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At Somaliland Presidency, President Muse Bihi Abdi convened his 134th and final ministerial meeting, delivering pointed guidance to both successors and supporters as Somaliland enters a critical transition period.
“To those who were in opposition, I say: You have won the election, and we have congratulated you. Since our focus is on building a nation, the right to continue with opposition rhetoric and divisive speech is no longer yours – go back and reconsider your approach,” Bihi declared, his tone mixing concession with caution.
Foreign Policy Legacy
President Bihi’s tenure has been marked by bold diplomatic initiatives that challenged regional orthodoxy. His administration’s latest and most consequential move—the January 2024 Memorandum of Understanding with Ethiopia—appeared to redraw the Horn of Africa’s geopolitical map. The agreement, promising naval access in exchange for potential recognition, achieved what years of patient diplomacy could not: forcing global engagement with Somaliland’s sovereignty aspirations.
This was not Bihi’s first diplomatic gambit. His 2020 decision to establish formal ties with Taiwan, directly defying China’s opposition, marked a significant shift in Somaliland’s foreign policy. The move strengthened relations with Taiwan while positioning Somaliland against China’s expanding influence in the Horn of Africa. Despite Beijing’s pressure and Somalia’s alignment with the “One-China” policy, the partnership has yielded dividends in health, education, and technology cooperation.
The administration’s independent foreign policy stance has found increasing resonance in Washington. Under President Trump, and now with a Republican-controlled Congress, there are growing indications of a potential shift away from the traditional “One-Somalia” policy. This reconsideration reflects broader strategic calculations in the Horn of Africa, particularly regarding competition with China and securing vital maritime routes.
Current Challenges
Yet these diplomatic gains face immediate tests. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s upcoming meeting with Somalia’s Hassan Sheikh Mohamud—who recently dropped demands for third-party mediation—suggests complex maneuvering ahead. Somalia’s response to the Ethiopia MoU has been particularly severe, mobilizing alliances with Turkey and Egypt while making unprecedented overtures to Al-Shabaab militants. Throughout January and February, pro-Somalia religious clerics and government officials declared holy war against both Somaliland and Ethiopia.
Regional Dynamics
The January 1st, 2024 Ethiopia MoU unleashed a diplomatic firestorm. Somalia’s response bordered on hysteria – mobilizing alliances with Turkey and Egypt while making unprecedented overtures to Al-Shabaab militants, all in desperate attempts to derail the agreement. Throughout January and February, pro-Somalia religious clerics and government officials declared holy war against both Somaliland and Ethiopia, marking an alarming escalation from a government claiming sovereignty over Somaliland.
In the wake of the Ethiopia MoU, the regional response has been varied, with Djibouti emerging as one of the most vocal critics. Interestingly, high-ranking members of the Waddani Party recently traveled to Djibouti and met with President Ismail Omar Guelleh. The delegation’s outreach raised eyebrows, especially given Guelleh’s antagonistic stance toward the MoU, which he views as a direct threat to Djibouti’s economic hegemony.
However, Waddani itself has remained notably silent on the delegation’s visit, leaving key questions unanswered. It is unclear whether these figures were acting in an official capacity as representatives of the party or as independent actors navigating the evolving regional dynamics. The lack of a formal position from Waddani adds an air of ambiguity, fueling speculation about the party’s posture toward Djibouti and the Ethiopia agreement.
Mogadishu’s diplomatic offensive reached new levels when President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud dropped his core precondition for direct talks with Prime Minister Abiy – namely, that Ethiopia must first repudiate the MoU. This dramatic concession, rather than signaling flexibility, underscores Somalia’s determination to prevent Somaliland’s diplomatic breakthrough through any means necessary.
Democratic Milestones and Governance Challenges
“We shouldered 90% of the electoral costs,” Bihi emphasized, referring to Somaliland’s successful execution of simultaneous presidential, parliamentary, and local council elections. This self-reliance, while strengthening democratic credentials, contrasted with his administration’s domestic governance record.
Critics point to frequent cabinet reshuffles and a governance style that often prioritized loyalty over expertise. Yet these shortcomings stand against significant achievements in elevating Somaliland’s international profile.
To his Kulmiye Party supporters, facing opposition status after 14 years in power (2010-2024), Bihi offered characteristically direct counsel: “Though we lost the election yesterday and the day before, we are still nation-building,” he stressed. “While we haven’t yet transferred power, when we do, we must observe a period of restraint. Just as a newborn needs forty days, new governments need their first hundred days – any destabilizing criticism from you is forbidden.”
Economic Stakes
The MoU’s implications for regional commerce are profound. Djibouti, which currently handles 95% of Ethiopia’s maritime trade worth an estimated $1.5 billion annually, faces unprecedented competition. The proposed development of Somaliland’s Berbera Port and Ethiopian naval facility promises to reshape regional trade dynamics. Conservative estimates suggest the deal could generate over $600 million in annual revenue for Somaliland’s economy.
However, the new administration faces complex challenges in implementation. Beyond managing diplomatic pressures, they must ensure equitable distribution of potential benefits across Somaliland’s regions. The experience of Djibouti, where port development created concentrated wealth without broad economic transformation, serves as both lesson and warning.
A Future Unwritten
“We remain custodians of this nation’s progress,” Bihi concluded—words carrying fresh significance as Somaliland navigates perhaps its most consequential diplomatic juncture since declaring independence. The upcoming Ethiopia-Somalia dialogue could validate his strategic vision or highlight the limitations of unilateral diplomacy in the complex Horn of Africa.
For a nation built on pragmatic diplomacy and democratic values, this peaceful transition marks another step toward maturity. Bihi’s successor inherits elevated international visibility alongside significant challenges—a legacy as complex as the leader himself.
