The current geopolitical machinations in the Horn of Africa, with Turkey’s attempts to resurrect Abiy Ahmed’s failed 2018 strategy for Ethiopian sea access via Somalia, epitomize not merely a recapitulation of past diplomatic follies but also lay bare the stark inadequacies of Somaliland’s foreign policy apparatus. This unfolding drama threatens to upend regional stability and willfully disregards the realities of territorial sovereignty in this strategically crucial nexus.
Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s engagement in these negotiations may be construed as either a calculated delay tactic, mindful of Somaliland’s impending elections, or a gesture of acquiescence to Turkish interests, given their substantial economic entanglements. However, should Abiy genuinely believe in the efficacy of securing Red Sea access through parleys with Somalia, he finds himself ensnared in a diplomatic time loop. The Turkish-mediated dialogues are predestined to failure, mirroring Abiy’s ill-fated 2018 gambit with then-President Farmajo, for one critical reason: they systematically exclude Somaliland, a truly sovereign nation exercising effective control over the coveted coastal territories.
While Somaliland’s international recognition remains pending, its firm control over its territory is incontrovertible. Somaliland may not be internationally recognized, but possession is nine-tenths of the law, and Somaliland is firmly in charge of what is hers—exactly what Ethiopia needs if it hopes to secure lasting access to the Red Sea. This ground reality renders any external negotiation that sidelines Somaliland not merely an exercise in futility but a dangerously myopic strategy. The principle of “effective control” in international jurisprudence lends credence to Somaliland’s position, making its involvement not just advisable but imperative for any viable accord.
Equally disquieting is Somaliland’s tepid diplomatic response to these developments. Hargeisa’s foreign policy apparatus appears to be navigating this critical juncture with a disconcerting lack of strategic acumen. Their communiqués, often released with a time lag that betrays a lack of urgency, oscillate between reaffirming commitment to the January 1st Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Ethiopia and expressing vague concerns, failing to articulate a cogent and forceful position befitting a nation asserting its sovereignty.
This passive approach to statecraft raises serious questions about Somaliland’s readiness for the international recognition it claims to seek. Is Somaliland genuinely committed to asserting its independence, or has it become too comfortable in its diplomatic limbo? The current leadership’s demure diplomacy suggests either a lack of seriousness about recognition, a crippling timidity on the world stage, or perhaps an unfortunate combination of both.
Turkey’s role in this geopolitical theater is far from benign. As Somalia’s patron state with vested interests in its maritime resources, Turkey’s mediation efforts are thinly veiled attempts to safeguard its economic stakes. By opposing Somaliland’s recognition and advocating for deals that marginalize it, Turkey seeks to maintain its hegemony over Somalia’s coastal wealth. Paradoxically, Turkey’s long-term interests might be better served by acknowledging Somaliland’s legitimate claims, potentially fostering greater regional stability and prosperity.
Ethiopia must awaken to these geopolitical realities. The path to the Red Sea does not lie through recycled, failed strategies or deals brokered by actors with conflicting interests. It runs through direct, respectful engagement with Somaliland, recognizing its de facto sovereignty and the criticality of the MoU. For this to succeed, Somaliland must elevate its diplomatic game to match Ethiopia’s overtures with clear, decisive statecraft.
Somaliland must pivot to a more assertive geopolitical stance to safeguard its sovereignty and strategic interests. This necessitates a multifaceted approach: unequivocally reaffirming its autonomy and the inviolability of the Ethiopian MoU, while concurrently orchestrating a sophisticated public diplomacy blitz to elucidate its position on the global stage. Paramount among these initiatives should be the immediate and unequivocal expulsion of the Turkish diplomatic contingent from Hargeisa—a resolute action signaling zero tolerance for external meddling in Somaliland’s affairs. This decisive maneuver would not only underscore Somaliland’s determination but potentially catalyze heightened international engagement. However, cognizant of Ethiopia’s vacillating commitment and Djibouti’s antagonistic posture vis-à-vis the MoU, Somaliland must diversify its diplomatic portfolio. The region’s burgeoning geostrategic significance, particularly the Bab Al-Mandeb strait, presents Somaliland with an unparalleled opportunity to leverage its position. Thus, while nurturing the Ethiopian accord, Somaliland must concurrently pursue a kaleidoscope of alliances and economic partnerships, intensifying its campaign for recognition and cementing its indispensability in the Horn of Africa’s complex geopolitical tapestry.
For Ethiopia, it is imperative to recognize that Turkey’s mediation efforts are antithetical to its national interests. By entertaining Turkey’s chimerical promises, Ethiopia risks not only reiterating past failures in securing Red Sea access but also potentially alienating public sentiment in Somaliland, jeopardizing its credibility as a reliable partner. Ethiopia’s strategic future lies in honoring its bilateral agreement with Somaliland and acknowledging that sustainable access to the Red Sea can only be achieved through a direct, respectful partnership with the entity exercising de facto control over the relevant territories.
External stakeholders, such as the United Arab Emirates, potentially involved in bolstering Ethiopia’s naval capabilities or port infrastructure, must also reckon with these geopolitical realities. Any investment predicated on a deal that excludes Somaliland is fundamentally untenable and shortsighted.
The geopolitical clock in the Horn of Africa ticks relentlessly. It is incumbent upon Somaliland to shed its diplomatic diffidence and assert itself on the world stage with the gravitas and clarity that its unique position demands. Concurrently, Ethiopia must remain steadfast in its commitments, resisting the allure of illusory quick fixes. Only through mutual respect and a clear-eyed recognition of the political realities on the ground can a lasting solution be forged—one that engenders stability and prosperity in this strategically vital region.
