Investigative Reports

The Diplomacy of Gullibility: How Somaliland’s Foreign Ministry Keeps Falling for International Fraudsters

In what has become a familiar scene in Somaliland's...

Ex-US Ambassador to Somalia Lobbies for Hormuud’s Access to American Banking System

Questions mount as André partners with Somali MP who...

Major Corruption Allegations Rock Somaliland Finance Ministry’s Recruitment for World Bank’s Public Resource Management Project

According to documents examined by Somaliland Chronicle, serious allegations...
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Breaking — United States Government Pledges Direct Engagement with Somaliland

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According to sources present in today’s meeting between the delegation led by the President of Somaliland Muse Bihi Abdi and officials from the Departments of State and Defense and USAID, the two sides agreed on cooperating on a range of issues, most notably security and economic cooperation. Sources add that President Bihi held a brief private discussion with Molly Phee, who heads the Bureau of African Affairs.

Security cooperation that was discussed by President Bihi’s delegation and officials from the Department of Defense, as well as members of Africa Command, will include direct cooperation with Somaliland security forces in counter-terrorism and maritime security. This will be the first time the United States works directly with Somaliland on matters pertaining to security. Sources declined to confirm if the United States will share critical and real-time intelligence for counter-terrorism purposes.

A statement issued by the State Department Bureau of African Affairs confirmed the meeting between President Bihi’s delegation and US government officials and the discussion of US engagement with Somaliland and although it ended that all cooperation will be within the framework of a single Somalia policy, sources stated that the only time Somalia came up in a conversation was a question that was posed to President Bihi on his view of the possibility of further Somaliland and Somalia talks when there is a different regime in Mogadishu where he responded that he sees little value in continuing such fruitless talks and that Somaliland already has what it wants and that is its independence and sovereignty.

One of the immediate things that will be implemented as part of the discussion between the governments of the United States and Somaliland is to update the State Department’s Travel Advisory to reflect the favorable security conditions in Somaliland.

Although far from recognition, the pledge by the United States Departments of State and Defense of direct engagement with the Republic of Somaliland reflects a turning point in US government policy where the Executive Branch of the US government is not in alignment with members of Congress and will implement the security cooperation in Senator Risch’s Amendment in the Defense Authorization Act.

Ukraine war: fresh warning that Africa needs to be vigilant against Russia’s destabilising influence

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Joseph Siegle, University of Maryland

It’s commonly held that Russian president Vladimir Putin’s objective for invading Ukraine is to install a puppet regime that is pliable to Moscow’s interests. If so, this would be consistent with the approach Russia has taken with its forays into Africa in recent years.

Drawing from its Syria playbook, Russia has propped up proxies in Libya, Central African Republic, Mali and Sudan. Moscow also has its sights on another half dozen African leaders facing varying degrees of vulnerability.

In the process, African citizen and sovereign interests have given way to Russian priorities.

This elite cooption strategy effectively serves Russia’s strategic objectives in Africa. These include, first, to gain a foothold in the southern Mediterranean and the Red Sea, putting Russia in a position to threaten NATO’s southern flank and international shipping chokeholds.

Second, to demonstrate Russia’s Great Power status whose interests must be considered in every region of the world.

And third, to displace western influence in Africa while undermining support for democracy.

Russia has often used extralegal tools to pursue its objectives on the continent. It has deployed mercenaries, run disinformation campaigns, interfered in elections and bartered arms for resources. This low-cost, high yield approach has enabled Moscow to expand its influence in Africa more rapidly, arguably, than any other external actor since 2018 when Russia ramped up its Africa engagements.

Regrettably for African citizens, these tactics are all inherently destabilising. Moreover, the result is disenfranchisement and diminished African sovereignty.

Russia’s expanding influence portends a bleak vision for Africa. In effect, Russia is attempting to export its governance model – of an authoritarian, kleptocratic, and transactional regime – onto Africa.

This is especially problematic since there are at least a handful of African leaders who are more than happy to go down this path. Never mind that this diverges wildly from the democratic aspirations held by the vast majority of African citizens.

The United Nations’ vote on Russia’s invasion in Ukraine provides a useful prism to understand relationships between Moscow and particular African countries. It reveals a spectrum of governance norms and visions for Africa. It is through these lenses and interests that groups of African countries can be expected to engage with Russia moving forward – with far-reaching consequences for democracy, security and sovereignty on the continent.

Puppets, patrons and pushback

The UN General Assembly resolution condemning the Russian aggression garnered only one dissenting African vote – Eritrea. This was accompanied by strong denunciations of the Russian attack on Ukraine by the African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of West African States. The current chair of the AU, Senegal’s President Macky Sall, and AU Commission chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat also criticised Russia’s unprovoked war.

In total, 28 of Africa’s 54 countries voted to condemn the Russian invasion, 16 abstained and 9 did not vote. All in all, the vote was a remarkable rebuke of Moscow from a continent where many African leaders’ worldviews are shaped by a posture of non-alignment, raw legacies from the Cold War, African diplomatic politesse, and a desire to remain neutral in Great Power rivalries.

The vote also revealed a widening segmentation of governance norms in Africa. And it shows that African relations with Russia from here on in will not be uniform – nor abruptly reversed.

The African countries that abstained, or did not vote, did so for a variety of reasons. The most obvious category of country unwilling to condemn Russia was those with African leaders who have been co-opted by Moscow. These included Faustin-Archange Touadéra in the Central African Republic, Lt. General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in Sudan, and Colonel Assimi Goïta in Mali.

These leaders lack legitimacy domestically. They depend on Moscow’s political and mercenary support to hold onto power.

A second category among the countries that abstained or did not vote is those with leaders who have patronage ties with Russia. Those in power in Algeria, Angola, Burundi, Guinea, Equatorial Guinea, Madagascar, Mozambique, South Sudan, Uganda and Zimbabwe benefit from Russian arms, disinformation or political cover. These leaders, moreover, have no interest in democratic processes that may threaten their hold on power.

Others who abstained or did not vote likely did so for ideological reasons rooted in their traditions of non-alignment. These included Morocco, Namibia, Senegal and South Africa. While they may maintain ties to Moscow, they are appalled by Russia’s imperialistic actions. By and large, they support the upholding of international law to maintain peace and security.

Those who voted to condemn the invasion included leading African democracies and democratisers. These comprised Botswana, Cabo Verde, Ghana, Malawi, Mauritius, Niger, Nigeria, Kenya, Seychelles, Sierra Leone and Zambia. They represent a mix of motivations. But I calculated that the median Global Freedom score for this group of 28 countries based on Freedom House’s annual (0-100) ratings is 20 points higher than those that did not vote to condemn.

The powerful speech by Kenya’s ambassador to the United Nations, Martin Kimani, in defence of respecting sovereignty, territorial integrity, and resolving differences through non-violent means, epitomises the views of this group and its support for a rules-based order. Many have also taken the lead in condemning the surge in coups and third termism on the continent.

Priorities for action

If the past is any indication, Russia can be expected to escalate its influence campaign in Africa in reaction to its international isolation following the Ukraine invasion.

To mitigate Russia’s malign influences, African and international actors wishing to advance a democratic, rules-based order for the continent should take some decisive steps.

