A coalition formed by political association Kaah and opposition party Wadani has the potential to change Somaliland’s political climate before the elections in November. The collaboration, which was unveiled in Hargeisa today, aims to challenge the dominance of the ruling party and garner support.
A strategic collaboration for the November elections is established by the agreement signed by Kaah leader Mahamud Hashi Abdi, Wadani presidential candidate Abdirahman Irro, and Wadani leader Hirsi Ali Haji Hassan.
Important aspects include Kaah’s support for Waddani’s nominee for president, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi Irro, in return for governmental roles should Waddani secures victory. Both parties also decided to review Somaliland’s constitution to reconsider the seat allocation system and to resolve the Sool region’s problems through peaceful discussions.
Wadani spokesperson Mohamed Farah stated in an interview with the BBC that this landmark deal will be advantageous for the citizens of Somaliland and paves the way for Wadani to gain power in the nation. Kaah spokesperson Hasan Abdillahi Mataan characterized the agreement as a major chance to rescue Somaliland and bring back harmony among its citizens
The alliance is formed only 100 days prior to the elections, exerting political influence on the governing party. Dr. Ahmed Farah Idle (Ahmed Saki), a researcher and lecturer at the University of Hargeisa, highlighted the strategic timing with the approaching election.
Dr. Ahmed-Saki Farah informed the BBC that Waddani is employing all tactics to seize power in Somaliland, which is why they have partnered with Kaah in a coalition. The strategy that led to the current agreement has been in progress for almost a year.
The alliance brings fresh dynamics to the political landscape of Somaliland. It might pose a challenge to the incumbent Kulmiye party, which has been in power in Somaliland for the last fourteen years. Wadani and Kaah are both competing to uphold their political standing
Nonetheless, Dr. Ahmed Saki cautioned that Kaah’s leadership has engaged in a political gamble. He mentioned that if only Waddani’s followers vote for Waddani, Kaah could lose backing from the government and other opposition parties.
The partnership between Waddani and Kaah is just the second coalition deal in the political history of Somaliland. In 2010, the opposition party Kulmiye joined forces with the group Qaran to form a coalition before eventually uniting for the election.
Somaliland Republic where leaders are chosen through direct voting, is preparing for one of its most fiercely contested elections in recent memory. The result of this alliance could have a major impact on the future political layout of Somaliland.
According to documents examined by Somaliland Chronicle, serious allegations of misconduct have emerged in the selection process for a World Bank-funded Project Coordinator position in Somaliland. The ongoing investigation has raised significant concerns about transparency and fairness in the recruitment procedure, potentially fitting into a broader pattern of corruption in internationally funded projects.
Multiple professionals have filed formal complaints with the World Bank regarding the selection committee’s processes and potential conflicts of interest. These individuals, whose identities remain confidential, have highlighted irregularities and possible biases in the recruitment process.
One complainant criticized the qualifications and selection criteria, alleging they were tailored to favor a pre-selected candidate. The complaint specifically mentioned the alleged involvement of high-ranking officials with direct links to the Presidency. According to the complainant, the selection committee failed to adhere to established guidelines, compromising the integrity of the process.
Another professional echoed these concerns, detailing instances where selection committee members appeared to disregard objective qualifications in favor of subjective preferences.
According to sources familiar with World Bank-funded projects in Somaliland, the corruption in this case may extend beyond simply appointing a less qualified candidate. These sources allege that the real aim is to install a compliant Project Coordinator who will have significant influence over the allocation of multimillion-dollar procurement contracts. This arrangement, if true, could allow the appointee to direct lucrative contracts to entities favored by their sponsors, potentially including high-ranking officials.
The same sources point to previous World Bank initiatives in Somaliland, specifically the Strengthening Civil Service and Public Finance Reform projects, which together totaled at least $20 million in funding. Despite their substantial price tags, these earlier projects appear to have had limited impact on improving Somaliland’s governance and financial management systems, primarily due to corruption within the implementation process.
The World Bank has acknowledged receipt of the complaints regarding the current project and initiated a review to ensure the recruitment process aligns with their standards of transparency and fairness.
The contested position is a key role in the World Bank-funded Somalia Enhancing Public Resource Management Project, aimed at improving public resource management and strengthening institutional capacities in Somaliland.
