Investigative Reports

Security Reform vs. Security Risk: Weighing the Implications of Somaliland’s Military Biometric System

Key Points Somaliland's biometric registration of security personnel aims to...

The Diplomacy of Gullibility: How Somaliland’s Foreign Ministry Keeps Falling for International Fraudsters

In what has become a familiar scene in Somaliland's...

Ex-US Ambassador to Somalia Lobbies for Hormuud’s Access to American Banking System

Questions mount as André partners with Somali MP who...
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Regional Chairman of Somaliland National Election Commission Shot Dead in Las Anod

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According to preliminary reports from Las Anod, the regional capital of the Sool region of the Republic of Somaliland indicate that the Sool Regional Chairman of the National Election Commission Mr. Abdilahi Laba-go’le was shot dead by unknown assailants.

Multiple government and law enforcement sources stated that the incident is under investigation and no suspects have been identified.

In May last year, the regional commander of Somaliland Intelligence, Mr. Abdiqani Guhad Hassan, and the Sool Regional Court Chairman Mr. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud were assassinated in Las Anod, more than a year later their cases remain under investigation.

In a short statement, Somaliland National Election Commission has sent its condolences to the deceased official’s family.

Critical Medical Equipment Stolen from Erigavo Regional Hospital

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According to a statement by Mr. Mohamed Sidik Dhamme, a senior member of Waddani opposition party, the Erigavo Regional Hospital’s Complete Blood Work or CBC analysis equipment was stolen and sold in Garowe, the regional capital of the neighboring Puntland province of Somalia. Mr. Dhamme has attributed the theft of this machine to widespread corruption and negligence and stated that the Ministry of Health Development has not publicly disclosed the theft of this critical equipment from the hospital.

Mr. Dhamme stated that patients from Erigavo and four other districts in Sanag region are forced to use costly private facilities since the theft of the publicly-owned equipment from the regional hospital. He adds that the hospital’s service delivery has declined, and it is part of the overall pattern of decline in public hospitals but Erigavo is particularly affected by widespread corruption that includes the theft of oxygen cylinders intended for COVID-19 patients.

In response to Mr. Dhamme’s press conference, the regional health officials including the Regional Health Coordinator Dr. Hassan Ahmed Salah and the Director of the Erigavo Regional Hospital Mr. Farah Abdillahi Yusuf spoke to the media have downplayed the cost of the equipment and the significance of the stolen complete blood work analysis equipment and added that it was quickly replaced by the Ministry of Health Development.

The officials who seemed annoyed by the disclosure of the theft of the equipment took particular issue with Mr. Dhamme’s assertion that it was sold in Garowe and called on authorities to treat him as a witness as he may have additional information related to the case. Officials did not state if the theft of the equipment would result in disciplinary action for other officials beyond those currently in custody.

The government officials who spoke to the press stated that multiple individuals are in custody and the case is under investigation by the Police Criminal Investigation Department and that they did not want to give details while the incident was under investigation.

Government records from the Ministry of Health Development seen by Somaliland Chronicle show two transactions totaling 75 million Somaliland Shilling or 8,823 US dollars were approved late last month for unspecified medical lab equipment for Erigavo Regional Hospital. It is unclear if these transactions are directly related to the stolen Complete Blood Work or CBC analysis equipment.

PayeeDateSL ShillingUS Dollars
Human Care Diagnostic22-Jun-2139,560,000.00 $     4,654.12
Tasnim Medical Diagnostic28-Jun-2135,440,000.00 $     4,169.41
Total75,000,000.00 $     8,823.53

Ministry of Health Development, its regional officials, and the hospital have not disclosed the theft of this critical equipment before Mr. Dhamme’s press conference. Efforts to reach the Ministry of Health Development for details on this incident and if similar theft has occurred in the past were unsuccessful.

“Neuroprosthesis” Restores Words to Man with Paralysis

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Technology Could Lead to More Natural Communication for People Who Have Suffered Speech Loss

By Robin Marks

Researchers at UC San Francisco have successfully developed a “speech neuroprosthesis” that has enabled a man with severe paralysis to communicate in sentences, translating signals from his brain to the vocal tract directly into words that appear as text on a screen.

The achievement, which was developed in collaboration with the first participant of a clinical research trial, builds on more than a decade of effort by UCSF neurosurgeon Edward Chang, MD, to develop a technology that allows people with paralysis to communicate even if they are unable to speak on their own. The study appears July 15 in the New England Journal of Medicine.

Eddie Chang reflected in a screen showing activity in the brain during surgery
Eddie Chang performing brain surgery. Photo by Barbara Ries

“To our knowledge, this is the first successful demonstration of direct decoding of full words from the brain activity of someone who is paralyzed and cannot speak,” said Chang, the Joan and Sanford Weill Chair of Neurological Surgery at UCSF, Jeanne Robertson Distinguished Professor, and senior author on the study. “It shows strong promise to restore communication by tapping into the brain’s natural speech machinery.”

Each year, thousands of people lose the ability to speak due to stroke, accident, or disease. With further development, the approach described in this study could one day enable these people to fully communicate.

Translating Brain Signals into Speech

Previously, work in the field of communication neuroprosthetics has focused on restoring communication through spelling-based approaches to type out letters one-by-one in text. Chang’s study differs from these efforts in a critical way: his team is translating signals intended to control muscles of the vocal system for speaking words, rather than signals to move the arm or hand to enable typing. Chang said this approach taps into the natural and fluid aspects of speech and promises more rapid and organic communication.

“With speech, we normally communicate information at a very high rate, up to 150 or 200 words per minute,” he said, noting that spelling-based approaches using typing, writing, and controlling a cursor are considerably slower and more laborious. “Going straight to words, as we’re doing here, has great advantages because it’s closer to how we normally speak.”

An example of neuroprosthesis with wires sticking out of its end next to the words hello vs h with a blinking cursor

Over the past decade, Chang’s progress toward this goal was facilitated by patients at the UCSF Epilepsy Center who were undergoing neurosurgery to pinpoint the origins of their seizures using electrode arrays placed on the surface of their brains. These patients, all of whom had normal speech, volunteered to have their brain recordings analyzed for speech-related activity. Early success with these patient volunteers paved the way for the current trial in people with paralysis.

Previously, Chang and colleagues in the UCSF Weill Institute for Neurosciences mapped the cortical activity patterns associated with vocal tract movements that produce each consonant and vowel. To translate those findings into speech recognition of full words, David Moses, PhD, a postdoctoral engineer in the Chang lab and one of the lead authors of the new study, developed new methods for real-time decoding of those patterns and statistical language models to improve accuracy.

But their success in decoding speech in participants who were able to speak didn’t guarantee that the technology would work in a person whose vocal tract is paralyzed. “Our models needed to learn the mapping between complex brain activity patterns and intended speech,” said Moses. “That poses a major challenge when the participant can’t speak.”

In addition, the team didn’t know whether brain signals controlling the vocal tract would still be intact for people who haven’t been able to move their vocal muscles for many years. “The best way to find out whether this could work was to try it,” said Moses.

