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A line has been crossed, and there is no going back. On 26 December, Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland, an achievement that the Horn of African nation has been waiting for since 1991. More countries are sure to follow this policy change in due course. While Somalia and certain regional actors such as Turkey and Egypt have protested against this decision, the fact remains that Somaliland’s independence is the irrepressible will of its people, and Somaliland’s entry into the community of nations states has been a long time overdue. Rather than deny this reality, the international community must begin to envision what a new regional geopolitical and security order which includes Somaliland will look like, to maximize the benefits of this decision for regional trade, economic development, maritime security and interstate peace.
As part of the declaration signed between Prime Minister Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar of Israel and President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi of Somaliland, the two sides exchanged mutual recognition and established full diplomatic relations, with Somaliland immediately joining the Abraham Accords. On the same day, both Israel and Somaliland announced plans to open embassies. Israel perceives its recognition of Somaliland as part of a strategy towards the realization of the Abraham Accords-a set of US brokered agreements that seek to normalise relations between Israel and Muslim states.
Israel’s recognition of Somaliland will undoubtedly have regional and global implications. Somaliland, formerly a British Protectorate, became independent on 26 June 1960, united with Somalia on 1 July 1960 to form the Somali Republic, and reasserted its sovereignty on 18 May 1991. Despite operating as a democratic state for three decades and meeting the criteria for statehood, and presenting arguably the best case for recognition of any unrecognized contemporary entities, Somaliland has remained unrecognised internationally. Since 1991, its primary foreign policy objective has been gaining recognition, but successive administrations have not yet achieved this goal. With Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, this longstanding goal is finally beginning to be realized, with major implications for regional and international security.
Absence of International recognition, and the Politics of state recognition by Great Powers: Somaliland’s case.
For the past three and a half decades, Somaliland has existed independently from Somalia, which has remained mired in civil war and Islamist insurgency. Notwithstanding the absence of international recognition as an independent state, Somaliland’s successive administrations have built a viable democratic and functioning country with all the trappings of a state. Somaliland also succeeded in establishing bilateral relations with many countries, including with its African neighbors such as Ethiopia and Djibouti; western powers, like the USA and UK, and Gulf states like the UAE. However, these relations can be characterized as an engagement without recognition.
Failure to recognize Somaliland in the post-1990 era was primarily due to inadequate interest in the affairs of Somaliland. This contrasts with Kosovo, East Timor, and South Sudan, which received widespread or full recognition among the international community due to political calculations on the benefits of such recognition in terms of stemming conflict and pursuing great power interests. Until recently, Somaliland had no such powerful state sponsor. This all changed in 2017, however, when the major Emirati logistics company DP World refurbished and then began operating Somaliland’s Berbera port, which is now fully integrated into the UAE’s Jebel Ali shipping network. This development was itself the recognition of a more multipolar world, in which competition between the US and China, as well as among regional powers in the Gulf, saw Somaliland emerge as a key strategic partner in politics of the Horn of Africa and Gulf of Aden.
While these geopolitical shifts have meant greater international engagement for Somaliland, the lack of recognition has meant that the country remains fundamentally encumbered by severe state-building and developmental constraints. Non-recognition limits Somaliland’s access to foreign investment, international development assistance and engagement with international development partners and financial institutions. It also carries a deep psychological and moral weight, by fostering feelings of isolation and decreased national morale among Somaliland’s population. Deferring recognition has also not had the desired effect of avoiding conflict between Somaliland and Somalia, with the latter using its de jure authority over Somaliland to punish it with imposed restrictions on airspace management and e-visa allocations, while stoking proxy wars in Somaliland’s eastern regions, which has taken many lives. Israel’s recognition of Somaliland now puts greater impetus on the international community to put an end to these legal ambiguities so that both the Somaliland and Somalia people can move on to a brighter future.
What does Somaliland gain from these developments?
For Somaliland, Israel’s recognition is a game-changer. Experts have argued that Somaliland’s biggest challenge to recognition is finding the first country to take the leap, after which the dam would finally break. For Israel to be that country offers certain advantages and dangers. As many Western nations, particularly in Europe, remain at a loss over how to deal with Trump’s upending of the liberal international order, Israel has responded by taking the initiative and rewriting the geopolitical playbook. In this, it has the backing of the US, which, through the Abraham Accords, aims to consolidate these changes into a new greater Middle Eastern partnership free from the destabilizing influence of Iran and its proxy forces. Through Israel, Somaliland will presumably be able to garner the diplomatic backing for recognition among other members of this alliance, including the US, while also drawing on Israel’s influence among African nations.
