime minister Ahmed stated that his government needed to consult all the political groups in the country to decide whether holding the election on time was appropriate.

In its most recent report, the International Crisis Group indicated that Ahmed’s tactics were reminiscent of the authoritarian past he had vowed to abandon. This included the arrest and harassment of activists and opponents.

It was only in October 2019 (following the Nobel Committee’s announcement that Ahmed had won the Nobel Peace Prize) that the premier stated explicitly that any delays in the poll would affect the legality and legitimacy of his government.

The electoral board and its new chairperson claimed that they had begun working on preparations for elections. However, an election timeline was only released in February this year. This goes contrary to custom whereby the board should have announced the calendar nine months prior to polling day.

In the February calendar, it planned to hold the elections on August 29, 2020.

Several organisations and political groups expressed their concern about the choice of date. Because of the rainy season, most rural areas are not accessible at that time. This would limit the participation of the majority of Ethiopians. The electoral board insisted on going ahead with the August date, claiming that any delay would result in a constitutional crisis because an un-elected government would be in office.

From this sequence of events it is clear that the constitutional crisis was already brewing before the additional problems posed by COVID-19. The late preparations and unrealistic choice of date already posed a very serious problem to the practicality and legitimacy of the elections. COVID-19 gave the government a golden opportunity to justify further delays.

The way forward

Analysts who follow Ethiopia closely, for example Rene LeFort – a writer, reporter and author of Ethiopia: An Heretical Revolution? – have indicated that Ahmed is increasingly personalising power. They say he has shown his aspirations to become the “big man” of Ethiopia at any cost. This would include operating outside the legal framework if necessary.

The Abiy administration has reversed early gains that were made by opening the political space. The resumption of intimidation and mass incarceration of opponents point to a return to the old authoritarian days. His regime is failing to deliver on its promises and is quickly losing its legitimacy.

When it dissolved the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front and replaced it with the Prosperity Party it arguably abandoned its legality. The Prosperity Party only has the façade of legality because the representatives who were elected under the front irregularly assumed Prosperity Party membership.

The postponement of the poll without proper political settlement could be the last straw. The country is at risk of balkanisation along ethnic lines.

The Tigray region has declared that it will go ahead with its regional elections. Neither the electoral board nor Ahmed’s government can legally stop the Tigrayans from holding elections.

Any attempt to stop the election by force could split the Ethiopian army along ethnic lines. Such an attempt could be a recipe for the Tigrayans to invoke article 39 of the constitution and declare an independent state. Several major opposition groups, including the largest coalition of Oromo national organisations, have also declared they might go it on their own beyond September 30. They refuse to recognise an illegitimate government.

The solution, therefore, is more political negotiation rather than constitutional “interpretation”. None of the provisions in the constitution, however much they are stretched for convenient interpretation, allow for the extension of the incumbent’s mandate beyond September.

An agreement on the poll date, as well as the type of provisional administration to bridge the gap between September and the next election, can only come through dialogue between all political parties and key civil society organisations. Anything less could spell the most severe crisis in Ethiopia’s modern history.

Mulugeta G Berhe (PhD), Senior Fellow, World Peace Foundation, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts, Tufts University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

Ministry of Education announces Exam dates for Somaliland schools

Staff

May 19, 2020

Despite rapid raise in COVID-19 cases, the the Ministry of Education and Science announced that nationwide school exams will be held on Saturday June 27, 2020. The announcement was made by the Chairman of Examination Board Mr. Daud Ahmed Farah.

School closures was among the first steps taken by National Preparedness Committee for COVID19 on March 17 where the Ministry of Education and Science has been telecasting classrooms to 8th and 12th grade students from Radio, TV and social media platforms.

Guddiga u diyaargowga iyo ka hortaga xanuunka Koroona Fayras ( Corona Virus – #COVID19 ) ayaa soo saaray go'aamo lagu dhowrayo badqabka iyo badbaadinta Bulshada #Somaliland.@HarunMaruf @musebiihi @BBCSomali @voasomali pic.twitter.com/TtR2p8UIbT
— National Preparedness Committee for COVID19 (@NPCCOVID19) March 17, 2020

The announcement by the Exam Board, Mr. Daud Ahmed Farah did include logistical details or mention consultation with the National Preparedness Committee for COVID19 which the Minister of Education Hon. Ahmed Mohamed Diriye Egeh is a member or if additional steps such as social distancing will be factored into bringing large number of school children back to the classrooms for examination.

On May 10, President Muse Bihi Abdi admonished private school owners for defying the National Preparedness Committee for COVID19‘s order on school closure and endangering the public and announced that unspecified legal actions will be taken as a result of their reckless actions.

COVID-19 cases have been steadily on the raise in Somaliland since the testing equipment provided by WHO have become operational. It is unclear what measures the Ministry of Education and science have put in place to ensure the safety of students and prevent the further spread of COVID-19.