The selection committee, responsible for evaluating candidates, includes key figures from the Ministry of Finance and other governmental bodies. Concerns about conflicts of interest have been amplified by allegations of undue influence from high-ranking officials.
In response to these concerns, Dr. Saad Ali Shire, Minister of Finance Development, provided the following statement to Somaliland Chronicle:
“The World Bank has a set procedure for recruitment. And the World Bank gives a no-objection consent every step of the way. You cannot proceed unless No-objection is obtained. In this case, there have been complaints and accusations shared with the World Bank. The World Bank has a system for dealing with complaints and that has been followed. At one point, they hired a Norwegian firm to participate in the process. Finally, a candidate was selected. This was shared with the World Bank which gave a no-objection verdict.”
Dr. Shire emphasized the integrity of the selection process, adding, “The process was handled by a panel of seven senior officers from different stakeholder institutions chaired by my Deputy Minister. If the successful candidate is not up to the job, then the necessary steps will be taken to deal with that.“
However, despite Dr. Saad Ali Shire’s earlier assurances of adhering strictly to World Bank procedures, new evidence has come to light that directly contradicts the Minister of Finance Development’s claims. A document examined by Somaliland Chronicle, dated 27/07/2023, reveals that Dr. Shire attempted to bypass the established recruitment process by unilaterally nominating an entire project team for the SERP (Somaliland Economic Recovery Program) initiative. This official letter from the Ministry of Finance Development lists nominations for key positions including the SERP PIU Coordinator, the very position the Ministry is now recruiting and for which almost every candidate who has applied is complaining of a rigged process, while the Minister claims adherence to World Bank procedures.
Sources close to the matter indicate that this premature team selection was promptly rejected by the World Bank, which insisted the Ministry adhere to proper hiring guidelines. This revelation starkly contrasts with Dr. Shire’s previous statement that “The World Bank has a set procedure for recruitment… You cannot proceed unless No-objection is obtained.” The Minister’s actions in attempting to appoint a full team without following due process, particularly for the contested SERP PIU Coordinator position, raise serious questions about the transparency of the selection process and lend credence to the widespread allegations of potential misconduct in staffing this multimillion-dollar project.
Adding to the complexity of the situation, a recent letter from the World Bank informed the Ministry of Finance Development of a change in the Task Team Leader for the Enhancing Public Resource Management Project. Ms. May Olalia, Senior Public Sector Specialist, has been designated as the new Task Team Leader, replacing Ms. Rafika Chaouali.
This controversy is set against the broader context of Somaliland’s unique position in relation to World Bank-funded projects. Generally, these projects are awarded to the Federal Government of Somalia, with Somaliland considered an implementing partner, much like other Federal Member States such as Puntland. This arrangement underscores a dichotomy in Somaliland’s pursuit of independence. While striving for international recognition, Somaliland’s acceptance of funding under the auspices of Somalia suggests a willingness to operate as a de facto member state when beneficial. This duality can be perceived as an impediment to Somaliland’s independence aspirations, signaling to the international community that Somaliland, while asserting its autonomy, is content to receive funding akin to any other member state.
In practice, Somaliland often attempts to assert its distinct identity by renaming these projects, replacing “Somalia” with “Somaliland” at launch ceremonies. However, this symbolic gesture does little to address the underlying issues. Critics argue that these projects, despite their stated aims, have failed to significantly advance Somaliland’s development. Instead, there are concerns that they primarily serve to enrich a small circle of corrupt officials, funding lavish lifestyles while leaving the broader population’s needs unmet. This situation is further complicated by dealings with foreign ambassadors sent to Somalia, who often engage with Somaliland under the framework of Somalia’s federal structure, further blurring the line between Somaliland and Somalia and potentially giving the impression that independence may not be a serious pursuit.
Organized corruption involves multiple actors working together to defraud the public long-term by creating a deeply rooted cartel that grows more powerful with each iteration. In Brazil, the Petrobras scandal revealed top executives colluding with politicians and construction firms to inflate contracts and siphon off billions. Nigeria’s fuel subsidy scam saw government officials and businesspeople fabricating fuel import documents to claim subsidies for non-existent deliveries, costing the country billions. In Somaliland, while the scale may be smaller, the sophistication of institutionalized corruption is comparable. Officials and their associates have created entrenched systems to exploit public resources for personal gain. Each generation of corrupt actors builds upon the previous one, enhancing their methods and tightening their grip on public funds. In Somaliland, the bucket may be smaller than Petrobras or Nigeria’s fuel subsidy scam, but the institutionalized corruption is just as sophisticated and likely to worsen with each generation.
