A report published by the Emirates Policy Center (EPC) states that the Islamic State (ISIS) is strengthening its foothold in Somalia’s semi-autonomous Puntland region. This expansion is fueling renewed clashes with al-Shabaab, another prominent militant group, exacerbating the already volatile security situation in the country.
“The expansion of IS forces into Puntland will likely lead to another round of bloody jihadist infighting and create a new safe haven for the group,” said Abdul Khaliq Abdullah, Secretary General of the EPC, in the report published this week.
The report indicates that ISIS, whose Somalia province pledged allegiance in 2015, has been strategically expanding its operations in Puntland, leveraging the region’s political instability and rugged terrain along the “Golis Mountains stretching from Bari to Sanaag.” It also capitalizes on unfettered access to the Red Sea with proximity to Yemen and other restive regions. This move is seen as part of ISIS’s broader strategy to establish a significant presence in the Horn of Africa.
The increased ISIS activity has led to intensified confrontations with al-Shabaab, which has long dominated the jihadist landscape in Somalia. According to James Fenerty, the Horn of Africa director for the Crisis Group, the conflict between these two groups “is not merely territorial, but is part of a broader ideological struggle as each group seeks to assert dominance and project strength.”
Al-Shabaab, which is affiliated with al-Qaeda, views the encroachment of ISIS as a direct challenge to its authority. “This makes al-Shabaab see ISIS’s arrival as an existential threat,” Fenerty added. This has resulted in violent skirmishes and targeted assassinations of commanders and foot soldiers from both groups. Just last month, at least 13 militants were killed in Puntland during fighting between ISIS and al-Shabaab, according to local officials.
The local population is caught in the deadly crossfire, facing threats from both ISIS and al-Shabaab. “Civilians face brutality from both sides in this scramble for control,” said Omar Mahmood, an International Crisis Group analyst. The Puntland authorities, alongside national and international partners, are struggling to contain the violence. Efforts to bolster local security forces and improve intelligence capabilities are ongoing, but the complex dynamics of jihadist rivalry complicate these initiatives.
However, the Puntland administration has faced widespread criticism for its handling of jihadist suspects. Accusations of a “catch and release” approach have surfaced, with reports suggesting that detained militants are often released without trial or adequate oversight.
“There have been credible reports of a ‘catch and release’ system where detained militants are freed without proper oversight,” said Rahma Abdulkadir, a researcher with Amnesty International. “This makes a mockery of counterterrorism efforts.”
Adding to the complexity, in March 2023, U.S. Special Forces conducted a high-profile operation in Puntland’s mountains, targeting key ISIS leaders and infrastructure. The operation with its direct deployment of U.S. troops in a rare Somalia raid shows a level of urgency and a sharp departure from the United States’ typical drone-based operations in the country.
“This direct deployment reflected the urgent need to disrupt ISIS’ spreading insurgency before it could further destabilize the region and imperil U.S. interests,” said a Defense Department official speaking on condition of anonymity.
Puntland has also been identified as a base of operations for several individuals like former al-Shabaab commander Abdulkadir Mumin, who is now a prominent ISIS leader in the region. These individuals are often involved in terrorist activities, piracy, and other illicit operations despite being targeted by international sanctions from the United Nations, United States and European Union.
In February 2022, the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) designated five leaders of the ISIS Somalia branch as Specially Designated Global Terrorists to disrupt the group’s efforts to expand into mainland Africa. The sanctions include asset freezes and prohibitions on transactions to degrade ISIS’s capacity for attacks.
However, enforcement of these sanctions has been challenging due to Puntland’s complex political and security landscape marked by porous borders and governance issues that make it a haven for those evading justice.
In its report, the EPC warns that resolving the infighting between ISIS and al-Shabaab will be an “uphill battle” without addressing the underlying drivers feeding extremism in Somalia:
“The fragmentation of central authority, lack of economic opportunities and presence of ungoverned spaces have created fertile ground for the spread of extremist ideologies and recruitment of disenfranchised youth,” the report states.
The rise of ISIS in Puntland also poses broader implications for regional security beyond Somali borders. According to Vanda Felbab-Brown, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, the group’s presence “could potentially attract foreign fighters and increase the flow of arms and resources into Somalia, further destabilizing the volatile Horn of Africa.”
Exacerbating the security challenges is the strained relationship between Puntland and Somalia’s Federal Government. The Puntland administration has suspended its cooperation with Mogadishu amid disputes over resource sharing, political representation, and administrative autonomy. This rift hampers coordinated counterterrorism efforts and undermines the unified response needed to address the jihadist threat effectively.
“Somalia desperately needs reliable security forces, good governance and economic development to counter extremist groups’ narratives,” Felbab-Brown said, warning that “the jihadist rivalry has made the tumult facing this region considerably more perilous.”
Meanwhile, al-Shabaab remains a formidable threat throughout Somalia, including in and around the capital. The group has conducted numerous high-profile attacks, including bombings, assassinations, and armed assaults on government and civilian targets.
Notable incidents include the October 2017 truck bombing in Mogadishu, which killed over 500 civilians, one of the deadliest attacks in the country’s history. Al-Shabaab has also struck government buildings, hotels and military checkpoints in brazen assaults that expose its potent operational capabilities despite efforts to degrade the group.
“The people of Somalia find themselves once again caught between murderous factions, all while facing appalling drought, hunger and displacement from the violence,” said Samira Gaid, executive director of the Mogadishu-based Raag NGO providing humanitarian assistance. “The emergence of an ISIS stronghold will only amplify the anguish and suffering.”
Analysts warn that without a coordinated and robust international response, the expansion of ISIS in Puntland could lead to prolonged instability and offer a haven for global jihadist networks to further destabilize the region. The international community is urged to ramp up support for Somali security forces while addressing the underlying political, economic and social grievances that fuel such insurgencies.
“Resolving the competition between ISIS and al-Shabaab will ultimately require going beyond a kinetic approach to promote governance, economic opportunities and nationalism that undercuts the appeal of extremist groups,” the EPC report concludes.
As the bloody conflict unfolds, Somalia’s path to peace faces new and daunting challenges. Robust international engagement and a holistic strategy tackling both military and civilian pillars will be crucial to mitigating the impact of this renewed jihadist infighting across the fragile Horn of Africa.
