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A recent New York Times article and a statement from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee indicate significant potential shifts in U.S. policy toward the Horn of Africa, with particular implications for Somaliland’s bid for international recognition.
“The Biden Administration should not be approving new U.S. taxpayer dollars for @UNpeacekeeping. The Trump Administration will not be supportive of this new open-ended mandate for Somalia & I’m glad to be part of the change and reform coming to the @UN,” stated the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in a recent post on X.
Dr. J. Peter Pham, Trump’s former U.S. envoy to the Sahel and a key voice in African policy, reinforced this position, describing it as a “strong warning” from the incoming Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair. “The times they are a-changin’ — and not a moment too soon,” Pham noted, highlighting the significance of this policy shift regarding Somalia.
This statement, combined with reporting from the Times, suggests a broader realignment of U.S. policy in the region. “There is a general belief that Somaliland will be better off under the Trump administration,” Bashir Goth, who leads the Somaliland mission to the United States, told the Times. This optimism appears well-founded, as officials who previously served under Trump indicate he could recognize Somaliland, which declared independence from Somalia in 1991.
The Times article reveals a significant shift in U.S. diplomatic approach under the incoming administration. While current U.S. policy maintains a “one Somalia” stance, former Trump administration officials suggest a more pragmatic approach is forthcoming. The potential recognition would be part of a broader strategy to strengthen American presence in strategically vital regions of Africa.
According to the Times article, the U.S. is particularly interested in securing “an airfield and a seaport on the strategic route along the Gulf of Aden” as part of any recognition agreement. This strategic interest aligns with broader American efforts to counter China’s growing influence in Africa, where U.S. influence has notably declined in recent years. The report highlights that African exports to the United States have dropped dramatically, from over 20 percent in 2000 to less than 5 percent in 2022, according to World Bank data.
The timing of these developments is particularly significant given shifting global dynamics in Africa. The Times notes that China has emerged as the most popular foreign power in Africa, according to recent Gallup polls, while American influence has waned. Recognition of Somaliland could serve as a strategic counter to this trend, particularly given Somaliland’s strategic location and the growing importance of the Gulf of Aden shipping route.
The incoming administration’s approach to Africa is expected to be “pragmatic and transactional,” focusing on strategic interests and economic opportunities. This new direction, coupled with the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s statement opposing UN peacekeeping funding in Somalia, suggests a broader shift in U.S. policy that could benefit Somaliland’s quest for recognition.
This potential policy shift comes at a time when the U.S. is reassessing its strategic partnerships in Africa. The Times reports that American embassies in Africa are understaffed, and the country has lost security access to parts of the jihadist-affected Sahel region. In this context, Somaliland’s stable governance and strategic location make it an increasingly attractive partner for U.S. interests in the region.
However, the path forward requires careful diplomatic navigation. Questions remain about how Somaliland’s new government under President Abdirahman M. Cirro will position itself regarding these potential developments. While President Cirro brings diplomatic experience to his role, having long touted his diplomatic credentials, some of his early appointments have raised eyebrows among political observers. Most notably, his choice of Foreign Affairs Minister, whose fiery rhetoric against the now defunct Ethiopia MoU preceded his appointment, has drawn quiet scrutiny at a time when nuanced diplomacy is crucial. The current moment demands more than traditional diplomacy or political pronouncements – it requires careful statecraft to navigate these unprecedented opportunities for recognition.
Adding complexity to this diplomatic landscape is Somalia’s continued push for fruitless talks with Somaliland. Somalia’s government has consistently marketed these discussions to the international community as a “reconciliation process” that would ultimately lead to reunification – a narrative that fundamentally contradicts Somaliland’s three-decade pursuit of recognition. Previous rounds of talks, spanning multiple years and international venues, have all collapsed due to Somalia’s steadfast refusal to acknowledge the possibility of a two-state solution as the final outcome. Despite numerous international mediation efforts, Somalia’s negotiating position has remained unchanged: treating dialogue as a path to reunification rather than addressing the fundamental question of Somaliland’s sovereignty.
This situation bears striking parallels to Sudan’s historical attempts to prevent South Sudan’s independence by promoting dialogue as an alternative to separation. Like South Sudan before its independence, Somaliland faces the challenge of maintaining its sovereign aspirations while managing international pressure for talks that Somalia frames as a path to reunification. The historical record of failed negotiations underscores the futility of dialogue without Somalia’s willingness to discuss a two-state solution.
The timing of any renewed participation in such talks could prove disastrous for Somaliland given the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s clear stance on reducing support for UN operations in Somalia. While the opportunity for recognition appears more tangible than ever, success may hinge on President Cirro’s ability to pivot from his traditional diplomatic approach to match the Trump administration’s more transactional style. The effectiveness of Somaliland’s newly appointed foreign affairs team in navigating these waters will be crucial, particularly in resisting pressure for talks that Somalia could use to undermine Somaliland’s push for recognition.
Former U.S. officials quoted in the Times article suggest that the Trump administration’s transactional approach could lead to more concrete outcomes in African relations. While previous administrations focused on democracy promotion and human rights, the incoming administration is expected to prioritize strategic partnerships and economic opportunities, potentially accelerating decision-making on issues like Somaliland’s recognition.
For Somaliland, these developments represent a potential breakthrough in its independence journey. The convergence of U.S. strategic interests, changing regional dynamics, and the incoming administration’s practical approach to foreign policy could create unprecedented opportunities for advancing Somaliland’s sovereign aspirations. The coming months will test Somaliland’s diplomatic capabilities as its leadership navigates these emerging opportunities.