First is to invest in democratic institutions and democratic partners. Democratic checks and balances are the best bulwark against nefarious external influences.

Second, coups and third termism must be strongly condemned.

Third, building the capacity and space of African journalists is especially vital. Without a free and informed discourse, it is difficult to have a national dialogue on priorities and preferences. Or to hold political leaders accountable for their actions.

Fourth, is to enforce the African Convention for the Elimination of Mercenarism, which went into effect in 1985. This legally prohibits African states from allowing mercenaries into their territory and should be employed to bar Wagner from the continent.

Fifth, there must be investment in Africa’s professional militaries. This will bolster democracy. A growing number of African militaries have become politicised. This has contributed to the upsurge of coups as well as the use of militaries as a coercive tool against political opponents.

Strengthening African citizens’ agency is also key. Russia’s malign influences can be mitigated by strengthening African civil society to ensure independent voices are not muffled. Civil society can also heighten scrutiny and transparency of opaque contracts that tend to provide the patronage that props up coopted regimes.

Another means of enhancing African agency is to support the efforts of African regional organisations such as the African Union. The AU and the regional economic communities have adopted charters advancing democratic norms and processes. These bodies can help uphold democratic norms when there are violations. And they can reduce the scope for external interference.

Internationally, democratic governments need to sustain long-term partnerships with their African counterparts. African countries with legitimately elected leaders shouldn’t be put in a position to choose between international partners. It’s reasonable that African governments will want to have multiple external relationships subject to their context and interests. This is especially so given the legacies of colonialism and the struggles for independence that defined the creation of many African countries. Rather, the focus of these partnerships should be on maximising a shared vision of what a rules-based order should look like and how it can be put into practice.

In the end, Russia doesn’t have much to offer African leaders other than coercive tools. If these are diminished, then so too will be Russia’s destabilising influences on the continent.

Joseph Siegle, Director of Research, Africa Center for Strategic Studies, University of Maryland

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Villa Somalia Sought to Prevent Somaliland Delegation’s Visit to the United States

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According to diplomatic sources briefed on the matter, Somalia’s President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo has sought Qatar’s help in convincing the United States Department of State to deny visas to the President of the Republic of Somaliland HE Muse Bihi Abdi, and members of his delegation. Sources add that Farmajo’s appeal to the Qatari Amir during his recent visit to Qatar comes after Somalia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ similar appeals to regional embassies were unsuccessful.

The President of the Republic of Somaliland HE Muse Bihi Abdi and a large delegation consisting of the Ministers of Interior, Environment, Industry, Commerce, and Tourism, and Information as well as members of the business community from Somaliland’s largest enterprises such as Telesom, SOMTEL, SOMCABLE, have departed Egal International and are due to arrive in Dulles International Airport tomorrow morning.

In addition to the appeal to the Qatari Amir, Somalia’s federal government has directly approached the United States embassies in Djibouti, Kenya as well as the State Department to prevent visa issuance to President Bihi and members of his delegation.

Garowe Online has reported on Twitter that the United States Embassy in Djibouti has denied the visa applications of the Minister of Interior Hon. Mohamed Kahin Ahmed and the Minister of Information and National Guidance Hon. Saleban Ali Kore. Somaliland government has, via Minister Kore, called the report fake. It is unclear if the outlet’s sources include Somali government officials privy to Villa Somalia’s efforts to prevent Bihi’s delegation from visiting the United States.

Although some cabinet members accompanying President Bihi are United States citizens and did not require visas, the Somaliland government has confirmed visas to members of the delegation, specifically for President Bihi and the Ministers of Interior and Information were issued on Somaliland passports.

Somalia’s Federal Government under Mohamed Abdulahi Farmajo has sought to destabilize and isolate Somaliland economically and diplomatically and has sided with China which vigorously opposes any diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Somalia and China have condemned the establishment of diplomatic ties between Somaliland and Taiwan as an infringement of their territorial integrity.

Somaliland government has been unusually tight-lipped on whether President Bihi and his delegation will meet with members of the Biden Administration or US Congress or whether the visit is related to reports of US interest in establishing a military base in Somaliland.

Although the United States weighing the potential for a military base in Somaliland have been widely reported, one cornerstone of such arrangements — the Status of Forces Agreement which the United States signs with any country that hosts US military personnel is not in place and so far both the United States Africa Command and the Somaliland government have not responded to questions about ongoing talks.

SOMALILANDERS WORLDWIDE BE VIGILANT!!

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(1). There are Anti-Somaliland movements led by Somaliland opponents on an international scale!!

Since 22 all-party-group Members of the British House of Commons have seriously deliberated over Somaliland’s recognition case on January 18th, 2022; there have been emerging strong conspiracy movements going on against Somaliland’s cause, particularly in the U.S.A, UK, EU countries, and elsewhere. The main objective of all those Anti-Somaliland Diaspora Movements led by our nemesis is to undermine our righteous and legitimate goal towards which the people of Somaliland have been cherishing for the past thirty years: “An independent State of Somaliland fully recognized among free global nations!”

Somaliland’s opponents are seriously preparing to hijack, sabotage, and misinterpret the recent international attention to Somaliland’s quest for recognition where the global community is just catching up to the decades-long ignored reality of the Republic of Somaliland.

In order to derail Somaliland’s recognition quest; in America for instance, Somaliland antagonists are hiring highly specialized law firms which they give them a clear mandate to prepare and submit a unionist legally substantiated contra-argument -(directed to the governments of UK, U.S.A, EU Member States, and other international bodies such as UN, AU, Arab League, IOC, etc)- that goes straight against Somaliland’s quest for recognition & self-determination.

(2). HATEFUL ALLEGED DEMONSTRATIONS:

According to very reliable insider information sources, Somaliland’s opponents in North America are planning to demonstrate against our President H.E. Muse Bihi Abdi during his official state visit to the United States of America and Canada. They also want to carry and display all hateful slogans and scriptures in front of our President and members of his delegation. During the alleged demonstrations, Somaliland opponents want to depict Somaliland’s quest for recognition as an illegal and unattainable cause pursued by a cessationist and breakaway northern region of Somalia, while heavenly advocating for the restoration of the MYTH and MENACE of the FOREVER DEAD-UNITY between Somaliland and Somalia.

(3). United Somalilanders Movement Worldwide 🌐:

Each of us in Somaliland and in the Diaspora has not only a patriotic responsibility but also an obligation to defend our beloved country and confront by word and deed to those undermining our country’s interests. Organizing our people in the diaspora and at home is of paramount and immediate importance.

Somaliland’s enemies inside and outside are working day and night, and often in concert and cahoots, to sabotage our quest for recognition, to promote conflict and strife among Somalilanders, and propagate lies, fake news, and disinformation.

Therefore, in order to curb, counter and combat those who are opposing Somaliland’s quest for self-determination and independence, we need a much more organized, integrated, strategic, and global level movement both at home and in the diaspora.

(4). UNITY 🤝 IS WHAT MAKES US SUCCESSFUL!