Only Minister Shire responded to requests for comments. World Bank officials and all others in the Selection Committee did not respond, leaving it unclear whether the World Bank has given its no-objection greenlight to proceed with filling the position or if the complaints have triggered a closer look at the hiring process.
Somaliland Chronicle will continue to monitor this situation closely, urging all involved parties to ensure a fair and transparent resolution. The outcomes of the World Bank’s review and subsequent actions by the Ministry of Finance will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of this essential project and potentially the broader landscape of international aid in Somaliland.
Pharo Foundation hosted an Early Childhood Development and Education Symposium in Somaliland. Their Education Program Lead, Yohannes Teklu Keliku, has attended the event with other key stakeholders in Somaliland.
Watch the video below to learn from Yohannes, what the symposium is all about.
The Ministry for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation in Somaliland announced that it has made a noteworthy advancement towards receiving international recognition.
The Ministry also mentioned that Somaliland has formed a State Recognition Taskforce at the ministerial level to plan and work towards gaining recognition. It was also mentioned that this decision is in line with the government’s continuous diplomatic efforts, including the recent Memorandum of Understanding with Ethiopia for sea access.
Somaliland takes a significant step towards international recognition today. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has established a Ministerial Level State recognition Taskforce to strategize and pursue recognition efforts. (1/2) #Somaliland#Diplomacy#Recognitionpic.twitter.com/IyDLowNqOo
Ethiopia and Somaliland entered into a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on 01 January 2024, which allows Ethiopia to access the sea in exchange for providing international recognition to Somaliland.
The ruling Prosperity Party (PP) announced in January that it had made the decision to bring the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that Ethiopia signed with Somaliland “to a practical agreement” while simultaneously paying attention to the principles of give and take to secure additional options for port access with other neighboring countries in a resolution that was issued at the conclusion of four days of meetings by members of both the Executive and the Central Committee.
The agreement with Somaliland, according to the ruling party, demonstrates “Ethiopia’s position for regional economic and cultural ties.”
In February, Somaliland announced that it was “on course without any wavering, and remain seized” of the implementation of the MoU and that it had appointed a high-level advisory group and a technical team of international legal experts to advise and guide the process.
Following declarations of disapproval from Egypt and the other Arab League members, Ethiopian officials formally retaliated against those who disapproved of the MoU, all the while upholding their position to see through the agreement.
A potentially devastating visa fraud scheme, allegedly orchestrated by high-ranking Somali government officials, has been uncovered, raising serious concerns about U.S. national security. The revelation threatens to upend U.S. immigration policies and diplomatic relations, highlighting a chilling reality that underscores the vulnerabilities of the American visa issuance system.
A startling letter sent to U.S. Ambassador Richard Riley by Dr. Abdillahi Hashi Abib, a Somali lawmaker and member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, lays bare a massive, government-backed operation that could be allowing terrorists to enter the United States under false pretenses. This letter, dated July 30, 2024, exposes a web of corruption and deceit that could have catastrophic consequences far beyond Somalia’s borders.
At the heart of the scandal is a shocking statistic: 600 out of 700 visas issued to Somali civil servants by the U.S. Embassy have resulted in overstays, with these individuals failing to return to Somalia. This staggering 86% overstay rate is not just an alarming figure—it is a dire warning that American security may be at risk. This overstay rate is alarmingly higher than the global average of less than 3%, suggesting a systemic exploitation of the U.S. visa system. US Homeland Security overstay reports are available here.
Compounding this alarming scenario is the well-documented infiltration of Somali government institutions by Al-Shabaab, a notorious terrorist organization. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud himself has acknowledged this infiltration, underscoring the threat posed by the visa fraud scheme. The possibility that individuals with terrorist ties could be slipping into the United States undetected is a chilling prospect that demands immediate action.
Dr. Abib’s letter accuses Somalia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs of masterminding a scheme to misuse civil servants’ passports, securing visas from the U.S., Canada, EU, and UK for individuals who are not government employees. The alleged cost for these fraudulent services ranges from $20,000 to $25,000 per visa, indicating a lucrative operation potentially funneling millions of dollars into corrupt hands. This revelation suggests a deeply entrenched network of corruption that poses a significant threat to global security.