The First 50 Words

To investigate the potential of this technology in patients with paralysis, Chang partnered with colleague Karunesh Ganguly, MD, PhD, an associate professor of neurology, to launch a study known as “BRAVO” (Brain-Computer Interface Restoration of Arm and Voice). The first participant in the trial is a man in his late 30s who suffered a devastating brainstem stroke more than 15 years ago that severely damaged the connection between his brain and his vocal tract and limbs. Since his injury, he has had extremely limited head, neck, and limb movements, and communicates by using a pointer attached to a baseball cap to poke letters on a screen.https://www.youtube.com/embed/_GMcf1fXdW8?autoplay=0&start=0&rel=0

The participant, who asked to be referred to as BRAVO1, worked with the researchers to create a 50-word vocabulary that Chang’s team could recognize from brain activity using advanced computer algorithms. The vocabulary – which includes words such as “water,” “family,” and “good” – was sufficient to create hundreds of sentences expressing concepts applicable to BRAVO1’s daily life.

For the study, Chang surgically implanted a high-density electrode array over BRAVO1’s speech motor cortex. After the participant’s full recovery, his team recorded 22 hours of neural activity in this brain region over 48 sessions and several months. In each session, BRAVO1 attempted to say each of the 50 vocabulary words many times while the electrodes recorded brain signals from his speech cortex.

Translating Attempted Speech into Text

To translate the patterns of recorded neural activity into specific intended words, the other two lead authors of the study, Sean Metzger, MS and Jessie Liu, BS, both of the UCSF-UC Berkeley Joint PhD Program in Bioengineering, used custom neural network models, which are forms of artificial intelligence. When the participant attempted to speak, these networks distinguished subtle patterns in brain activity to detect speech attempts and identify which words he was trying to say.

To test their approach, the team first presented BRAVO1 with short sentences constructed from the 50 vocabulary words and asked him to try saying them several times. As he made his attempts, the words were decoded from his brain activity, one by one, on a screen.

Then the team switched to prompting him with questions such as “How are you today?” and “Would you like some water?” As before, BRAVO1’s attempted speech appeared on the screen. “I am very good,” and “No, I am not thirsty.”

The team found that the system was able to decode words from brain activity at rate of up to 18 words per minute with up to 93 percent accuracy (75 percent median). Contributing to the success was a language model Moses applied that implemented an “auto-correct” function, similar to what is used by consumer texting and speech recognition software.

Moses characterized the early trial results as a proof of principle. “We were thrilled to see the accurate decoding of a variety of meaningful sentences,” he said. “We’ve shown that it is actually possible to facilitate communication in this way and that it has potential for use in conversational settings.”

Three researchers who participated in the Bravo study side by side
Jessie Liu, BS, David Moses, PhD, and Sean Metzger, MS.

Looking forward, Chang and Moses said they will expand the trial to include more participants affected by severe paralysis and communication deficits. The team is currently working to increase the number of words in the available vocabulary, as well as improve the rate of speech.

Both said that while the study focused on a single participant and a limited vocabulary, those limitations don’t diminish the accomplishment. “This is an important technological milestone for a person who cannot communicate naturally,” said Moses, “and it demonstrates the potential for this approach to give a voice to people with severe paralysis and speech loss.”

Authors: The full author list is David A. Moses, PhD*; Sean L. Metzger, MS*; Jessie R. Liu, BS*; Gopala K. Anumanchipalli, PhD; Joseph G. Makin, PhD; Pengfei F. Sun, PhD; Josh Chartier, PhD; Maximilian E. Dougherty, BA; Patricia M. Liu, MA; Gary M. Abrams, MD; Adelyn Tu-Chan, DO; Karunesh Ganguly, MD, PhD; and Edward F. Chang, MD, all of UCSF. Funding sources included National Institutes of Health (U01 NS098971-01), philanthropy, and a sponsored research agreement with Facebook Reality Labs (FRL), which completed in early 2021. * Denotes equal contribution.

Funding: Supported by a research contract under Facebook’s Sponsored Academic Research Agreement, the National Institutes of Health (grant NIH U01 DC018671-01A1), Joan and Sandy Weill and the Weill Family Foundation, the Bill and Susan Oberndorf Foundation, the William K. Bowes, Jr. Foundation, and the Shurl and Kay Curci Foundation. UCSF researchers conducted all clinical trial design, execution, data analysis and reporting. Research participant data were collected solely by UCSF, are held confidentially, and are not shared with third parties. FRL provided high-level feedback and machine learning advice.

About UCSF: The University of California, San Francisco (UCSF) is exclusively focused on the health sciences and is dedicated to promoting health worldwide through advanced biomedical research, graduate-level education in the life sciences and health professions, and excellence in patient care. UCSF Health, which serves as UCSF’s primary academic medical center, includes top-ranked specialty hospitals and other clinical programs, and has affiliations throughout the Bay Area. UCSF School of Medicine also has a regional campus in Fresno. Learn more at ucsf.edu or see our Fact Sheet.

Minister of Water Resources Development Suspends The Director General For Corruption

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In a letter circulated on social media, the Minister of Water Resources Development Hon. Mohamed Muse Diriye Wacays has suspended the Director-General Mr. Mohamed Hassan Dirrir alleged infractions that include corruption and dereliction of duties.

The Minister’s suspension letter accuses the Director-General that work has ground to a halt on his watch and that correspondence and email communication were unanswered. The most serious allegation in the suspension letter states that Mr. Dirrir, the suspended DG has created fake stamps. The purpose of the stamps and what the Director-General used them for is not stated in the letter.

Although turnover is longer under President Bihi in cabinet and other appointed positions, the Director-General, Mr. Mohamed Hassan Dirrir was appointed by the President in October 2020 where the Minister Hon. Mohamed Muse Diriye Wacays was transferred from the Ministry of Information and National Guidance to the Ministry of Water Resources Development on December 2nd, 2019, where he held since President Bihi took office in November 2017. 

Minister Mohamed Muse Diriye Wacays was the Deputy Minister for Interior in charge of security in former President Silanyo’s government.

The Ministry of Water Resources Development has been one of the least effective portfolios in making any difference in the lives of the people of Somaliland and particularly rural communities where water scarcity and repeated droughts have decimated valuable livestock. Municipal water agencies are independent of the Ministry of Water Resources.

Sources at the Ministry of Water Development who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal, accuse the leadership specifically the Minister of widespread corruption and cite a specific case where Minister Diriye halted the construction of a dam funded by an Aid agency in the Eastern region of Sool until the implementing company made a direct tribute to him. Somaliland Chronicle cannot substantiate this claim.

In addition, the Minister was accused of employing his son in the multi-million dollar Water Infrastructure Development Program for Building Resilience in Somaliland project funded by the African Development Bank and implemented by Care International as Assistant Project Manager within a month of being transferred to the Ministry of Water Resources Development.

There are other red flags as well. According to financial records reviewed by Somaliland Chronicle, under Minister Diriye, the Ministry of Water Development Resources spent 43,737.21 US Dollars on banquets for traditional elders. Some of these records show the banquets were hosted by the Minister and the Director-General.

