Addis Ababa, Ethiopia — The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued a strongly worded statement in response to recent accusations from the Somali government, escalating diplomatic tensions in the Horn of Africa. The press release, published on July 26 in both English and Somali, refutes what Ethiopia calls “unwarranted and irresponsible statements” from Somali officials.
The timing of this diplomatic clash is significant, coming shortly after reports of militias in Somalia looting truckloads of heavy weapons. This incident appears to validate concerns raised by Somaliland regarding the UN’s decision to lift its arms embargo on Somalia.
Ethiopia’s statement emphasizes its long-standing role as an ally to Somalia: “For more than three decades, we’ve sacrificed for Somalia’s peace. Now, they repay us with baseless accusations.” This sentiment underscores the sense of betrayal felt in Addis Ababa and highlights the complex nature of regional relationships.
Somalia has floated the idea of alternative areas for an Ethiopian naval base, suggesting that their primary concern is not necessarily about preventing Ethiopia from accessing Somali territory. Instead, the core issue seems to be the potential implicit recognition of Somaliland’s sovereignty that the Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU represents. This nuance contradicts Somalia’s framing of the issue as a nationalistic defense of its territory.
Attempts at diplomatic resolution have so far yielded little progress. Turkey-mediated talks between Somalia and Ethiopia, held in Ankara on July 1st has failed to produce any significant breakthroughs.
The Ethiopian government expresses deep concern over the proliferation of illegal arms in the region, citing “porous borders and unregulated coastal lines” as factors contributing to the issue. This situation is further complicated by recent geopolitical developments.
Somalia has recently signed defense pacts with Turkey and Egypt, moves seen as attempts to counter the Somaliland-Ethiopia Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). Turkey has agreed to assist Somalia in developing its naval capabilities, while Egypt’s involvement adds another layer of complexity to regional dynamics.
However, experts note that neither Egypt nor Turkey has the capacity to mount meaningful or kinetic action in Somaliland, which lies outside their immediate sphere of influence. While these alliances may represent diplomatic posturing and an attempt to pressure Ethiopia into negotiations, the possibility of preventing the Somaliland-Ethiopia MoU by force seems far-fetched. Both countries lack the resources and technical capability to sustain such an effort over the long term and across such distances.
The Egypt-Somalia alliance is particularly noteworthy given the ongoing dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Ethiopia considers the GERD crucial for its development, while Egypt fears it will impact its share of Nile waters. Egypt’s support for Somalia is viewed as a strategic move to balance Ethiopia’s influence in the region and secure its interests in the Red Sea, even if direct intervention remains unlikely.
These developments may prompt Ethiopia to accelerate its deal with Somaliland, aiming to establish a strategic presence along the coast to counteract potential naval threats. The Egyptian Navy’s considerable strength in the region adds urgency to Ethiopia’s strategic considerations.
Meanwhile, Ethiopian troops continue to play a crucial role in Somalia as part of the African Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), working to prevent the country from being overrun by Al-Shabaab. This ongoing military involvement underscores the interconnected nature of security issues in the region.