In 2017, former President Donald Trump implemented a travel ban that included Somalia among several Muslim-majority countries, citing national security concerns and the potential threat of terrorism. These new allegations of widespread visa fraud reinforce those fears, highlighting the critical need for vigilant visa controls. The potential for terrorists to exploit these vulnerabilities is a chilling reminder of the dangers posed by lax immigration enforcement.
The U.S. Embassy in Somalia faces an urgent need to reevaluate its visa issuance practices. The traditional diplomatic courtesies extended to government officials must be reconsidered in light of these explosive allegations. The international community is already reacting; Turkey has suspended tourist visas for Somali service passport holders as of July 15, 2024, signaling growing global distrust of Somalia’s travel documents.
The scandal reveals disturbing evidence of political manipulation within the visa process. While hundreds of “civil servants” remain in the U.S., over 30 Somali Members of Parliament have been denied visas, raising suspicions that the system is being exploited to serve certain political factions. Dr. Abib’s frustration with the lack of response from Somali officials to his repeated warnings is palpable. He urges the U.S. Embassy to investigate potential political interference, emphasizing the urgent need to address these threats.
As this story unfolds, the demand for immediate and thorough investigations by U.S. authorities grows more pressing. The integrity of the U.S. immigration system is at stake, and the potential impact on national security is too great to ignore. These revelations highlight the urgent need to overhaul current vetting processes and reinforce visa policies related to Somalia.
Although Ambassador Riley has only recently assumed his post, he faces the challenge of navigating a complex diplomatic landscape. Previous U.S. engagements with the Somali government have been criticized for lacking sufficient scrutiny, particularly concerning the fight against Al-Shabaab. Ambassador Riley’s reputation as a troubleshooter with experience in challenging environments may lead to increased accountability and oversight in diplomatic relations.
The Somali MP, Dr. Abib would only confirm the authenticity of the letter he sent to the US Embassy in Mogadishu and would not comment further.
The U.S. Embassy in Mogadishu has yet to comment on these allegations, but the gravity of the situation demands a swift and comprehensive response from U.S. officials. This scandal serves as a stark warning of the dangers posed by failed states in an interconnected world. As the international community grapples with these revelations, the need for a delicate balance between diplomatic engagement and national security becomes ever more critical. The world watches anxiously as the implications of this visa fraud scheme continue to unfold, underscoring the urgent need for action to protect against potential threats.
Somaliland’s National Intelligence Agency (NIA) has intercepted an alleged assassination squad sent by Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA). The squad was reportedly tasked with destabilizing the strategic city of Borama through targeted killings, according to a statement published by the NIA on social media.
The statement adds that two operatives are in custody while six more are under close surveillance. The agency has called for public vigilance, urging citizens to report suspicious activities to a dedicated hotline. This transparency underscores the gravity of the situation and the NIA’s strategy to involve the public in national security efforts.
Recently, the NIA has been notably public in its operations, a shift that coincides with the appointment of its current director awhile back. By sharing details of operations, the agency emphasizes community involvement as a key component of national security.
This transparency has been welcomed by the public, who see it as a demonstration of accountability and an effort to build trust. However, this departure from traditional intelligence methods, which typically operate in the shadows, has sparked some criticism. Experts argue that revealing operational details could compromise the agency’s effectiveness and tip off potential threats. While community involvement is crucial, maintaining a balance between transparency and operational secrecy is essential to ensure national security is not compromised.
This thwarted plot bears striking similarities to security challenges Las Anod, where a series of assassinations and bombings have plunged the region into turmoil. These incidents in Las Anod have been used as a pretext to instigate broader conflict, suggesting a coordinated effort to undermine Somaliland’s stability. Targeting Borama, a crucial cultural and economic hub, indicates a broader strategy to weaken Somaliland’s governance and sovereignty.
The alleged assassination attempt follows a landmark Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between Somaliland and Ethiopia on January 1st, 2024. The MoU, granting Ethiopia access to the Red Sea through the port of Berbera and formal recognition for Somaliland, has dramatically shifted regional dynamics and further strained already tense relations between Hargeisa and Mogadishu. The MoU showcases Somaliland’s efforts to assert its independence and foster economic development, sharply contrasting with Somalia’s apparent focus on exporting regional instability.