Unity is the basic ingredient that makes every nation successful. Therefore, as Somalilanders, the factors that bind us and bring our people together are far more important than those minor things that we may hold different views. We need to emphasize and strengthen the key elements that work for the social fabric and public interest and bring our citizens together.

The challenge that hovers on the sovereignty and recognition endeavor of our nation is ever more compelling reasons for each and every one of us to maintain our nation’s unity and sense of togetherness. In this historic crossroad, we need to set aside our small differences driven by domestic political point-scoring designed for local consumption. Let us show to our enemies our nation’s strength by displaying our people’s unity, spirit, togetherness, and decisiveness in defending our noble common cause!

(5). CONCLUSION:

The Republic of Somaliland is surrounded by geographically hostile, volatile, and hate-breeding countries. At a time of rising hostility and animosity towards the existence of our nation and country, Somaliland people have no other choice but to defend their country’s independence and sovereignty with WORD, DEED, AND STRENGTH.

Therefore, wherever Somalilanders live worldwide, we must remain very vigilant! We must closely monitor and keep a watchful eye on all those devilish movements against Somaliland’s recognition cause. Let us seek and unmask our adversaries and prepare ourselves to engage with our opponents wherever and whoever they are. We ought to defend our country’s independence, freedom, and sovereignty by all means possible and with all our might.

ALLAH BLESS AND PROTECT THE REPUBLIC OF SOMALILAND.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Eng. Hussein Adan Igeh (Deyr) is the Former Minister of Trade & Investment and Former Presidential Spokesman.

Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints of the Somaliland Chronicle and its staff. 

Creative Commons License

Notice: This article by Somaliland Chronicle is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. Under this license, all reprints and non-commercial distribution of this work are permitted.

President Bihi Inaugurates the Opening of the Largest Bridge in Somaliland

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The President of the Republic of Somaliland HE Muse Bihi Abdi has inaugurated the opening of the largest bridge ever built in Somaliland spanning one of Somaliland’s largest and most dangerous dry river valley of Da’ar Budhuq that have ground vital traffic from and to Berbera to a halt during the rainy season and have cost many lives.

The President noted many lives lost to the Da’ar Budhuq dry river valley, which floods during the rainy season and causes transportation disruption in the country’s busiest commercial artery to and from Berbera Port.

“I would like to tell the people of Somaliland, wherever they are, that when a project is being developed, we need to stand together. I do not have the energy to build, the energy to mine, the energy to extract fuel, the energy to carry out major projects and yet I will stand in the way and my will shall be done is the wrong mindset. The constitution says that the resources to the nation of Somaliland, and the nation has entrusted it to the government. The only way we will develop is to accept the direction set forth by the government” said President Muse Bihi Abdi speaking at the event.

The President noted that many lives were lost to the Da’ar Budhuq dry river valley which floods during the rainy season and creates major transportation disruption in the country’s busiest commercial artery to and from Berbera Port.

Although the government has instituted basic safety vehicle measures such as mandatory seatbelts and vehicle safety inspection, traffic laws are arcane at best and are rarely enforced. The majority of vehicles in Somaliland are righthanded vehicles where the road remains left-handed. Traffic signals and basic signs are also exceedingly rare in Somaliland.

Multiple attempts by the Ministry of Transport and Roads Development ordering the installation of speed limiters on trucks and other public transport and reconfiguration of bus entrances to ensure passengers do not disembark onto incoming traffic have failed.

The inauguration of the bridge was attended by Emariti officials from the United Arab Emarites Trade Representatives Office and other foreign dignitaries and representatives of various countries in Somaliland.

FACT SHEET: Joined by Allies and Partners, the United States Imposes Devastating Costs on Russia

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The White House
Statements and Releases
February 24, 2022 

Russia to Face Massive Costs from its Isolation from the Global Financial and Trade System and Cutting-Edge Technology

Today, the United States, along with Allies and partners, is imposing severe and immediate economic costs on Russia in response to Putin’s war of choice against Ukraine. Today’s actions include sweeping financial sanctions and stringent export controls that will have a profound impact on Russia’s economy, financial system, and access to cutting-edge technology. The sanctions measures impose severe costs on Russia’s largest financial institutions and will further isolate Russia from the global financial system. With today’s financial sanctions, we have now targeted all ten of Russia’s largest financial institutions, including the imposition of full blocking and correspondent and payable-through account sanctions, and debt and equity restrictions, on institutions holding nearly 80% of Russian banking sector assets. The unprecedented export control measures will cut off more than half of Russia’s high-tech imports, restricting Russia’s access to vital technological inputs, atrophying its industrial base, and undercutting Russia’s strategic ambitions to exert influence on the world stage. The impact of these measures will be significantly magnified due to historical multilateral cooperation with a wide range of Allies and partners who are mirroring our actions, inhibiting Putin’s ambition to diversify Russia’s brittle, one-dimensional economy. The scale of Putin’s aggression and the threat it poses to the international order require a resolute response, and we will continue imposing severe costs if he does not change course.

Putin’s threatening actions and now his unprovoked aggression toward Ukraine are being met with an unprecedented level of multilateral cooperation. The United States welcomes the commitments by Australia, Canada, the European Union, Japan, and the United Kingdom that they will also take similarly forceful actions to hold Russia accountable – demonstrating the strength of our partnerships and deepening the impact on Russia more than any action we could have taken alone. This follows our joint action earlier this week to impose a first tranche of severe sanctions on Russia.

As a result of Putin’s war of choice, Russia will face immediate and intense pressure on its economy, and massive costs from its isolation from the global financial system, global trade, and cutting-edge technology. This includes cutting off Russia’s largest bank from the U.S. financial system – a significant blow to its ability to function and process global trade. It also includes full blocking sanctions on Russia’s second largest bank – freezing any of its assets touching the U.S. financial system.  Russia’s ability to access global markets, attract investment, and utilize the U.S. dollar will be devastated.

Russia’s economy has already faced intensified pressure in recent weeks; just today its stock market sunk to its lowest level in four and a half years, and the ruble weakened beyond its weakest daily settlement price on record – before additional sanctions were even imposed. With these new stringent measures, these pressures will further accumulate and suppress Russia’s economic growth, increase its borrowing costs, raise inflation, intensify capital outflows, and erode its industrial base. The United States and our Allies and partners are unified and will continue to impose costs, forcing Putin to look to other countries that cannot replicate the financial and technology strengths of Western markets.
Today, the United States carried out the following actions:

  • Severing the connection to the U.S. financial system for Russia’s largest financial institution, Sberbank, including 25 subsidiaries, by imposing correspondent and payable-through account sanctions. This action will restrict Sberbank’s access to transactions made in the dollar. Sberbank is the largest bank in Russia, holds nearly one-third of the overall Russian banking sector’s assets, is heavily connected to the global financial system, and is systemically critical to the Russian financial system.
     
  • Full blocking sanctions on Russia’s second largest financial institution, VTB Bank (VTB), including 20 subsidiaries. This action will freeze any of VTB’s assets touching the U.S financial system and prohibit U.S. persons from dealing with them. VTB holds nearly one-fifth of the overall Russian banking sector’s assets, is heavily exposed to the U.S. and western financial systems, and is systemically critical to the Russian financial system.
     
