 |
KEY POINTS:
- Turkish Airlines and Qatar Airways suspending flights signals Somalia’s major patron states have lost confidence in security situation
- Somalia ranks 179th out of 180 countries in corruption with score of 9/100, worsening despite billions in international aid
- President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud spends lavishly on international travel and Washington lobbying firms while soldiers go unpaid
- Al-Shabaab now controls more territory than any time since 2011, following Taliban’s successful playbook
- African Union peacekeeping mission (AUSSOM) faces financial collapse as donors withdraw support
- Trump administration unlikely to continue funding a government with no accountability or results
When Turkish Airlines and Qatar Airways suspended flights to Somalia’s capital last week, few outside the region noticed. They should have. This development, alongside American diplomats fleeing Mogadishu’s airport after militant attacks, isn’t just another security hiccup – it’s the beginning of the end for a Western experiment that has swallowed billions with nothing to show for it.
A Corruption Network with a Government Problem
Somalia’s corruption isn’t just bad – it’s historic. Ranking 179th out of 180 countries in Transparency International’s 2024 index with a pathetic score of 9/100, Somalia has actually managed to get worse, dropping 2 points since 2023. This isn’t corruption within a system; this is corruption as the system.
While Finance Minister Bihi Egeh bemoans the potential loss of $1.5 billion in U.S. aid, he conveniently forgets to mention where previous billions vanished. Military commanders pocket salaries for non-existent “ghost soldiers,” leaving actual units undermanned. Weapons purchased with Western funding routinely disappear from government armories, only to resurface in Al-Shabaab attacks. Intelligence leaks so consistently that security analysts assume Al-Shabaab has penetrated every level of government. Even judicial positions are bought and sold openly, driving desperate citizens to seek justice from Al-Shabaab’s harsh but predictable courts.
Patrons Head for the Exit
The suspension of flights by Turkish Airlines and Qatar Airways isn’t merely a business decision – it’s a devastating vote of no confidence from Somalia’s most committed international backers. Unlike Western powers who engage from embassy compounds, Turkey manages Mogadishu’s port and airport while maintaining its largest overseas military base in the country. Qatar has bankrolled government operations during funding gaps, while simultaneously keeping communications open with Al-Shabaab – much as it does with Taliban, Hamas, and other terrorist networks.
Will these patron states simply work with Al-Shabaab if militants eventually take Mogadishu? Their pragmatism knows no bounds, and it’s entirely possible they don’t care who rules Somalia as long as they maintain their prime position in the country’s economy. Turkey’s infrastructure investments and Qatar’s relationships across the political spectrum practically guarantee they’ll be among the first to recognize any new power reality.
“When your closest friends start heading for the exits, it’s time to acknowledge the building is on fire,” notes a Gulf diplomatic source familiar with Qatar’s decision-making.
The $50 Billion Experiment That Failed
Let’s be brutally honest: Somalia has absorbed over $50 billion in international aid since 1991 with minimal sustainable improvements in governance or security. The Danab Brigade – Somalia’s elite U.S.-trained counter-terrorism unit – remains somewhat effective only because Americans bypassed government structures entirely, maintaining direct oversight of recruitment, payment, and operations.
Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has become infamous as one of the world’s most frequent-flying heads of state, jetting off to international conferences and photo opportunities nearly weekly while his country burns. As Al-Shabaab consolidates control over increasing territory, Mohamud and his inner circle have funneled millions into glitzy Washington lobbying firms to keep American money flowing. These lavish expenditures – paid for ultimately by American taxpayers – represent the perfect microcosm of Somalia’s dysfunction: U.S. aid creates a bloated class of government kleptocrats whose primary skills lie not in governance or security provision, but in separating gullible Western donors from their money. While Mogadishu’s political elites wine and dine at five-star hotels in Western capitals and maintain luxury residences abroad, soldiers on the front lines go unpaid, and Al-Shabaab’s shadow government expands its reach. American billions haven’t brought stability to Somalia – they’ve created a parasitic political class with no incentive to actually defeat the insurgency that justifies their continued international support.