Year/MonthDescriptionEstablishmentAmount in SL SHAmount in US Dollars
2020-04MarMartiqaad Qado Sharaf oo wasiirka W.H.Biyaha uu u  fidiyay Madax dhaqameed reer T/dheer ahGolis restaurant Burco 10,625,000.00 $    1,250.00
2020-04Martiqaad Qado Sharaf oo wasiirka W.H.Biyaha uu u  fidiyay Madax dhaqameed reer Somaliland ah
Baraar Hotel7,369,500.00 $        867.00
2020-04Martiqaad Qado Sharaf oo wasiirka W.H.Biyaha uu u  fidiyay Madax dhaqameed reer Somaliland ah
Summer TIme6,800,000.00 $        800.00
2020-05Martiqaad Qado Sharaf oo wasiirka W.H.Biyaha uu u  fidiyay Madax dhaqameed reer Somaliland ahFish Steak Restaurant30,082,800.00 $    3,539.15
2020-06Martiqaad Qado Sharaf oo wasiirka W.H.Biyaha uu u  fidiyay Madax dhaqameed reer Somaliland ah Summer TIme29,112,500.00 $    3,425.00
2020-08Martiqaad Casuumad ah oo ay Wasaaradda Horumarinta Biyaha u fidisay Marti sharaf ka socotay jaamacada maqale ee itoobiya
Hido Dhawr22,482,500.00 $    2,645.00
2020-09Martiqaad Qado Sharaf oo Wasiirka iyo Agaasimeha Guud W.H.Biyaha uu u  fidiyay Madax dhaqameed reer Somaliland ah Sida Ku cad
Qaansheegata No.132   – 18/10/2020
GR. No. 0633093- 08/09/2020
Dalabka Ref:MOWD/03/288/2020 – 09/09/2020
Fish Steak Restaurant50,000,000.00 $    5,882.35
2020-10Martiqaad Qado Sharaf oo Wasiirka iyo Agaasimeha Guud W.H.Biyaha uu u  fidiyay Madax dhaqameed reer Somaliland ahFish Steak Restaurant50,000,000.00 $    5,882.35
2020-11Martiqaad Qado Sharaf oo Wasiirka iyo Agaasimeha Guud W.H.Biyaha uu u  fidiyay Madax dhaqameed reer Somaliland ahFish Steak Restaurant50,000,000.00 $    5,882.35
2021-07Martiqaad Qado Sharaf Wasiirka W.H.Biyaha uu u  fidiyay Madax dhaqameed reer Somaliland ah iyo Marti Sharaf kaladuwan Fish Steak Restaurant72,000,000.00 $    8,470.59
2021-07Martiqaad Qado Sharaf oo wasiirka W.H.Biyaha uu u  fidiyay Madax dhaqameed reer Somaliland ah

Baraar Hotel43,293,962.00 $    5,093.41
   371,766,262.00 $  43,737.21

In addition, the Ministry spent whopping $62,000 US dollars on local travel expenses for Minister Diriye and his entourage between March 2020 and April 2021. In 2019, the Ministry spent nearly half that amount on local travel expenses.

It is unclear what actions Somaliland Auditor General would take or if the Minister’s letter will trigger an audit of the Ministry’s finances. Although few officials have lost their jobs on corruption allegations, prosecutions on corruption charges against government officials in Somaliland are rare.

Minister Diriye’s predecessor at the Ministry of Water Resources Development Hon. Saleban Yusuf Ali Koore, the current Minister of Information and National Guidance has faced similar allegations of corruption and has also suspended the Director-General on insubordination and other transgressions few months before he and Minister Diriye were swapped.

Attempts to reach Minister Diriye and Director General Dirrir for comments were unsuccessful.

Breaking – Major Cabinet Reshuffle Imminent

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According to sources, the President of the Republic of Somaliland HE Muse Bihi Abdi has completed a major reshuffle of his government. Sources add the changes will be announced after the ongoing contest for the Speaker of the Parliament between Kulmiye and Opposition parties is settled.

Although President Bihi has made changes to his government several times, some of his cabinet members and other presidential appointees are holdovers from the previous government of President Ahmed Mohamoud Silanyo.

Many positions remain unfilled whose incumbents resigned to run for Parliament or local council seats this includes the Foreign Affairs portfolio which has been vacant since early March when Former Minister of Foreign Affairs Mr. Yasin Hagi Mohamoud Hiir (Faratoon) resigned. He has since won a seat in the upcoming Parliament where he is seeking the Speakership position.

Sources state that President Bihi has been successful in keeping government changes under wraps may take a cue from the recent voter sentiment where opposition parties have outperformed the ruling party of Kulmiye and swept in Mayor Abdikarim Ahmed Moge and the new member of Parliament Mr. Barkhad Batun and may seek out similarly influential politicians.

Members of President Bihi’s cabinet who spoke on background confirmed the expected reshuffle. The Office of the President has denied that any government reshuffle is forthcoming and dismissed the reshuffle as mere rumors.

Djibouti needs a Plan B for the post-Guelleh era

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After Ethiopia and Eritrea fell out in 1998, Djibouti’s ports became landlocked Ethiopia’s only outlet and a critical lifeline for exports and imports to meet its energy and food security needs, turning the tiny country into the Horn of Africa’s (HoA) dominant transshipment hub. In the early 2000s, Djibouti turned its geostrategic location at the entrance of the Red Sea, bridging the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), East Africa, and key maritime trading routes to Europe, into a cash cow, renting space to competing superpowers to host their military bases. This gave rise to a booming local service sector dominated by shipping, freight, and telecoms. Djibouti’s port handles 95% of inbound and outbound trade from Ethiopia, earning more than $1 billion in port fees per year from Ethiopia alone. This makes Djibouti the dominant port service provider in the HoA and a major player in the Red Sea.

However, it is not without competition, and Somaliland’s port of Berbera and the Berbera Corridor connecting to the hinterland of Ethiopia has emerged as a serious potential rival, making it the most valuable real estate in the region. Despite being not internationally recognized, the Somaliland government has capitalized on its geostrategic location, striking lucrative deals with DP World, which invested more than $442 million, and Transfigura, which invested an undisclosed amount to supply oil and gas, including in port infrastructure, to tap into Ethiopia’s growing hydrocarbon demand, increasing by over 9% per year. This has made Berbera port an alternative fuel supply source for cargo ships passing through the Suez Canal and a potential rival transshipment hub. This threatens Djibouti’s services sector, which is driven by shipping and freight logistics to Ethiopia, accounting for 76% of its GDP. Moreover, to the south of Ethiopia, the newly completed Lamu Port in Kenya and the Lamu-Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) regional interconnection project, which would serve the hinterlands of Kenya, South Sudan, Uganda, and Ethiopia, is expected to reduce Djibouti’s share of Ethiopian cargo by 10-15%, according to a World Bank report. Combined with the possibility that Berbera port could capture 30% of Ethiopia’s cargo volume, this would likely devastate Djibouti’s economy.

In addition, Djibouti depends heavily on electricity imports from Ethiopia, which account for up to 70% of its supply, and this dependency creates an energy security risk for its economy as well. In May 2019 the Ethiopian government stopped exporting electricity to Djibouti and Sudan after the water level in the Gibe 3 Dam dropped, forcing Ethiopia to ration its domestic electricity use to manage local energy demand. As a water-scarce country, Djibouti also heavily depends on importing water from Ethiopia — up to 104,000 cubic meters. The country faces a host of pressing challenges — climate change, water and energy security, the trade deficit, and high levels of debt — that are a clear and present danger to its future. This is why Djibouti needs a Plan B for what comes next after the presidency of its long-time leader, Ismail Omar Guelleh, in power since 1999.