  • Full blocking sanctions on three other major Russian financial institutions: Bank Otkritie, Sovcombank OJSC, and Novikombank- and 34 subsidiaries. These sanctions freeze any of these institutions’ assets touching the U.S financial system and prohibit U.S. persons from dealing with them. These financial institutions play a significant a role in the Russian economy.
     
  • New debt and equity restrictions on thirteen of the most critical major Russian enterprises and entities. This includes restrictions on all transactions in, provision of financing for, and other dealings in new debt of greater than 14 days maturity and new equity issued by thirteen Russian state-owned enterprises and entities:  Sberbank, AlfaBank, Credit Bank of Moscow, Gazprombank, Russian Agricultural Bank, Gazprom, Gazprom Neft, Transneft, Rostelecom, RusHydro, Alrosa, Sovcomflot, and Russian Railways. These entities, including companies critical to the Russian economy with estimated assets of nearly $1.4 trillion, will not be able to raise money through the U.S. market — a key source of capital and revenue generation, which limits the Kremlin’s ability to raise money for its activity.
     
  • Additional full blocking sanctions on Russian elites and their family members: Sergei Ivanov (and his son, Sergei), Nikolai Patrushev (and his son Andrey), Igor Sechin (and his son Ivan), Andrey Puchkov, Yuriy Solviev (and two real estate companies he owns), Galina Ulyutina, and Alexander Vedyakhin. This action includes individuals who have enriched themselves at the expense of the Russian state, and have elevated their family members into some of the highest position of powers in the country. It also includes financial figures who sit atop Russia’s largest financial institutions and are responsible for providing the resources necessary to support Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. This action follows up on yesterday’s action targeting Russian elites and their family members and cuts them off from the U.S. financial system, freezes any assets they hold in the United States and blocks their travel to the United States.
     
  • Costs on Belarus for supporting a further invasion of Ukraine by sanctioning 24 Belarusian individuals and entities, including targeting Belarus’ military and financial capabilities by sanctioning two significant Belarusian state-owned banks, nine defense firms, and seven regime-connected official and elites. We call on Belarus to withdraw its support for Russian aggression in Ukraine.
     
  • Sweeping restrictions on Russia’s military to strike a blow to Putin’s military and strategic ambitions.  This includes measures against military end users, including the Russian Ministry of Defense. Exports of nearly all U.S. items and items produced in foreign countries using certain U.S.-origin software, technology, or equipment will be restricted to targeted military end users. These comprehensive restrictions apply to the Russian Ministry of Defense, including the Armed Forces of Russia, wherever located.
     
  • Russia-wide restrictions to choke off Russia’s import of technological goods critical to a diversified economy and Putin’s ability to project power. This includes Russia-wide denial of exports of sensitive technology, primarily targeting the Russian defense, aviation, and maritime sectors to cut off Russia’s access to cutting-edge technology. In addition to sweeping restrictions on the Russian-defense sector, the United States government will impose Russia-wide restrictions on sensitive U.S. technologies produced in foreign countries using U.S.-origin software, technology, or equipment. This includes Russia-wide restrictions on semiconductors, telecommunication, encryption security, lasers, sensors, navigation, avionics and maritime technologies. These severe and sustained controls will cut off Russia’s access to cutting edge technology.
     
  • Historical multilateral cooperation that serves as a force multiplier in restricting more than $50 billion in key inputs to Russia- impacting far more than that in Russia’s production. As a result of this multilateral coordination, we will provide an exemption for other countries that adopt equally stringent measures. Countries that adopt substantially similar export restrictions are exempted from new U.S. licensing requirements for items produced in their countries. The European Union, Australia, Japan, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom, have already communicated their plans for parallel actions. This unprecedented coordination significantly expands the scope of restrictions on Russia. Further engagement with Allies and partners will continue to maximize the impact on Russia’s military capabilities.

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Remarks by President Biden Of the United States on Russia’s Unprovoked and Unjustified Attack on Ukraine

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The White House
Speeches and Remarks
February 24, 2022

THE PRESIDENT:  Sorry to keep you waiting.  Good afternoon.  The Russian military has begun a brutal assault on the people of Ukraine without provocation, without justification, without necessity.

This is a premeditated attack.  Vladimir Putin has been planning this for months, as I’ve been — as we’ve been saying all along.  He moved more than 175,000 troops, military equipment into positions along the Ukrainian border.

He moved blood supplies into position and built a field hospital, which tells you all you need to know about his intentions all along.

He rejected every good-faith effort the United States and our Allies and partners made to address our mutual security concerns through dialogue to avoid needless conflict and avert human suffering.

For weeks — for weeks, we have been warning that this would happen.  And now it’s unfolding largely as we predicted.

In the past week, we’ve seen shelling increase in the Donbas, the region in eastern Ukraine controlled by Russian-backed separatists.

Rus- — the Russian government has perpetrated cyberattacks against Ukraine.

We saw a staged political theater in Moscow — outlandish and baseless claims that Ukraine was — Ukraine was about to invade and launch a war against Russia, that Ukraine was prepared to use chemical weapons, that Ukraine committed a genocide — without any evidence.

We saw a flagrant violation of international law in attempting to unilaterally create two new so-called republics on sovereign Ukrainian territory.

And at the very moment that the United Nations Security Council was meeting to stand up for Ukraine’s sovereignty to stave off invasion, Putin declared his war.

Within moments — moments, missile strikes began to fall on historic cities across Ukraine.

Then came in the air raids, followed by tanks and troops rolling in.

We’ve been transparent with the world.  We’ve shared declassified evidence about Russia’s plans and cyberattacks and false pretexts so that there can be no confusion or cover-up about what Putin was doing.

Putin is the aggressor.  Putin chose this war.  And now he and his country will bear the consequences.

Today, I’m authorizing additional strong sanctions and new limitations on what can be exported to Russia.

This is going to impose severe costs on the Russian economy, both immediately and over time.

We have purposefully designed these sanctions to maximize the long-term impact on Russia and to minimize the impact on the United States and our Allies. 

And I want to be clear: The United States is not doing this alone.  For months, we’ve been building a coalition of partners representing well more than half of the global economy.

Twenty-seven members of the European Union, including France, Germany, Italy — as well as the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and many others — to amplify the joint impact of our response.

I just spoke with the G7 leaders this morning, and we are in full and total agreement.  We will limit Russia’s ability to do business in Dollars, Euros, Pounds, and Yen to be part of the global economy.  We will limit their ability to do that.  We are going to stunt the ability to finance and grow Rus- — the Russian military.

We’re going to impose major — and we’re going to impair their ability to compete in a high-tech 21st century economy.

We’ve already seen the impact of our actions on Russia’s currency, the Ruble, which early today hit its weakest level ever — ever in history.  And the Russian stock market plunged today.  The Russian government’s borrowing rate spiked by over 15 percent.

In today’s actions, we have now sanctioned Russian banks that together hold around $1 trillion in assets.

We’ve cut off Russia’s largest bank — a bank that holds more than one third of Russia’s banking assets by itself — cut it off from the U.S. financial system. 