The evidence is inescapable: Somalia’s problems aren’t about funding levels but legitimacy, accountability, and trust. More money doesn’t build state capacity; it merely enables more sophisticated corruption networks. As one Western official put it, “We’re not funding a government. We’re funding a money laundering operation with a flag.”
Adding to this complex picture, Somalia has increasingly strengthened ties with China, signing onto Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative while accepting infrastructure deals with limited transparency requirements. This diplomatic balancing act raises questions about whether China might become Somalia’s next financial backer as Western donors reconsider their investments. The challenge for Beijing, should it step into this role, would be avoiding the same patterns of ineffective aid that have characterized Western engagement for decades.
Al-Shabaab Executes the Taliban Playbook
For anyone who watched Afghanistan’s collapse, Somalia’s trajectory is disturbingly familiar. Al-Shabaab has methodically followed the Taliban’s successful blueprint: focus on rural control while launching just enough urban attacks to demonstrate government weakness; patiently wait out Western resolve; weaponize public resentment against corruption; infiltrate government security structures; and establish shadow governance that, while brutal, appears more competent than the internationally-backed government.
Intelligence reports confirm Al-Shabaab now controls more territory than at any point since 2011, collects taxes more efficiently than the government, and dispenses predictable justice in areas under its control. “The reality Western policymakers refuse to accept is that insurgencies don’t need to be loved by the population—they just need to be seen as more competent and less predatory than the government,” notes a former Western counterinsurgency advisor with extensive experience in both Afghanistan and Somalia. “By that measure, Al-Shabaab is winning.”
AUSSOM: Peacekeeping Without Peace or Funding
Somalia’s last security bulwark, the newly rebranded African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), teeters on the brink of financial collapse. Despite diplomatic platitudes about “sustainable funding mechanisms,” donor fatigue has set in. The European Union’s willingness to cover troop stipends is waning, while United Nations logistical support grows increasingly tenuous.
This financial uncertainty couldn’t come at a worse moment. Ethiopia – AUSSOM’s backbone – is distracted by internal conflicts and maritime disputes with Somalia. Uganda has made it clear that continued troop contributions depend entirely on reliable international funding that isn’t materializing.
Without a robust AUSSOM presence, intelligence assessments suggest Al-Shabaab would likely expand control to most population centers outside Mogadishu within months. The bitter irony: Western nations, having spent billions on Somalia’s stability, now appear unwilling to fund the one mechanism that has somewhat contained Al-Shabaab.
Trump Administration: No More Blank Checks
The Trump administration represents the final nail in Somalia’s financial coffin. President Trump’s “America First” approach and Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s hawkish stance make additional funding for Somalia virtually unthinkable. The White House team sees Somalia’s corruption rankings, territorial losses to Al-Shabaab, and decades of squandered aid as textbook examples of failed investment.
“The days of writing blank checks to failing states are over,” a Republican foreign policy advisor remarked privately. “The President wants concrete returns on American taxpayer dollars, and Somalia has consistently proven it cannot deliver.”
This policy shift comes exactly when Somalia’s government is most desperate for support, creating a perfect storm where years of mismanagement, corruption, and security failures are finally coming due. The chickens, as the saying goes, are coming home to roost.
The Next Kabul Awaits
Somalia’s internationally-backed government is approaching a point of no return. The combination of endemic corruption, resurgent Al-Shabaab, wavering international support, and AUSSOM’s precarious funding creates conditions eerily similar to pre-collapse Afghanistan.
For Western nations that have poured billions into this failed experiment, it’s time to acknowledge reality rather than writing more checks. Additional money without addressing core governance failures will simply disappear into the same corrupt systems that have swallowed previous investments.
The fall of Kabul shocked the world in 2021. The fall of Mogadishu – when it comes – should surprise no one.