Ethiopia’s leverage

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, Ethiopian leader Meles Zenawi developed “hydropower diplomacy” based on a build dam first and negotiate later approach — not unlike shoot first and ask questions later — taking advantage of Somalia’s weak government that was still recovering from the Ethiopian invasion and Kenya’s political passivity and “good neighborhood” conduct. In an effort to expand Ethiopia’s power and influence in the HoA, Zenawi pursued an aggressive geoeconomic strategy, building dams to generate electricity with an eye to exporting it to neighboring countries, among them Djibouti, to earn steady revenues and gain leverage over downstream users’ energy and water security. In 2011, Djibouti, a net energy importer, linked up with Ethiopia’s electricity grid, importing 60 MW to reduce its high energy costs and reliance on fossil fuel imports. But the cheap electricity from Ethiopia carried through a transmission line came with a caveat: The power purchase agreement between Djibouti and Ethiopia is on a “best-effort basis,” which means Ethiopia only exports electricity to Djibouti when the dams generate a surplus, making it unreliable and ultimately unsustainable.

Djibouti’s poor electricity infrastructure has improved since the days of Guelleh’s predecessors, and the current electricity access rate is around 61% with per capita electricity consumption of around 330 kWh, almost two to three times higher than Kenya and Ethiopia. However, the unit electricity cost is close to $0.35/kWh, almost the same as Mogadishu and nearly twice as expensive as Kenya. This high electricity cost is due to the unreliable and intermittent power supply from Ethiopia, a lack of oil refineries, aging power generators with high maintenance costs, and dependence on imported fossil fuels (which account for around 30% of supply).

Djibouti’s decision to integrate its electricity grid into Ethiopia’s unreliable hydropower national grid comes with significant risks, as climate change frequently impacts the dams’ water levels, exacerbating the country’s existing energy shortfalls and forcing Ethiopia to ration its domestic energy supply and halt electricity exports to its neighbors. Ethiopia’s hydropower unreliability also affected the efficiency of the Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway (ADR) link; it was originally designed to reduce travel time from three days to 12 hours and run three freight trains per day, but because of repeated power interruptions neither the travel time, nor the number of freight trains, nor the revenues have been realized to date. During the ADR project bidding, all the contractors, both American and Chinese, initially submitted tenders for a diesel-fueled railway system that was efficient and less costly. However, the Ethiopian government insisted on electrifying the railway with clean energy from hydropower to be environmentally friendly, which not only increased the project cost but also caused delays, forcing both Ethiopia and Djibouti to incur project payments while the railway was not in service.

Similar problems have also affected water projects. The Ethiopia-Djibouti water pipeline project, which carries water from Adigala town in Ethiopia via the rugged terrain of eastern Ethiopia, was intended to supply 100,000 cubic meters of water per day to three major cities in Djibouti and the capital, but this too was hindered by power shortages. All of these issues eventually came to a head. Djibouti’s failure to take into consideration the risks associated with its cross-border energy interconnection with Ethiopia and Addis Ababa’s leverage over its energy and water security, as well as its loss of millions of dollars in revenues from the ADR line, the hydropower grid connection, and the transboundary water project, even while paying millions of dollars in debt service on these three projects, forced Djibouti to restructure its debt for the first time.
 

Chinese People's Liberation Army personnel attending the opening ceremony of China's new military base in Djibouti on August 1, 2017. (Photo by STR/AFP via Getty Images)
Chinese People’s Liberation Army personnel attending the opening ceremony of China’s new military base in Djibouti on August 1, 2017. (Photo by STR/AFP via Getty Images)

China’s Belt and Road Initiative and concerns over development exploitation

China has a geostrategic and geoeconomic interest in Djibouti to protect its maritime trade routes, and thus its energy security, and to gain geopolitical influence in the HoA, MENA, and Asia. In addition, given China’s new military base in Djibouti, the country’s ports give its naval forces an advantage, aiding Beijing’s efforts, through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Maritime Silk Road (MSR), to dominate global maritime trade through chokepoints connecting the Gulf of Aden and the Suez Canal.

China’s geostrategic interest in Djibouti comes with dividends, including access to Djibouti’s ocean resources — the so-called blue economy. Despite China’s claims that it uses its military base to escort its maritime trade cargo to protect its ships from terrorism and piracy, China’s illegal fishing and illicit activities in the Djibouti sea are well documented. Worse, China has not signed the Port State Measures Agreement (PSMA), an international agreement targeting illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing. In effect, this gives it unconstrained access to exploit Djibouti’s scarce fishing resources.

China is also pursuing the telecom sector in Europe using Djibouti as a gateway, building the Pakistan and East Africa Connecting Europe (PEACE) fiber-optic cable, which will use Huawei 5G technology. This threatens the existing Djibouti DARE1 fiber-optic cable project and future expansion of its telecom sector targeting South-South economic development.

According to the America Enterprise Institute Global Chinese Investment Tracker, China has invested $24 billion in Ethiopia, mainly in the infrastructure and power sectors, from 2005 to 2020, compared to $1.7 billion in Djibouti. Thus, it seems Djibouti has failed to capitalize on its geostrategic and economic importance from an investment and job creation perspective. This was perhaps most evident when China North Industries Group (Norinco) allowed Ethiopia’s state-owned Metals and Engineering Technology Company (METEC) to assemble all of the rolling stock (railroad wagons) for the ADR line in Ethiopia, including the Djibouti segments, meaning Djibouti citizens lost out on the associated technology transfer and employment opportunities.

Despite being a minority owner of the ADR line, Djibouti failed to assess and monitor the risks and substantial hidden costs of the project, including those stemming from ethnic conflicts along the Ethiopia segment, railway theft, and railway blockades due to local grievances, especially by those who lost their livestock as a result of train collisions. The latter was a particular problem in a large, unfenced segment of the line within Ethiopia as the Ethiopian Railway Cooperation (ERC) prioritized delivery speed, mainly driven by Chinese contractors’ incentives, to save on project costs. This created constraints such as reduced speed and operational problems with the ADR line in Ethiopia and Djibouti, including project delays.

Unsustainable rentier economics

While Djibouti benefits from its geostrategic location, its natural resources, such as mineral salts and gypsum, are trivial. It is a rentier state with an economy overwhelmingly focused on services; non-tradable goods account for 89% of GDP, depriving Djibouti of the ability to pursue import substitution and forge a sustainable path to industrialization. Its rentier economy faces many challenges to sustainability due to regional geopolitical dynamics and superpower competition; for starters, it will likely continue to rely on its foreign military bases as a major source of income for the foreseeable future. They currently earn it around $300 million annually for hosting facilities from countries as varied as the U.S., China, France, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Japan, among others. However, China owns 70% of Djibouti’s debt, 23.5% of Port of Djibouti, and is the financier of the majority of the country’s infrastructure. Ethiopia has plans that may call all of this into question though. Currently central to Djibouti’s GDP, Ethiopia is now reducing its dependency on Djibouti’s ports and has been planning since 2010 to shift 30% of its cargo to Somaliland’s Berbera port.

Only 0.04% of Djibouti is arable land, and as such, the country relies heavily on imported food. Despite having the highest GDP per capita in the HoA of $3,415 and robust GDP growth, Djibouti faces considerable economic problems: pervasive high unemployment of above 60%, poverty of around 70%, an unsustainable debt burden, limited progress, and a lack of job opportunities, social welfare investment, and a sustainable strategy to diversify its economy.