High-ranking Somali officials, including the President and Foreign Minister, have publicly issued threats and declared intentions to destabilize Somaliland in the wake of the Ethiopia-Somaliland agreement. These statements, documented by SomalilandChronicle.com, coupled with the alleged assassination plot, paint a troubling picture of Somalia as a failed state that, unable to govern its own territory effectively, resorts to exporting chaos to its neighbors.
Somalia’s inability to control its borders, tackle internal extremist threats, or provide basic services to its citizens starkly contrasts with Somaliland’s relative stability and democratic governance. Rather than focusing on internal reconstruction, Somalia appears to be channeling its limited resources into destabilizing a peaceful neighbor, raising serious questions about its priorities and the international community’s continued support.
The MoU has not only aggravated Somalia but also prompted hostile reactions from other regional actors. Notably, Djibouti has shifted from its quasi-neutral stance to open antagonism. Djibouti’s President Ismail Omar Guelleh seems to have called up every resource at his disposal including extended invitations to anti-Somaliland forces, including those currently engaged in conflict with Somaliland in the eastern Sool region and groups aiming to foment unrest in Awdal. This alignment of regional actors against Somaliland further complicates an already volatile situation.
As tensions mount, Somaliland finds itself in an increasingly under pressure. The foiled assassination attempt in Borama, combined with ongoing instability in Las Anod and growing regional hostility, paints a picture of a peaceful nation surrounded by escalating threats. Despite these challenges, Somaliland continues to pursue stability, economic development, and international recognition, standing as a beacon of relative peace in a troubled region.
The interception of these alleged operatives underscores the real possibility of open conflict between Somaliland and Somalia. It remains unclear whether Somaliland has formally addressed Somalia’s alleged attempts to foment conflict within its borders or brought the matter to any international forum. This silence on the diplomatic front raises questions about Somaliland’s strategy in dealing with external threats.
The international community’s response—or lack thereof—to these developments could prove pivotal in shaping the region’s future. As tensions simmer, the need for transparent dialogue and robust conflict resolution mechanisms becomes increasingly urgent, not just for Somaliland and Somalia, but for regional stability as a whole.
As Somaliland bolsters its defenses and continues its pursuit of international recognition, the stability of the entire Horn of Africa hangs in a precarious balance. The coming weeks may prove critical in determining whether this latest incident becomes a catalyst for diplomatic engagement or a precursor to further escalation.
The Djibouti regime is teetering on the edge of collapse, driven by economic desperation and a growing sense of insecurity. The rise of Berbera port in Somaliland as a major competitor has exposed the weaknesses of Djibouti’s growth model, which relies heavily on its port sector and Ethiopian trade.
Djibouti’s external public debt has ballooned from 33.9% of GDP in 2013 to 68% in 2022, largely due to loan-financed investments in state-owned enterprises, including the port and railway. The World Bank has warned that this model is unsustainable, citing the emergence of Berbera port as a strong competitor.
Instead of embracing healthy competition and finding ways to innovate and improve, Djibouti has chosen a destabilization path. It has opposed the MOU between Somaliland and Ethiopia, signed a military pact with Turkey, and recruited militias to destabilize Somaliland. Most alarmingly, sources from within Djibouti report that the regime is planning false flag attacks within Djibouti to justify invading the western part of Somaliland.
However, Djibouti is gravely miscalculating Somaliland’s resolve and capabilities. Somaliland has been exercising self-restraint in the face of Djibouti’s aggression but will not hesitate to defend itself if attacked. The people of Somaliland are determined to protect their sovereignty and territorial integrity and will stand up against any aggression with unwavering resolve.
Djibouti’s regime would do well to recognize the futility of its plans and seek diplomatic solutions to its economic and security challenges. The international community must also take immediate action to prevent regional instability and support Somaliland’s right to economic freedom.
About the Author
Badri Jimale is Horn of Africa follower and Pragmatic solutions advocate.