Since his appointment, the Minister of Education and Science Hon. Ahmed Mohamed Diriye Egeh has made significant structural changes to his portfolio although he has recently reappointed his predecessor and others as advisors despite their removal for incompetency and allegation of widespread corruption.

President Bihi Awards Medals of Valor to 12 Army Officers

Staff

May 19, 2020

The President of the Republic of Somaliland HE Muse Bihi Abdi awarded medals of valor to army officers including Colonels, Lieutenant colonels and one Brigadier General. According to the announcement, this is the first time in Somaliland’s history medals of valor ara awarded.

President Bihi inspecting tank regiment at Dararweyne Military training Academy

In his 18 May speech, President Bihi praised Somaliland’s armed forces for their high moral, superior training and unwavering commitment to the security of the nation.

The recipients of Somaliland first ever Medals of Valor are:

Brigadier General Ali Bare Hussein
Colonel Ismail Farah Awale Dolal
Colonel Ahmed Hurre Hariye
Colonel Mahad Farah Elmi (Anbaashe)
Colonel Abdillahi Sufi Ahmed
Colonel Yusuf Iman Diriye
Colonel Faisal Abdi Botan
Colonel Abdillahi Ibrahim Hassan
Lieutenant colonel Kayd Osman Mohamed
Lieutenant colonel Ibrahim Ali Sabir
Lieutenant colonel Mohamed Abdillahi Artan (Rujiye)
Lieutenant colonel Abdillahi Mohamed (Dhaga-weyne).

The award ceremony was held during the 18 May celebration held at the Presidential Palace which was closed to the public and broadcast live.

The President of the Republic of Somaliland Addresses the Nation on the Occasion of 18 May

Staff

May 19, 2020

The celebration event for the occassion of May 18 independence of the Republic of Somaliland was closed to the public and broadcast live due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The President speech touch on many topics including national security, justice reform, the COVID-19 pandemic and Somaliland and Somalia talks as well.

President Bihi Pardons 365 Inmates for the Occasion of Independence Day

Staff

May 19, 2020

The President of the Republic of Somaliland HE Muse Bihi Abdi pardoned 365 inmates for the 18 May. The statement from from the President’s office stated that the pardon is for inmates charged with minor offences.

The statement adds that the pardon does not affect civil penalties resulting from their criminal charges as enshrined by the Article 92 of the penal code.

Although the pardon did not specifically mention COVID-19, sources indicate that concerns of the spreading disease is a major concern for the President and may be a factor in his decision to pardon inmates.

This is the second Presidential pardon this year since President Bihi has pardoned 574 inmates on April 1st 2020.

Chairman of Waddani Opposition Party Addresses the Nation on the Occasion of 18 May

Staff

May 17, 2020

The Chairman of Waddani opposition party Mr. Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi “Cirro” addressed the nation on the occasion of 18 May.

Chairman Abdirahman Cirro started his address with a note on the importance of 18 May, the day that Somaliland regained its independence. He added that 18 May is a day that weighs on our hearts but due to health concerns we are unable to celebrate it.

“You are heroes, both women and men, you are the backbone and the pride of the nation and may Allah watch over you and your families” said Chairman Cirro when congratulating the nations armed forces on the occasion of 18 May.

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The chairman also sent congratulations to national parties, the legislative councils, the government and the public at large and specially the diaspora “whose role cannot be overlooked” and ended with “Long Live Somaliland”.

Mr. Abdirahman Cirro noted the difficult time faced by Somaliland interms of economy and health and changes in global migration and implored the public to look out for the vulnerable people among us.

On COVID-19 pandemic, Mr. Abdirahman Cirro said that death and the infection rate are raising in our country since the testing equipment became operational. He noted that the disease is now at a local transmission phase where people with no travel history are testing positive and suggested below steps in addition the existing prevention steps of COVID-19 pandemic

Raise the alert and prevention level to the highest.
Redouble awareness efforts and ensure it reaches all regions, districts and towns.
Fully mobilize healthcare workers and prepare additional healthcare centers.
Acquire additional COVID-19 testing equipment and ensure their availability in all regions and increase testing of the public for COVID-19
Regular inspection by law enforcement and awareness teams of public gathering sites.
Ensure the distribution of COVID-19 aid received so far to the pubic as much as possible.
Consistantly update the public by the COVID-19 committee
Send urgent appeal to the international community and WHO.

Chairman Cirro congratulated those who have complied with the COVID-19 prevention steps including the educators who closed learning centers, the khat traders and the religious community who have stopped the trawih and tajahud prayers.

He also thanked everyone who has so far send COVID-19 aid to Somaliland including WHO, United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Qatar, Telesom, World Remit, Mr. Abdourahman Boureh.

Chairman Cirro closed his address with a note on the repeated crisis in the country’s east in Eil Afweyn and said that hostilities is not in our best interest and have appealed the elders, chiefs, the religious leaders and the intellectuals to curb the hostilities as quickly as possible.

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