While giving an interview to The Washington Post, Djibouti Foreign Minister Mahamoud Ali Youssouf said without any remorse, “Yes, our debt to China is 71% of our GDP, but we needed that infrastructure.” It’s understandable that cash-strapped Djibouti has no choice to but seek Chinese soft loans to invest in infrastructure that has a positive economic impact, but this has also burdened the country with considerable debt. Djibouti politicians and elites seem to believe that the bilateral relationship with Beijing and Chinese investment will turn their country into “the Singapore of Africa.” The reality on the ground is far different, but to be hopeful and have ambition is better than having no vision at all. Djibouti government officials make matters worse, however, by refusing to admit the true extent of the challenges facing the local economy. They use a scapegoating strategy to counter international criticism and avoid admitting that 60% of service sector revenue, led by the telecom sector, is generated by Djibouti state-owned enterprises (SOEs) due to their monopoly status. Prices are higher than other regional markets as a result of the lack of competition, and this discourages both the private sector and foreign direct investment.
 

A giant campaign banner advertising the candidacy of Djibouti President Ismael Omar Guelleh overlooks the busy main market on the eve of national elections in the capital Djibouti on April 8, 2021. (Photo by TONY KARUMBA/AFP via Getty Images)
A giant campaign banner advertising the candidacy of Djibouti President Ismael Omar Guelleh overlooks the busy main market on the eve of national elections in the capital Djibouti on April 8, 2021. (Photo by TONY KARUMBA/AFP via Getty Images)

Life after Guelleh

Guelleh became the country’s leader in 1999, replacing his uncle, who hand-picked him to serve as his successor. The transition couldn’t have come a better time: almost one year after the Eritrea-Ethiopia war broke out, as Ethiopia shifted its import and export trade through Djibouti ports, saving the devastated local economy that was recovering from the Djiboutian civil war between the Afar and Issa tribes. At the time, Djibouti also saw an influx of refugees fleeing from Somalia, overwhelming the country; perhaps this motivated Guelleh to initiate the first Somali peace national conference in 1999, bringing all the warring parties together. Guelleh thus played a crucial role in making lasting peace in Somalia, which led to the formation of the Somalia Transitional National Government in 2000.

In 2001 at the start of the war on terror, the U.S. military set up a base in Djibouti as the first major superpower tenant, paying $63 million annually; combined with revenue from France’s military base, this enabled Djibouti to stabilize its economy, with the rent base accounting for 18% of its GDP. Under Guelleh, Djibouti appealed to the international community to invest its infrastructure and partner from a geoeconomic perspective as well, as opposed to just a geostrategic one. This created an opportunity for China to engage Djibouti with soft power by building hospitals, government buildings, and providing aid, totaling $16.6 million. With no other countries coming to help or to invest, Guelleh chose to mortgage Djibouti’s assets to finance its infrastructure development, including the telecom and power sectors. With Ethiopia’s population increasing, and thus too its need for imports to meet the demand for food and energy, and Djibouti the only outlet, the country’s GDP growth increased from -3.4% in 1998 to 5.4% in 2008. Under President Xi Jinping from 2012 to 2020, China ramped up its investments as part of the MSR and BRI, including funding the Djibouti industrial park zone and gas projects.

Although living standards improved and Djibouti developed into the HoA’s transshipment hub under Guelleh, this came at a cost, as the political democratization space was frozen for almost 21 years and all institutions became centralized. The opposition and democracy advocates are patiently waiting for Djibouti’s transition into a democracy, and the Djibouti government has started discussions on such a transition, according to one Guelleh advisor. As President Guelleh was recently re-elected to his fifth term and the constitution limits the president’s age to 75, giving him three more years, perhaps it’s time for Djibouti to prepare its institutions and citizens for the transition to democracy, just like Kenya.

Geopolitically and geoeconomically, Djibouti is at a crossroads between the West and China. In the face of rising competition with the U.S. under the Trump and Biden administrations, Beijing is pursuing a so-called “dual circulation” strategy, involving a greater focus on the domestic market and self-reliance coupled with careful expansion abroad. As a result, China has reduced its investment in Africa, which could have a huge impact on Djibouti’s long-term financing and trade.

Although China has allowed Djibouti to restructure its railway and water supply project loans totaling $700 million, which is a departure from the usual perception of Beijing’s “debt-trap diplomacy,” Sens. Chris Coons and Marco Rubio sent a letter to then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in November 2018 laying out their concerns over a potential Chinese takeover of Djibouti’s ports. However, despite the restructuring, Djibouti’s debt burden remains substantial and it must manage it carefully to avoid the risk of default, like Zambia and Sri Lanka.

Djibouti’s Plan B roadmap

Djibouti needs to have a Plan B to deal with the impact of climate change, regional geopolitical dynamics, and its transition to democracy with an eye to managing its soaring debt and overreliance on Ethiopia’s unreliable energy exports and building up its human resources for the next generation. To do all of this will require laying out a concrete road map, including the following steps:

  1. Deregulate SOEs. Djibouti has performed poorly in the ICT sector, despite its geostrategic location for global fiber-optic lines and its role as the main supplier to Ethiopia, Yemen, Somalia, and Somaliland. Consider selling a 50% share in the SOE telecom sector to the private sector to modernize and increase internet and mobile penetration access and know-how. If improved, the sector could have a significant impact on economic growth, job creation, innovation, and poverty reduction. Good examples of this include Brunei, Bahrain, Cape Verde, etc.
  2. Consider negotiating debt with China by restructuring the majority of Chinese loans through natural resource- or asset-backed loan arrangements and selling part of the debt to a private consortium led by local and foreign private investors. This was done by the U.S. government all the way back in 1795 to preempt foreign dependence, and this same approach will help Djibouti to build its credit rating, which would attract more investment and reduce its risk exposure to one country.
  3. Djibouti is democratizing energy supply at the production level through independent power producers to harness energy from a 60-MW wind farm and a 50-MW geothermal plant in the Ghoubet area, near Lake Assal, which should significantly reduce the cost of electricity and boost energy access. However, deregulation of the SOE utility Electricité de Djibouti (EDD) is a must to address poor management, poor record-keeping and tariff collection, lack of technical capacity and human resources, combined with a monopoly over transmission and distribution of the electricity; otherwise EDD will hinder the success of Djibouti’s energy transition. It should renegotiate the ADR line debt with China and push Ethiopia to convert its electrified railway system to fossil fuel or seek compensation for the revenue fall due to climate change risk that causes power distributions from Ethiopia, including the failure to improve railway performance per the original design. It should also consider partnering with Power Africa for energy development through grants and debt-equity and the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation for infrastructure and production sector diversification.
  4. Rather than seeing Somaliland as a regional competitor and politicizing fruitless Somalia-Somaliland talks, take a bold and giant step and advocate for Somaliland’s recognition through the African Union and the U.N. before other Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) countries, such as Kenya, recognize it. In addition, invest in Somaliland’s energy, trade, and water resources to hedge against climate change and move away from dependence on Ethiopian water as a geopolitical and geoeconomic dividend in the future.
  5. Diversify the economy, which is currently driven by the service sector, into a production-based economy by investing in higher education (including technical schools), incentivizing partnerships with foreign universities to open branches in Djibouti, and building an industrial park zone that targets high-end technology demand manufacturing for Africa and the EU, such as solar and wind power, cell phones, and electronics, agricultural machines and inputs, leather processing, mining, and chemical processing. Modernize investing in the finance sector by partnering with African fintech pioneers like Kenya’s Safaricom to elevate conventional Djibouti financing to global digital financing and technology standards.