Britain’s former defense secretary Sir Gavin Williamson has urged Foreign Secretary David Lammy to listen to calls for the UK to recognize Somaliland as a sovereign nation, The Independent reported on Friday. “This is an important symbolic step and I hope the foreign secretary listens to the growing cross-party voices on this matter and acts to move UK policy to recognize Somaliland, so recognizing the reality on the ground,” he said. Lammy is being pushed to review UK foreign policy toward a potential key ally in the Red Sea conflict with the Iran-backed Houthis. The former British colony is not officially recognized by any international power despite functioning as an independent state since 1991 when it broke away from Somalia following a civil war. Earlier this week, the Lord Mayor of Liverpool Richard Kemp said: “Liverpool council unanimously agreed a motion calling upon HMG (His Majesty’s Government) to recognize the former British Protectorate of Somaliland as an independent country free from Somalia. The Somaliland representative to the UK and local Somaliland residents were delighted.”
We deeply appreciate Liverpool City Council’s July 24th, 2024 motion re-recognizing Somaliland’s independence. This milestone is a testament to the tireless efforts of the #Somaliland community in Liverpool, the UK Mission, and advocates worldwide. We congratulate all involved! pic.twitter.com/NkshhG8WNX
— Somaliland Diaspora Office (@SldiasporaGN) July 25, 2024
The Somaliland Diaspora Office wrote on X: “We deeply appreciate Liverpool City Council’s July 24, 2024 motion re-recognizing Somaliland’s independence. This milestone is a testament to the tireless efforts of the Somaliland community in Liverpool, the UK Mission, and advocates worldwide. We congratulate all involved!” Williamson praised Liverpool’s decision and urged Lammy to take note. Since the UK and US were forced to intervene against Houthi terrorists from Yemen in the Gulf of Aden — one of the world’s key shipping routes — pressure has increased to rethink recognition of Somaliland. Its port of Berbera has been described as a potential base for UK and US military operations. Ethiopia last year became the first African country to agree any form of recognition with Somaliland with a deal that gave it access to the sea. The move infuriated Somalia which claims Somaliland as part of its territory and led to mass protests.
On a different voice, the Memorandum of Understanding that Somaliland and Ethiopia signed on January 1, 2024, was greatly praised by Lord Stuart Polak recently at the House of Commons session as a historic and consequential accord.
He underlined that the world maritime gateway and the Horn of Africa will both greatly benefit from this historic accord in terms of peace and development.
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia — The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued a strongly worded statement in response to recent accusations from the Somali government, escalating diplomatic tensions in the Horn of Africa. The press release, published on July 26 in both English and Somali, refutes what Ethiopia calls “unwarranted and irresponsible statements” from Somali officials.
The timing of this diplomatic clash is significant, coming shortly after reports of militias in Somalia looting truckloads of heavy weapons. This incident appears to validate concerns raised by Somaliland regarding the UN’s decision to lift its arms embargo on Somalia.
Ethiopia’s statement emphasizes its long-standing role as an ally to Somalia: “For more than three decades, we’ve sacrificed for Somalia’s peace. Now, they repay us with baseless accusations.” This sentiment underscores the sense of betrayal felt in Addis Ababa and highlights the complex nature of regional relationships.
Somalia has floated the idea of alternative areas for an Ethiopian naval base, suggesting that their primary concern is not necessarily about preventing Ethiopia from accessing Somali territory. Instead, the core issue seems to be the potential implicit recognition of Somaliland’s sovereignty that the Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU represents. This nuance contradicts Somalia’s framing of the issue as a nationalistic defense of its territory.
Attempts at diplomatic resolution have so far yielded little progress. Turkey-mediated talks between Somalia and Ethiopia, held in Ankara on July 1st has failed to produce any significant breakthroughs.
The Ethiopian government expresses deep concern over the proliferation of illegal arms in the region, citing “porous borders and unregulated coastal lines” as factors contributing to the issue. This situation is further complicated by recent geopolitical developments.
Somalia has recently signed defense pacts with Turkey and Egypt, moves seen as attempts to counter the Somaliland-Ethiopia Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). Turkey has agreed to assist Somalia in developing its naval capabilities, while Egypt’s involvement adds another layer of complexity to regional dynamics.
However, experts note that neither Egypt nor Turkey has the capacity to mount meaningful or kinetic action in Somaliland, which lies outside their immediate sphere of influence. While these alliances may represent diplomatic posturing and an attempt to pressure Ethiopia into negotiations, the possibility of preventing the Somaliland-Ethiopia MoU by force seems far-fetched. Both countries lack the resources and technical capability to sustain such an effort over the long term and across such distances.