And today, we’re also blocking four more major banks.  That means every asset they have in America will be frozen.  This includes V.T.B., the second-largest bank in Russia, which has $250 billion in assets.

As promised, we’re also adding names to the list of Russian elites and their family members that are sanctioning — that we’re sanctioning as well.

As I said on Tuesday, these are people who personally gain from the Kremlin’s policies and they should share in the pain.  We will keep up this drumbeat of those designations against corrupt billionaires in the days ahead.

On Tuesday, we stopped the Russian government from raising money from U.S. or European investors.

Now, we’re going to apply the same restrictions to Russia’s largest state-owned enterprises — companies with assets that exceed $1.4 trillion.

Some of the most powerful impacts of our actions will come over time as we squeeze Russia’s access to finance and technology for strategic sectors of its economy and degrade its industrial capacity for years to come.

Between our actions and those of our Allies and partners, we estimate that we’ll cut off more than half of Russia’s high-tech imports.

It will strike a blow to their ability to continue to modernize their military.  It’ll degrade their aerospace industry, including their space program.  It will hurt their ability to build ships, reducing their ability to compete economically.  And it will be a major hit to Putin’s long-term strategic ambitions. 

And we’re preparing to do more.  In addition to the economic penalties we’re imposing, we’re also taking steps to defend our NATO Allies, particularly in the east.

Tomorrow, NATO will convene a summit — we’ll be there — to bring together the leaders of 30 Allied nations and close partners to affirm our solidarity and to map out the next steps we will take to further strengthen all aspects of our NATO Alliance.

Although we provided over $650 million in defensive assistance to Ukraine just this year — this last year, let me say it again: Our forces are not and will not be engaged in the conflict with Russia in Ukraine.  Our forces are not going to Europe to fight in Ukraine but to defend our NATO Allies and reassure those Allies in the east.

As I made crystal clear, the United States will defend every inch of NATO territory with the full force of American power.  And the good news is: NATO is more united and more determined than ever.

There is no doubt — no doubt that the United States and every NATO Ally will meet our Article 5 commitments, which says that an attack on one is an attack on all.

Over the past few weeks, I ordered thousands of additional forces to Germany and Poland as part of our commitment to NATO.

On Tuesday, in response to Russia’s aggressive action, including its troop presence in Belarus and the Black Sea, I’ve authorized the deployment of ground and air forces already stationed in Europe to NATO’s eastern flank Allies: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Romania.

Our Allies have also been stepping up, adding — the other Allies, the rest of NATO — adding their own forces and capabilities to ensure our collective defense.

And today, within hours of Russia’s unleashing its assault, NATO came together and authorized and activated — an activation of response plans.

This will enable NATO’s high-readiness forces to deploy and — when and where they’re needed to protect our NATO Allies on the eastern boundaries of Europe.

And now I’m authorizing additional U.S. forces and capabilities to deploy to Germany as part of NATO’s response, including some of U.S.-based forces that the Department of Defense placed on standby weeks ago.

I’ve also spoken with Defense Secretary Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Milley, about preparations for additional moves should they become necessary to protect our NATO Allies and support the greatest military alliance in the history of the world — NATO.

As we respond, my administration is using the tools — every tool at our disposal to protect American families and businesses from rising prices at the gas pump.

You know, we’re taking active steps to bring down the costs.  And American oil and gas companies should not — should not exploit this moment to hike their prices to raise profits.

You know, in our sanctions package, we specifically designed to allow energy payments to continue.

We are closely monitoring energy supplies for any disruption.  We have been coordinating with major oil-producing and consuming countries toward our common interest to secure global energy supplies.

We are actively working with countries around the world to elevate [evaluate] a collective release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves of major energy-consuming countries.  And the United States will release additional barrels of oil as conditions warrant.

I know this is hard and that Americans are already hurting.  I will do everything in my power to limit the pain the American people are feeling at the gas pump.  This is critical to me.

But this aggression cannot go unanswered.  If it did, the consequences for America would be much worse.  America stands up to bullies.  We stand up for freedom.  This is who we are.

Let me also repeat the warning I made last week: If Russia pursues cyberattacks against our companies, our critical infrastructure, we are prepared to respond.

For months, we have been working closely with our private — with the private sector to harden their cyber defenses, sharpen our ability to respond to Russian cyberattacks as well.

I spoke late last night to President Zelenskyy of Ukraine and I assured him that the United States, together with our Allies and partners in Europe, will support the Ukrainian people as they defend their country.  We’ll provide humanitarian relief to ease their suffering.

And in the early days of this conflict, Russian propaganda outlets will keep trying to hide the truth and claim success for its military operation against a made-up threat.

But history has shown time and again how swift gains in territory eventually give way to grinding occupations, acts of mass civil — mass civil disobedience, and strategic dead-ends.

The next few weeks and months will be hard on the people of Ukraine.  Putin has unleashed a great pain on them.  But the Ukrainian people have known 30 years of independence, and they have repeatedly shown that they will not tolerate anyone who tries to take their country backwards.

This is a dangerous moment for all of Europe, for the freedom around the world.  Putin has a — has committed an assault on the very principles that uphold global peace.

But now the entire world sees clearly what Putin and his Kremlin — and his Kremlin allies are really all about.  This was never about genuine security concerns on their part.  It was always about naked aggression, about Putin’s desire for empire by any means necessary — by bullying Russia’s neighbors through coercion and corruption, by changing borders by force, and, ultimately, by choosing a war without a cause.

Putin’s actions betray his sinister vision for the future of our world — one where nations take what they want by force.

But it is a vision that the United States and freedom-loving nations everywhere will oppose with every tool of our considerable power.

The United States and our Allies and partners will emerge from this stronger, more united, more determined, and more purposeful.

And Putin’s aggression against Ukraine will end up costing Russia dearly — economically and strategically.  We will make sure of that.  Putin will be a pariah on the international stage.  Any nation that countenances Russia’s naked aggression against Ukraine will be stained by association.

When the history of this era is written, Putin’s choice to make a totally unjustifiable war on Ukraine will have left Russia weaker and the rest of the world stronger.

Liberty, democracy, human dignity — these are the forces far more powerful than fear and oppression.  They cannot be extinguished by tyrants like Putin and his armies.  They cannot be erased by people — from people’s hearts and hopes by any amount of violence and intimidation.  They endure. 

And in the contest between democracy and autocracy, between sovereignty and subjugation, make no mistake: Freedom will prevail.

God bless the people of a free and democratic Ukraine.  And may God protect our troops.

Q    President Biden —

THE PRESIDENT:  Associated Press, Zeke.

Q    Chris Megerian.  So, do you have any plans to speak with President Putin at this point?  And what interactions have you had with the Russian government?

THE PRESIDENT:  I heard the first part: Do I have any plans to speak with Putin at this point.  And what?

Q    What communications have you had with the Kremlin as far as military (inaudible) in Ukraine and making sure this does not spiral into a larger conflict?

THE PRESIDENT:  Well, it’s a large conflict already.  The way we’re going to assure it’s not going to spiral to a larger conflict is by providing all the forces needed in the Eastern European nations that are members of NATO.  NATO is more united than it’s ever been. 

And I have no plans to talk with Putin. 