The West has to understand a couple of things about Djibouti’s debt and its bilateral relationship with China: When Djibouti opened its doors for international investment, nobody showed up or had a keen interest in investing, except to rent its assets, thus it had no choice but to seek out China, which gave them a hand and helped save the country from an economic death spiral. China did not impose itself on Djibouti or aim to trap it in debt, as is often portrayed by Western media and governments. Djibouti merely took out manageable loans to invest in its national infrastructure with the aim of becoming self-reliant, instead of relying on West food aid for decades or military aid that has only driven a cycle of war in the HoA. It’s worth noting that it took the U.S. government more than two decades to pay back the loans it took out from France to finance the War for Independence against Britain — and it defaulted several times in the process.

The pandemic has had little effect on Djibouti’s economy and GDP is expected to grow above 6% per World Bank figures, mainly driven by shipyard building projects and the construction of a floating oil refinery project that will make Djibouti a leader in energy-smart management in East Africa.

The U.S. and EU countries should partner with Djibouti, assist in its transition to democracy like Taiwan and Kenya, and help facilitate the diversification of its economy, following the example of the Marshall Plan or the Taiwanese economic miracle. Doing so will enable them to truly compete against China in Africa, rather than merely sounding the alarm about the Chinese debt trap myth like a former colonial power.

This article was originally published on MEI by Guled Ahmed is a non-resident scholar at MEI, renewable energy and water infrastructure expert, and an entrepreneur. The views expressed in this piece are his own.

Photo by YASUYOSHI CHIBA/AFP via Getty Images

July 2021 Employee of the Month: Abiy Ahmed

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Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed inherited a state. He sacrificed it to the dream of an empire. On his current trajectory, Abiy’s political obituary will be that he left Ethiopians with neither state nor empire.

Many autocrats kill people. It takes a particular kind of leader to kill a country. This is what the Ethiopian Prime Minister is doing.

There was a moment when Abiy was seen indispensable to solving Ethiopia’s problems. Today he is the problem.

At the United Nations Security Council meeting on July 2, western nations put their emphasis on human rights and humanitarian calamity, while Kenya (representing the African nations) and China-focused their concern on preserving the Ethiopian state. None of them subscribed to the Ethiopian government’s official narrative.

As if to confirm their fears, three days later Abiy made a speech in parliament and announced that he was closing thirty of Ethiopia’s sixty embassies. He said he didn’t think that his country’s diplomats were value for money, and suggested that the diaspora were doing a better job. Africa’s oldest and most esteemed diplomatic corps, which was built up by Emperor Haile Selassie after World War II and nurtured by successive regimes, is being willfully destroyed.

In the same speech, Abiy denied that his army had suffered a defeat in Tigray, and said that he could raise and train 100,000 special forces in a month, and a million soldiers if need be. The rout of the Ethiopian National Defense Force in Tigray was due in part to Abiy’s dismantling of the army as an institution, which he began almost as soon as he took office. Huge numbers of foot soldiers along with new tanks and drones cannot compensate for lack of generalship, doctrine and strategy. Abiy is simply arming Ethiopians to kill and die.

Abiy’s economic policy of liberalization and attracting foreign investment has been sacrificed to the war, which has consumed the government’s budget, destroyed a significant part of its industry and service sector, and shattered its reputation among international financial institutions and private sector investors.

Abiy Ahmed became prime minister in April 2018 at a time of crisis in Ethiopia. ‘Crisis’ is a relative term. The economy was growing fast, the country had functioning state institutions envied by its neighbors, the ruling party was finally moving towards being an arena for genuine political debate, and the country was at peace with all its neighbors save one—and was well positioned to impose peace terms that would compel Eritrea to demilitarize and democratize. The government faced no military threats at home or abroad; it was Africa’s largest contributor to United Nations and African Union peacekeeping operations; Ethiopia enjoyed strong relations with the U.S., Europe, and China. Middle Eastern that countries it had long regarded as strategic challengers—Egypt and the Gulf States—were at bay.

Abiy came to power because a largely non-violent democratic protest movement caused the head of government to step down and the core element in the ruling party and security sector—the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)—to step aside.

After 27 years in power, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) had dismally failed on democracy and human rights, but had won Ethiopia an enviable reputation for stability and growth. Ethiopia’s state capacity was not an automatic inheritance of its long history as an independent polity. Ethiopia’s state had been built by decades of statesmanship at the top, investment in institutions, and lifelong dedication by civil servants.

Many African leaders in ‘crisis’ countries envied Abiy the political capital he possessed and the opportunity to build on strengths and remedy weaknesses. Viewed by many as a reformer, he also enjoyed considerable popular support. His early steps seemed to manifest that promise—releasing political prisoners, inviting opposition parties back, lifting censorship, reaching out to Eritrea.

Abiy made grand promises to everyone, and everyone loved it. He basked in the glory. He took the accolades far more seriously than he should have done. Drawing on his Pentecostal faith and his personal sense of destiny, Abiy refashioned the myth of Ethiopia as a nation chosen by God. He dispensed with any humility and readiness to reflect upon and learn from error. In short, Abiy had a messianic vision but lacked the basics of statecraft.

Abiy did not bring Ethiopia to this precipice alone. His predecessor, Prime Minister Haile Mariam Dessalegn, failed to lead and allowed the country to drift into turmoil. Hailemariam compounded rather than remedied the problems he inherited from Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. Getachew Asefa, former head of security, was responsible for many of the most egregious abuses of the EPRDF government—and when Abiy issued an arrest warrant for him, he fled to Tigray where the TPLF elevated him to their central committee. Before and during the current war, the TPLF spokesman, Getachew Reda, prefers posturing and point-scoring to problem solving. Berhanu Nega, leader of the Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice (EZEMA) party, has cultivated a nostalgic imperial-nationalism that has been instrumental in driving the war fever in Addis Ababa and parts of Amhara region, and Deputy Prime Minister Demeke Mekonnen has connived with this effort. Legions of twitter warriors roar incendiary nonsense on social media. Foreign actors who indulged Abiy’s egomania share responsibility. Above all, Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki seized his moment to become godfather to Ethiopia’s self-destruction, pursuing his long-held ambitions of seeking to crush Tigray and bring Ethiopia to its knees.

Helped by these men—whether adversaries or allies—Abiy has brought Ethiopia to the brink of political, economic, and reputational collapse. He has made Ethiopia the land of famine once again (though he denies that there is hunger in Tigray), and the land of gang rape for the first time (something he jokes about). He banned opposition parties, imprisoned dissenters, closed newspapers and detained journalists. He has destroyed the army while making needless enemies at home and abroad. His friends—notably Pres. Isaias—are more dangerous to Ethiopia than his enemies. Abiy rushed into a preventable war and bragged about it.