The Egypt-Somalia alliance is particularly noteworthy given the ongoing dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Ethiopia considers the GERD crucial for its development, while Egypt fears it will impact its share of Nile waters. Egypt’s support for Somalia is viewed as a strategic move to balance Ethiopia’s influence in the region and secure its interests in the Red Sea, even if direct intervention remains unlikely.
These developments may prompt Ethiopia to accelerate its deal with Somaliland, aiming to establish a strategic presence along the coast to counteract potential naval threats. The Egyptian Navy’s considerable strength in the region adds urgency to Ethiopia’s strategic considerations.
Meanwhile, Ethiopian troops continue to play a crucial role in Somalia as part of the African Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), working to prevent the country from being overrun by Al-Shabaab. This ongoing military involvement underscores the interconnected nature of security issues in the region.
In a chilling vindication of Somaliland’s warnings, truckloads of weapons have been looted in central Somalia, mere months after the controversial lifting of the UN arms embargo. This brazen attack has sent shockwaves through the region, confirming the worst fears of those who cautioned against the politically motivated lifting of the embargo and its potential to flood the volatile Horn of Africa with more arms.
The Somaliland government, which had vehemently opposed the embargo’s lifting, has renewed its dire warnings about the consequences of this ill-fated decision. In a forceful statement, Somaliland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs decried the UN Security Council’s resolution, asserting that it poses “grave risks to the stability and security of the Horn of Africa region.”
The recent incident in South Central Somalia has shockingly validated Somaliland’s warnings. A convoy carrying a vast arsenal was ambushed and looted, resulting in a disturbing spectacle reminiscent of scenes from “Lord of War.” Social media erupted with images of women and children brandishing an array of small arms, a chilling visualization of weapons proliferation. According to various news agencies, the incident claimed at least five lives.
Horn of Africa analyst Rashid Abdi dubbed it “the single most serious incident of arms proliferation in central Somalia.” This grim tableau of civilians, including vulnerable groups, handling military-grade weapons starkly illustrates the chaos unleashed by the embargo lift. The scene tragically vindicates Somaliland’s repeated warnings about the dangers of unrestricted arms flow in this volatile region, painting a bleak picture of a future where deadly weapons are commonplace even among the most vulnerable populations.
Adding to the embarrassment, on July 12, 2023, the United States donated weapons and ammunition to Somalia in its fight against terrorism. This decision has been criticized as another blunder, with fears that these weapons may end up in the hands of terrorist groups like Al-Shabaab. This incident underscores the risks of supplying arms to unstable regions without stringent safeguards. The U.S. Embassy in Somalia announced the donation as part of a broader effort to support the Somali government, but critics argue that it may inadvertently exacerbate the security situation in the region.
Somaliland’s government has long maintained that lifting the embargo would inevitably lead to weapons falling into the hands of terrorist groups, a scenario that now seems to be unfolding. The statement from Hargeisa pulls no punches, expressing profound doubt about Somalia’s capacity to manage and secure these weapons effectively.
The contrast between Somalia’s volatility and Somaliland’s stability couldn’t be starker. For over three decades, Somaliland has maintained peace within its borders, a fact that its government argues should have been given more weight in regional security considerations. Now, Somaliland fears that the influx of arms into the region directly threatens its hard-earned peace and stability.
As the situation spirals, Somaliland is calling for an urgent reconsideration of the decision to lift the arms embargo. The government advocates for a more nuanced approach to regional security, one that recognizes the complex dynamics of the Horn of Africa and the unique position of stable entities like Somaliland.
The international community now faces a rapidly escalating crisis. The need for immediate action—including enhanced border controls and a reassessment of the arms embargo decision—has never been more pressing. The recent looting incident serves as a stark reminder of the powder keg that the Horn of Africa has become, with the potential to undo years of stabilization efforts in a matter of moments.
As the UN Security Council deliberated on lifting the embargo, Somaliland’s warnings of catastrophic consequences fell on deaf ears. Now, with weapons flowing freely and falling into the wrong hands, those dire predictions have become a stark reality. The international community stands at a critical juncture, facing the urgent need to heed Somaliland’s renewed calls for action. Failure to respond swiftly and decisively risks plunging the region further into chaos, leaving it heavily armed and on the brink of widespread conflict. The Horn of Africa teeters on a precipice, with the specter of escalating violence looming large over its fragile peace.