Wall Street Journal, Tarina [Tarini].

Q    Mr. President, you didn’t mention SWIFT in your sanctions that you announced.  Is there a reason why the U.S. isn’t doing that?  Is there disagreement among Allies regarding SWIFT and whether Russia should be allowed to be a part of it?

THE PRESIDENT:  The sanctions that we have proposed on all their banks is of equal consequence — maybe more consequence than SWIFT — number one. 

Number two, it is always an option.  But right now, that’s not the position that the rest of Europe wishes to take. 

Cecilia Ve- — Vega, ABC. 

Q    Thank you, sir.  Sir, sanctions clearly have not been enough to deter Vladimir Putin to this point.  What is going to stop him?  How and when does this end?  And do you see him trying to go beyond Ukraine?

And a second question I’ll just give to you now: This statement that he gave last night will — that the We- — the threat that he gave — the West “will face consequences greater than any you have faced in history.”  Is he threatening a nuclear strike?

THE PRESIDENT:  I have no idea what he’s threatening.  I know what he has done, number one. 

And number two, no one expected the sanctions to prevent anything from happening.  That has to sh- — this is going to take time.  And we have to show resolve so he knows what’s coming and so the people of Russia know what he’s brought on them.  That’s what this is all about. 

This is going to take time.  It’s not going to occur — he’s going to say, “Oh my God, these sanctions are coming.  I’m going to stand down.” 

He’s going to test the resolve of the West to see if we stay together.  And we will.  We will and it will impose significant costs on him. 

Q    Will he go beyond Ukraine, sir?  Do you see him going beyond Ukraine?

Q    Mr. President — Mr. President —

THE PRESIDENT:  (Points to reporter.)  Yes.

Q    Thank you.  Two topics, just really quick.  First, markets are down and gas prices are up.  I know you always stress the difference between Wall Street and Main Street, but everybody seems to be in for some economic pain.  How economically painful is it going to get for people in this country?

And I do have one more question. 

THE PRESIDENT:  First of all, there’s no doubt that when a major nuclear power attacks and invades another country that the world is going to respond and markets are going to respond all over the world.  So, there’s no doubt about that, number one.

Number two, the notion that this is going to last for a long time is highly unlikely, as long as we continue to stay resolved in imposing the sanctions we’re going to impose on Russia, period. 

What’s your next question?  I’m sorry.

Q    The next question is: Did you underestimate Putin?  And would you still describe him the way that you did in the summer, as a “worthy adversary”?

THE PRESIDENT:  At the time, he was — I made it clear he was an adversary, and I said he was “worthy.”  I didn’t underestimate him. 

And I’ve read most of everything he’s written.  Did you read the — I shouldn’t sa- — I’m not being a wise guy.  The — you heard the speech he made — almost an hour’s worth of speeches — why he was going into Ukraine. 

He has much larger ambitions in Ukraine.  He wants to, in fact, reestablish the former Soviet Union.  That’s what this is about. 

And I think that his — his ambitions are — are completely contrary to the place where the rest of the world has arrived.

Q    President Biden — President Biden —

Q    And — and with that — with his ambitions, you’re confident that these devastating sanctions are going to be as devastating as Russian missiles and bullets and tanks?

THE PRESIDENT:  Yes.  Russian bullets, missiles, and tanks in Ukraine.  Yes, I am.

Q    Thank you, President Biden.  If sanctions cannot stop President Putin, what penalty can?

     THE PRESIDENT:  I didn’t say sanctions couldn’t stop him.

Q    But you’ve been talking about the threat of these sanctions for several weeks now —

     THE PRESIDENT:  Yes, but the threat of the sanctions and imposing the sanctions and seeing the effect of the sanctions are two different things.

     Q    Okay, but —

     THE PRESIDENT:  They’re two different things.  And we’re now going to — he’s going to begin to see the effect of the sanctions.

Q    And what will that do — how will that change his mindset here, given he’s attacking Ukraine as we speak?

     THE PRESIDENT:  Because it will so weaken his country that he’ll have to make a very, very difficult choices of whether to continue to move toward being a second-rate power or, in fact, respond.

     Q    You said, in recent weeks, that big nations cannot bluff when it comes to something like this.  You recently said that the idea of personally sanctioning President Putin was on the table.  Is that a step that you’re prepared to take?  And if not —

     THE PRESIDENT:  It’s not a bluff; it’s on the table.

     Q    Sanctioning President Putin?

     THE PRESIDENT:  Yes.

     Q    Why not sanction him today, sir?  Why not sanction him today, sir?

Q    Mr. President —

     Q    Mr. President, if I can, you detailed some severe and swift new sanctions today and said the impact it will have over time, but given the full-scale invasion, given that you’re not pursuing disconnecting Russia from what’s called “SWIFT” — the international banking system — or other sanctions at your disposal, respectfully, sir, what more are you waiting for?

THE PRESIDENT:  Specifically, the sanctions we’ve imposed exceed SWIFT.  The sanctions we imposed exceed anything that’s ever been done.  The sanctions we imposed have generated two thirds of the world joining us.  They are profound sanctions.  Let’s have a conversation in another month or so to see if they’re working.

     Yes.

     Q    Let me ask you about — can I ask you about Zelenskyy?  Sir, you spoke to Volodymyr Zelenskyy yesterday, sir, if I could follow up —

Q    What’s the risk that we are watching the beginning of another Cold War?  And is there now a complete rupture in U.S. and Russian relations?

THE PRESIDENT:  There is a complete rupture right now in U.S.-Russian relations if they continue on this path that they’re on.

     And in terms of a Cold War, that depends.  You have the vast majority of the rest of the world in total opposition to what he’s doing — from Asia to South America to Europe to acr- — around the world. 

And so, it’s going to be a cold day for Russia.  The idea — you don’t see a whole lot of people coming to his defense.

Q    And are you — are you — if I could follow-up, sir. Are you urging China to help isolate Russia?  Are you urging China to help isolate Russia?

THE PRESIDENT:  I’m not prepared to comment on that at the moment.

     (Cross-talk by reporters.)

Q    Mr. President —

     THE PRESIDENT:  Wait.  No, no.  (Points to reporter.)  Yeah.

     No, no, no.  He’s had his hand up a long time.

     Q    Thank you, Mr. President.  How concerned are you that Putin wants to go beyond Ukraine into other countries and the U.S. will have to get involved if he moves into NATO countries?

THE PRESIDENT:  Well, if he did move into NATO countries, he will be involved — we will be involved.  The only thing that I’m convinced of is: If we don’t stop now, he’ll be emboldened.  If we don’t move against him now with these significant sanctions, he will be emboldened.

     Look, you know, every — well, anyway.

     Q    And can you talk anything more about your conversation —

     (Cross-talk by reporters.)

     THE PRESIDENT:  I’m sorry, I can’t hear you.

     Q    Sir, India, which is a major defense partner of the United States — is India with — fully with you on the issue of Ukraine and Russia?

THE PRESIDENT:  Does the Defense Department of the United States —

Q    Sir, India is one of your major defense partners.  Is India fully in sync with United States on Russia?

THE PRESIDENT:  We’re going to be — we’re in consultation with — with India today.  We haven’t resolved that completely.