These are all sufficient reason for Abiy to warrant Abiy’s award as ‘employee of the month’—the individual who has done most to stand in the way of peace. But what singles out Abiy is the culmination of his folly, which is contemplating the breakup of Ethiopia—the secession of Tigray—as preferable to his accepting the reality that he has failed. The measure of a statesman is handling adversity. In the face of the calamities of the last months, Abiy has preferred to live in a bubble of illusion rather than take the necessary and painful steps to salvage his country. He is sustaining that bubble with incendiary mobilization of ethno-national passions that he cannot control. His most recent statement, speaking of Tigrayans as an incurable disease and an invasive weed is aptly described as ‘a textbook example of dehumanizing speech and incitement to genocide.’ The havoc Abiy is unleashing and the hatred he is fomenting will surely outlast his tenure in office.

Many autocrats cause appalling suffering to their people, but historians assess them as having built states. PM Abiy is responsible for immeasurable human distress—mass killings, rape, torture and starvation. But he is also leaving a legacy of deliberately turning Ethiopia into a fragile and quite possibly a failed state.

The ‘Employee of the Month award’ is bestowed on the person who has done the most to harm the cause of world peace in the last month. Image: “A Conversation with Abiy Ahmed, Prime Minister of Ethiopia” by World Economic Forum is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0.

This article is republished from The World Peace Foundation under a Creative Commons license.

Who’s running Haiti after president’s assassination? 5 questions answered

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Patrick D Bellegarde-Smith, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee

Two men are vying to control Haiti after President Jovenel Moïse’s July 7 assassination, creating more turmoil for a nation in crisis. Here, scholar Patrick Bellegarde-Smith, a Haitian studies scholar and author of “Haiti: The Breached Citadel,” explains the unusual situation that gave rise to this power struggle – and asserts that Haiti may never get the democracy it needs.

1. Who is running Haiti right now?

Prime Minister Claude Joseph has assumed power. However, Joseph was only an acting prime minister. Appointed by President Moïse in April 2021 on an interim basis, he was supposed to have been replaced on July 7, 2021, by Dr. Ariel Henry, a former interior minister and neurosurgeon. The day before the transition was to happen, the president was assassinated.

Both claim they are the legitimate prime minister. But neither Joseph nor his would-be successor as prime minister have been approved by the Haitian legislature, a necessary step, because there is no functioning Haitian legislature at the moment. Lawmakers’ terms of office ended in January 2020 and President Moïse never held legislative elections to elect new lawmakers, as called for by statute.

So the country has been operating without a parliament for the past 18 months. Moïse ruled by decrees – “decret-lois” – that did not require legislative approval. In the U.S., executive orders would be a close parallel.

Haitian Prime Minister Claude Joseph speaks at a press conference at his residence.
Acting Haitian Prime Minister Claude Joseph at a press conference at his residence in Port-au-Prince on July 8, 2021. Getty Images/Getty Images News via Getty Images

2. Who is officially supposed to replace the president of Haiti if he dies or becomes incapacitated?

For long stretches of its history, the Haitian Constitution named the president of the Cour de Cassation – chief justice of the Haitian supreme court – as first in the line of succession, followed by all other judges of the high court, based on seniority.

The Constitution of 1987 was amended to say that the prime minister would become the transitional chief of state – but only after he had been ratified by both houses of the legislature, comprising the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.

Well, Haiti’s legislature is not in operation right now. You have only 10 sitting senators out of 30, and no deputies left. So the constitutional provision cannot be applied. And the president of Haiti’s high court died of COVID-19 in June 2021.

This is the thing that’s most worrisome to me: Whatever the Constitution provides for at the moment cannot happen.

3. What is the US government’s position on Haiti’s leadership crisis?

The U.S. helped create the situation by its continued support of President Moïse, who had become despised by many Haitians even before he overstayed his four-year term. After his 2016 election, Moïse quickly lost all credibility because of a corruption scandal, with all sectors of the Haitian population – its small political elite class, the wealthy, the middle classes and the broad peasantry.

But former President Donald Trump liked Moïse. President Biden supported his administration, too, but hasn’t paid much attention to Haiti – until now. So far, the U.S. has denied a request from Haiti’s interim prime minister to send troops “to assist and help us.”

The U.S. has also called for national elections to be held by the end of the year, as scheduled – as if “democracy” means only elections. The definition of democracy in the U.S. is very instrumental: Either you have an election or don’t you have an election, so you’re either a democracy or you aren’t.

It’s not as simple as that. Democracy is a process.

4. So what would a Haitian democratic process look like?

Haitians have always sought democracy.

After all, Haiti was the first country the world to abolish slavery. Fourteen days after declaring independence from France, in 1804, the Haitian chief of state Jean-Jacques Dessalines declared Haiti would provided refuge and guaranteed freedom for all and any Black persons who reached its shores. Dessalines was soon killed.

What modern Haitians want is democracy – that’s “Haitian democracy, not American democracy,” to quote a peasant woman speaking to a reporter in 1987.

But what Haitians want has been ignored since 1915, the last time a Haitian president was assassinated. That opened the door for a brutal 19-year U.S. military invasion and occupation. Even before 1915, there were 19 U.S. military interventions in Haiti, and many more since.

It’s the rare Haitian president who can be elected without the consent of the United States, and none survive without Washington’s support. Several presidents elected by Haitians have been overthrown with the U.S. government’s help.

One was President Jean-Bertrand Aristide, a Roman Catholic priest from the slums, who was elected in 1990. Poor Haitian people, the majority, massively voted for him, and he brought people like them – the peasants, the urban working classes – into power. This horrified the Haitian middle and upper classes.

Father Jean-Bertrand Aristide holds up his thumb covered in ink after voting.
Haitian presidential candidate Jean-Bertrand Aristide after voting in Haiti’s 1990 presidential election, Dec. 16, 1990. Aristide won in a landslide. JEROME DELAY/AFP via Getty Images

Aristide was overthrown by the Haitian army seven months into office. He later returned to power and was overthrown again – a coup he says was U.S.-backed. The U.S. denies involvement.

5. What does so much foreign intervention in Haiti’s history mean for its future?

If Haiti is to have a real representative democracy, the Haitian power structure must reflect the culture of the Haitian people. That may take a revolution – and with the U.S. engagement there, that’s unlikely to happen.

One moment in which this process began to occur was the 1987 constitution, which was published in both Creole and in French. Voted on in a referendum, it passed with stunning popular approval.

In several moves aimed at removing colonial influence, the new constitution made Haitian Creole the official language of Haiti and removed Catholicism – the French faith – as the state religion. It also decriminalized the Haitian religion Vodou.

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The changes mandated by the new constitution are very much still in progress. Ninety-five percent of Haitians do not speak a lick of French – but the schools overwhelmingly teach in French. Until recently the courts and the legislature conducted all their business in French. This means the people don’t know what’s going on in their country.

If the state institutions do not reflect the country’s culture, then a country can never be democratic.

Patrick D Bellegarde-Smith, Professor Emeritus of Africology, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

Why is Delta such a worry? It’s more infectious, probably causes more severe disease, and challenges our vaccines

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Michael Toole, Burnet Institute

While Australians may be focused on the havoc the Delta variant is wreaking on our shores, Delta is in fact driving waves of COVID infections all around the world.

With the World Health Organization (WHO) warning Delta will rapidly become the dominant strain, let’s take a look at this variant in a global context.

The rise and rise of Delta

The Delta variant (B.1.617.2) emerged quietly in the Indian state of Maharashtra in October 2020. It barely caused a ripple at a time when India was reporting around 40,000 to 80,000 cases a day, most being the Alpha variant (B.1.1.7) first found in the United Kingdom.

That changed in April when India experienced a massive wave of infections peaking at close to 400,000 daily cases in mid-May. The Delta variant rapidly emerged as the dominant strain in India.

The WHO designated Delta as a variant of concern on May 11, making it the fourth such variant.

The Delta variant rapidly spread around the world and has been identified in at least 98 countries to date. It’s now the dominant strain in countries as diverse as the UK, Russia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Australia and Fiji. And it’s on the rise.

In the United States, Delta made up one in five COVID cases in the two weeks up to June 19, compared to just 2.8% in the two weeks up to May 22.

Meanwhile, the most recent Public Health England weekly update reported an increase of 35,204 Delta cases since the previous week. More than 90% of sequenced cases were the Delta variant.

In just two months, Delta has replaced Alpha as the dominant strain of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK. The increase is primarily in younger age groups, a large proportion of whom are unvaccinated.

2 key mutations

Scientists have identified more than 20 mutations in the Delta variant, but two may be crucial in helping it transmit more effectively than earlier strains. This is why early reports from India called it a “double mutant”.

The first is the L452R mutation, which is also found in the Epsilon variant, designated by the WHO as a variant of interest. This mutation increases the spike protein’s ability to bind to human cells, thereby increasing its infectiousness.

Preliminary studies also suggest this mutation may aid the virus in evading the neutralising antibodies produced by both vaccines and previous infection.

A woman wearing a mask crosses the street in New York.
Evidence shows the Delta variant is more infectious. We can understand why by looking at its mutations. Shutterstock

The second is a novel T478K mutation. This mutation is located in the region of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein which interacts with the human ACE2 receptor, which facilitates viral entry into lung cells.

The recently described Delta Plus variant carries the K417N mutation too. This mutation is also found in the Beta variant, against which COVID vaccines may be less effective.


Read more: What’s the ‘Delta plus’ variant? And can it escape vaccines? An expert explains


One good thing about the Delta variant is the fact researchers can rapidly track it because its genome contains a marker the previously dominant Alpha variant lacks.

This marker — known as the “S gene target” — can be seen in the results of PCR tests used to detect COVID-19. So researchers can use positive S-target hits as a proxy to quickly map the spread of Delta, without needing to sequence samples fully.

Why is Delta a worry?

The most feared consequences of any variant of concern relate to infectiousness, severity of disease, and immunity conferred by previous infection and vaccines.

WHO estimates Delta is 55% more transmissible than the Alpha variant, which was itself around 50% more transmissible than the original Wuhan virus.

That translates to Delta’s effective reproductive rate (the number of people on average a person with the virus will infect, in the absence of controls such as vaccination) being five or higher. This compares to two to three for the original strain.

There has been some speculation the Delta variant reduces the so-called “serial interval”; the period of time between an index case being infected and their household contacts testing positive. However, in a pre-print study (a study which hasn’t yet been peer-reviewed), researchers in Singapore found the serial interval of household transmission was no shorter for Delta than for previous strains.

One study from Scotland, where the Delta variant is predominating, found Delta cases led to 85% higher hospital admissions than other strains. Most of these cases, however, were unvaccinated.

The same study found two doses of Pfizer offered 92% protection against symptomatic infection for Alpha and 79% for Delta. Protection from the AstraZeneca vaccine was substantial but reduced: 73% for Alpha versus 60% for Delta.

A study by Public Health England found a single dose of either vaccine was only 33% effective against symptomatic disease compared to 50% against the Alpha variant. So having a second dose is extremely important.

In a pre-print article, Moderna revealed their mRNA vaccine protected against Delta infection, although the antibody response was reduced compared to the original strain. This may affect how long immunity lasts.


Read more: The symptoms of the Delta variant appear to differ from traditional COVID symptoms. Here’s what to look out for


A global challenge to controlling the pandemic

The Delta variant is more transmissible, probably causes more severe disease, and current vaccines don’t work as well against it.

WHO warns low-income countries are most vulnerable to Delta as their vaccination rates are so low. New cases in Africa increased by 33% over the week to June 29, with COVID-19 deaths jumping 42%.

There has never been a time when accelerating the vaccine rollout across the world has been as urgent as it is now.

WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Gebreyesus has warned that in addition to vaccination, public health measures such as strong surveillance, isolation and clinical care remain key. Further, tackling the Delta variant will require continued mask use, physical distancing and keeping indoor areas well ventilated.

Michael Toole, Professor of International Health, Burnet Institute

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

Minister of Trade Revokes the Operating License of A Company Representing Ethiopia’s Largest Shipping Company

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According to a directive from the Ministry of Trade, Industries and Tourism and signed by Minister Mohamoud Hassan Saad (Saajin), the Somaliland government has revoked the operating license of Integrated Shipping Services, a subsidiary of Laas Group. Somaliland’s largest bottling plant that produces Coca-Cola and other beverages is also a subsidiary of Laas Group.

The Ministry accused Integrated Shipping Services of breaking the law by bringing the Head of Ethiopian Shipping and Logistics Service Enterprise to Berbera Port without the knowledge of the Somaliland government. In addition, the license revocation notice from the Ministry adds that the operating license of Integrated Shipping Services has expired on February 23rd, 2021 and that the request to revoke the company’s license is from Somaliland Port Authority. The Ministry did not specify what specific laws were broken.

On July 6th, Gibe, a large Ethiopian-flagged cargo ship owned and operated by Ethiopian Shipping and Logistics Service Enterprise docked at Berbera Port. This was a highly publicized event that was hailed as historic, as this was the first time in 20 years an Ethiopian ship has come to Berbera. Another cargo vessel serviced by Ethiopian Shipping and Logistics Service Enterprise, the Shebelle is expected to arrive in Berbera Port soon.

Sources close to Laas Group allege that the Minister of Trade, Industries, and Tourism Hon. Mohamoud Hassan Saad (Saajin) is acting on behalf of a private company with close ties to the Somaliland Presidency whose interest to represent Ethiopian Shipping and Logistics Service Enterprise in Somaliland was rejected by the Ethiopian company due to its existing relationship with Integrated Shipping Services

The Chairman of Laas Group, Mr. Ahmed Osman Geele had previously locked horns with the current government of President Muse Bihi Abdi over an alleged extradition request from Djibouti.

Laas Group Chairman, Mr. Ahmed Osman Geele

Sources have dismissed the allegation leveled against Integrated Shipping Services and say that the Somaliland government was well aware of ESLSE officials and their visit to the Berbera Port and that the Ethiopian officials have met with multiple government officials including the head of Somaliland’s Chamber of Commerce, as well as DP World officials.

Minister Saajin was accused by DP World recently of playing favoritism among businesses when he intervened on behalf of a private company.

It is unclear how the revocation of the company representing the largest Ethiopian shipping company will impact the Berbera Port and its service to Ethiopia or if Integrated Shipping Services have any appeal or recourse.

Efforts to reach the Minister of Trade, Industries, and Tourism Hon. Mohamoud Hassan Saad (Saajin), the Chairman of Laas Group Chairman Mr. Ahmed Osman Geele were unsuccessful.