     Q    One more question —

     (Cross-talk by reporters.)

     THE PRESIDENT:  Okay, thank you all very much.  Thank you.

How Russia-Ukraine conflict could influence Africa’s food supplies

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Wandile Sihlobo, Stellenbosch University

No man qualifies as a statesman who is entirely ignorant of the problems of wheat.

The words of the ancient Greek philosopher, Socrates.

Wheat and other grains are back at the heart of geopolitics following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Both countries play a major role in the global agricultural market. African leaders must pay attention.

There is significant agricultural trade between countries on the continent and Russia and Ukraine. African countries imported agricultural products worth US$4 billion from Russia in 2020. About 90% of this was wheat, and 6% was sunflower oil. Major importing countries were Egypt, which accounted for nearly half of the imports, followed by Sudan, Nigeria, Tanzania, Algeria, Kenya and South Africa.

Similarly, Ukraine exported US$2.9 billion worth of agricultural products to the African continent in 2020. About 48% of this was wheat, 31% maize, and the rest included sunflower oil, barley, and soybeans.

Russia and Ukraine are substantial players in the global commodities market. Russia produces about 10% of global wheat while Ukraine accounts for 4%. Combined, this is nearly the size of the European Union’s total wheat production. The wheat is for domestic consumption and well as export markets. Together the two countries account for a quarter of global wheat exports. In 2020 Russia accounted for 18%, and Ukraine 8%.

Both countries are also notable players in maize, responsible for a combined maize production of 4%. However, Ukraine and Russia’s contribution is even more significant in exports, accounting for 14% of global maize exports in 2020. Both countries are also among the leading producers and exporters of sunflower oil. In 2020, Ukraine’s sunflower oil exports accounted for 40% of global exports, with Russia accounting for 18% of global sunflower oil exports.

Russia’s military action has caused panic among some analysts. The fear is that intensifying conflict could disrupt trade with significant consequences for global food stability.

I share these concerns, particularly the consequences of big rises in the price of global grains and oilseed. They have been among the key drivers of global food price rises since 2020. This has been primarily because of dry weather conditions in South America and Indonesia that resulted in poor harvests combined with rising demand in China and India.

Disruption in trade, because of the invasion, in the significant producing region of the Black Sea would add to elevated global agricultural commodity prices – with potential knock on effects for global food prices. A rise in commodities prices was already evident just days into the conflict.

This is a concern for the African continent, which is a net importer of wheat and sunflower oil. On top of this there are worries about drought in some regions of the continent. Disruption to shipments of commodities would add to the general worries of food price inflation in a region that’s an importer of wheat.

What to expect

The scale of the potential upswing in the global grains and oilseed prices will depend on the magnitude of disruption and the length of time that trade will be affected.

For now, this can be viewed as an upside risk to global agricultural commodity prices, which are already elevated. In January 2022, the FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points up by 1% from December 2021 – its highest since April 2011.

Vegetable oils and dairy products mainly underpinned the increases.

In the days ahead of Russia’s move, there was a spike in the international prices of a number of commodities. These included maize (21%), wheat (35%), soybeans (20%), and sunflower oil (11%) compared to the corresponding period a year ago. This is noteworthy as 2021 prices were already elevated.

From an African agriculture perspective, the impact of the war will be felt in the near term through the global agriculture commodity prices channel.

A rise in prices will be beneficial for farmers. For grain and oilseed farmers, the surge in prices presents an opportunity for financial gains. This will be particularly welcome given higher fertiliser costs which have strained farmers’ finances.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict also comes at a time when the drought in South America and rising demand for grains and oilseeds in India and China has put pressure on prices.

But rising commodity prices are bad news for consumers who have already experienced food price rises over the past two years.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict means that pressure on prices will persist. The two countries are major contributors to global grain supplies. The impact on prices from developments affecting their output cannot be understated.

Some countries on the continent, such as South Africa, benefit from exporting fruit to Russia. In 2020 Russia accounted for 7% of South Africa’s citrus exports in value terms. And it accounted for 12% of South Africa’s apples and pears exports in the same year – the country’s second largest market.

But from Africa’s perspective, Russia and Ukraine’s agricultural imports from the continent are marginal – averaging only US$1,6 billion in the past three years. The dominant products are fruits, tobacco, coffee, and beverages in both countries.

Ripple effects

Every agricultural role-player is keeping an eye on the developments in the Black Sea region. The impact will be felt in other regions, such as the Middle East and Asia, which also import a substantial volume of grains and oilseeds from Ukraine and Russia. They too will be directly affected by the disruption in trade.

There is still a lot that’s not known about the geopolitical challenges that lie ahead. But for African countries there are reasons to be worried given their dependency for grains imports. In the near term, countries are likely see the impact through a surge in prices, rather than an actual shortage of the commodities. Other wheat exporting countries such as Canada, Australia and the US stand to benefit from any potential near term surge in demand.

Ultimately, the goal should be to deescalate the conflict. Russia and Ukraine are deeply embedded in the world’s agricultural and food markets. This is not only through supplies but also through agricultural inputs such as oil and fertiliser.

Wandile Sihlobo, Senior Fellow, Department of Agricultural Economics, Stellenbosch University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Russia invades Ukraine – 5 essential reads from experts

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Naomi Schalit, The Conversation

This is a frightening moment. Russia has invaded Ukraine, and certainly those most frightened right now are the people of Ukraine. But violent aggression – a war mounted by a country with vast military resources against a smaller, weaker country – strikes fear in all of us. As a Washington Post headline writer recently wrote: The Ukraine crisis is “5,000 miles away but hitting home.”

The Conversation U.S. has spent the past couple of months digging into the history and politics of Ukraine and Russia. We’ve looked at their cultures, their religions, their military and technological capacities. We’ve provided you with stories about NATO, about cyberwarfare, the Cold War and the efficacy of sanctions.

Below, you’ll find a selection of stories from our coverage. We hope they will help you understand that today may feel both inevitable – yet inexplicable.

1. The US promised to protect Ukraine

In 1994, Ukraine got a signed commitment from Russia, the U.S. and the U.K. in which the three countries promised to protect the newly independent state’s sovereignty.

“Ukraine as an independent state was born from the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union,” write scholars Lee Feinstein of Indiana University and Mariana Budjeryn of Harvard. “Its independence came with a complicated Cold War inheritance: the world’s third-largest stockpile of nuclear weapons. Ukraine was one of the three non-Russian former Soviet states, including Belarus and Kazakhstan, that emerged from the Soviet collapse with nuclear weapons on its territory.”

A soldier wearing a helmet peeks out of a tank.
A Ukrainian serviceman rides atop a military vehicle past Independence Square in central Kyiv on Feb. 24, 2022. Daniel Leal/AFP via Getty Images)

The 1994 agreement was signed in return for Ukraine giving up the nuclear weapons within its borders, sending them to Russia for dismantling. But the agreement, not legally binding, was broken by Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014. And today’s invasion is yet another example of the weakness of that agreement.

2. Clues to how Russia will wage war

During the opening ceremony of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, Russia invaded Georgia, a country on the Black Sea. In 2014, Putin ordered troops to seize Crimea, a peninsula that juts into the Black Sea and housed a Russian naval base.

West Point scholar and career U.S. special forces officer Liam Collins conducted field research on the 2008 and 2014 wars in Georgia and Ukraine.

“From what I have learned, I expect a possible Russian invasion would start with cyberattacks and electronic warfare to sever communications between Ukraine’s capital and the troops. Shortly thereafter, tanks and mechanized infantry formations supported by the Russian air force would cross at multiple points along the nearly 1,200-mile border, assisted by Russian special forces. Russia would seek to bypass large urban areas.”

3. Spies replaced by smartphones

If you love spy movies, you’ve got an image of how intelligence is gathered: agents on the ground and satellites in the sky.

But you’re way out of date. These days, writes Craig Nazareth, a scholar of intelligence and information operations at the University of Arizona, “massive amounts of valuable information are publicly available, and not all of it is collected by governments. Satellites and drones are much cheaper than they were even a decade ago, allowing private companies to operate them, and nearly everyone has a smartphone with advanced photo and video capabilities.”

This means people around the world may see this invasion unfold in real time. “Commercial imaging companies are posting up-to-the-minute, geographically precise images of Russia’s military forces. Several news agencies are regularly monitoring and reporting on the situation. TikTok users are posting video of Russian military equipment on rail cars allegedly on their way to augment forces already in position around Ukraine. And internet sleuths are tracking this flow of information.”

A rocket is stuck coming through the ceiling of a damaged apartment with rubble around it.
The body of a rocket stuck in a flat after recent shelling on the northern outskirts of Kharkiv, Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. Sergey Bobok/AFP via Getty Images

4. Targeting the US with cyberattacks

As Russia edged closer to war with Ukraine, cybersecurity scholar Justin Pelletier at Rochester Institute of Technology wrote of the growing likelihood of destructive Russian cyberattacks against the U.S.

Pelletier quoted a Department of Homeland Security bulletin from late January that said, “We assess that Russia would consider initiating a cyberattack against the Homeland if it perceived a U.S. or NATO response to a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine threatened its long-term national security.”

And that’s not all. “Americans can probably expect to see Russian-sponsored cyber-activities working in tandem with propaganda campaigns,” writes Pelletier. The aim of such campaigns: to use “social and other online media like a military-grade fog machine that confuses the U.S. population and encourages mistrust in the strength and validity of the U.S. government.”

5. Will war sink Putin’s stock with Russians?

“War ultimately requires an enormous amount of public goodwill and support for a political leader,” writes Arik Burakovsky, a scholar of Russia and public opinion at Tufts University’s Fletcher School.

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Putin’s support among Russians has been rising as the country massed troops along the Ukrainian border – the public believes that its leaders are defending Russia by standing up to the West. But Burakovsky writes that “the rally ‘round the flag effect of supporting political leadership during an international crisis will likely be short-lived.”

Most Russians, it turns out, don’t want war. The return of body bags from the front could well prove damaging to Putin domestically.

Editor’s note: This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives.

Want to learn more? Here’s an even bigger collection of our coverage of the crisis in Ukraine.

Naomi Schalit, Senior Editor, Politics + Society, The Conversation

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Life in the Lap of Luxury: Chairman of Parliament, Other Members and Staff Charged Personal Travel Expenses to the Taxpayers

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Somaliland’s new Parliament was elected amid fervor and a permeating atmosphere of hope that it will hold the Executive Branch’s feet to the fire and finally put an end to the revolving door of political expediency and corruption that has become the norm in Somaliland’s government. The fact that most of the new Members of Parliament are young and fairly educated with the bonus of the ruling party of Kulmiye losing to the opposition party has reinforced the notion that major changes were coming. Prayers finally answered and saviors finally represent the people are in office. Unfortunately, this is not the case, and the new members of parliament staff and especially the Speaker, Hon. Abdirasak Khalif has been using the public coffers t cover their personal expenses, including extended paid vacations on the taxpayer dime.

Members of Parliament are the highest-paid public officials and command salaries that are higher or equivalent to cabinet ministers but have been charging the public for their most basic personal expenses, including personal travel. This has continued in the current parliament, led by Hon. Abdirasak Khalif.

Two months after winning the leadership of the newly elected parliament, the Chairman, Hon. Abdirasak Khalif went to Turkey for 28 days from October 4th to November 2nd, 2021 at the cost of 115,685,000.00 Somaliland Shillings or 13,451.74 US dollars, which comes to 480 US dollars a day. Parliamentary records state that Chairman Khalif was taking part in a conference taking place at the Turkish Parliament.

Only a month later, Chairman Khalif went to Turkey again for 34 days from December 1st, 2021 to January 3rd, 2022 99,441,000 Somaliland Shillings or 11,562.90 US dollars, which comes to 340 US dollars a day. Once again, the official reason for the Chairman’s visit to Turkey was to attend an unspecified conference in Turkey. This is according to congressional records examined by Somaliland Chronicle.

Multiple sources familiar with the Chairman’s trips to Turkey have confirmed the personal nature of his visit and that aside from addressing a gathering of Somaliland diaspora in Ankara on October 30th, 2021 there were no official business or conferences taking place in the Turkish Parliament that Chairman Khalif has attended and other sources have confirmed that Chairman Khalif’s family has lived in Turkey years before taking the top post of Somaliland Parliament.

Although Chairman Khalif’s election of Hon. Khalif as the Chairman of the new parliament was seen as a major win for the opposition parties, he has since moderated his rhetoric and in a speech at a banquet held by President Bihi declared that the parliament is under the command of the President and squarely falls under leadership. On the legislative agenda, the new Parliament has approved the 2022 budget with superficial changes and has passed all executive-level positions nominated by President Bihi since the election of the new parliament.

Leadership of the new Parliament is congratulated by President Bihi

As we previously reported, it has been a common practice that many government officials including ministers have their personal expenses such as housing and what are clearly personal trips overseas covered by the government. This includes the previous Chairman of the Parliament and the Chairman of the house of elders whose travels as well as all domestic expenses were paid with public funds.

It is unclear why the Speaker of the parliament, Hon. Abdirasak Khalif who commands a monthly salary of 5,445.29 US dollars and is said to be personally well off has chosen to use public funds to travel to Turkey twice for personal matters.

Amid catastrophic droughts that are ravaging Somaliland, the Parliament has taken a two-month recess which has prompted many staffers and legislators to travel to many parts of the world and as far as Kuala Lumpur for what is vaguely termed as recognition efforts and much like Chairman Khalif, all expenses in the tens of thousands of dollars are being footed by the public.

Although there is a commendable effort by some legislators to publicly grill government officials on television, some legislators privately complain of the parliament’s lack of organizational capacity to gather, analyze and formulate effective oversight and the leadership’s desire to minimize conflict with the executive branch.

In Somaliland, where many government employees, including military and law enforcement personnel, are severely underpaid, it is unclear if the lavish living expenses of some high-ranking officials are part of their compensation packages and if so, why these expense records are falsely categorized as official business.

Efforts to reach the Chairman of the Parliament Hon. Abdirasak Khalif for comments were unsuccessful.