On a more practical level, Somaliland will capitalise Israel’s technological expertise, particularly in the fields such as agriculture, water management, and security frameworks – areas significant for Somaliland’s development and stability. Somaliland’s accession to the Abraham Accords will create a new diplomatic pathway that will allow it to enhance its economic and security cooperation acrodd the region and the globe. Opportunities for intelligence sharing and security cooperation with Israel and other Abraham Accord members can equally serve as a major asset for Somaliland in its efforts at countering and preventing threats from terrorist organizations in the region, such as Al Shabaab. At the same time, Somaliland will also likely require security guarantees from these new partners, given the opposition to Somaliland’s relationship with Israel from amongst extremist groups such as the Houthis and Al Shabaab.
What does Israel gain from these developments?
Israel’s action is at least in part informed by Somaliland’s geo-strategic location along the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait on the Red Sea. This is an important sea route for international commercial shipments. Oil, gas, agricultural and industrial products to and from Europe and Asia pass through this route. DP World’s takeover of Berbera port has already enhanced Somaliland’s logistical integration into this network. Berbera also plays host to the longest runway in Horn Africa, while Somaliland’s coastline has already been identified by the UAE, the US and Ethiopia as an attractive place for one of their military bases. For Israel to tap into these strategic assets and facilities will greatly serve its regional security interests, particularly in countering Iran and the Houthis’ influence in the Red Sea.
Furthermore, Somaliland’s ascension to the Abraham Accords reenergizes momentum for the agreement following a period of diplomatic deadlock in the aftermath of the war in Gaza. With the dust settling on a period of immense destruction and tragic loss of life, it is time for the greater Middle East and North African region to begin envisioning what a new era of peace and stability might look like. With these recent diplomatic developments, Somaliland has shown that it is willing to sign up and contribute to the consolidation of this new order, in partnership with Israel and not in opposition. Furthermore, an alliance with Somaliland will enable Israel to counter the influence of Turkey and Qatar along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, given their longstanding and sizable support to the Somalia government in Mogadishu. Equally important is the potential of Somaliland’s untapped natural resources, including in petroleum deposits, minerals, gemstones and agricultural land.
What are the benefits of this agreement for the international community at large?
The recognition of Somaliland by Israel comes at a time of great volatility in the international system, with various regional and global actors increasingly seeking to take advantage of this political uncertainty to stake their own claim to leadership. Old diplomatic pieties are being revisited, including over the sanctity of Mogadishu’s claim to sole authority over the territory formerly known as Somali Republic. The Federal Government of Somalia’s failure to quell clan-based conflict and establish electoral legitimacy, or to eradicate the threats of Al Shabaab and ISIS, despite significant investment from the US and Europe and significant manpower from Africa, has made it clear that the dream of a political settlement or any future negotiations between Somaliland and Somalia is a dream whose time has long past.
Recognizing Somaliland not only affirms this reality, but offers a fresh opportunity to work with a reliable international partner such as Somaliland. When piracy was tormenting the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, it was Somaliland who the international community looked to for cooperation, after Somalia had let them down. Now, with the Houthis posing a danger to maritime trade through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Somaliland is again poised to play a critical role in maintaining maritime security and thus reducing the cost of shipping at a time of heightened inflation. And where the Somalia government has unequivocably failed to contain or degrade Al-Shabaab and ISIS, the Somaliland government is ready to work alongside Israel, the US and Europe to guarantee security and fight terrorism.
What next for Somaliland?
The biggest obstacle standing in the way of realizing these international benefits is a lack of political will on the part of those nations who have not yet signed up to the US and Israel’s new vision for the region. Some, like Somalia itself, who have already protested the decision, may never come on board. Others, like Djibouti, Turkey and Egypt, are also likely to stubbornly reject these developments, either due to self-interested calculations around economic and political competition, or because expanding Israeli influence serves as a counterweight to their self-appointed designs of dominance over the Horn. For now, the Arab League have followed such a lead, claiming an opposition to any redrawing of borders.
However, never has there been a better time to revisit the judgement produced by a 2005 African Union fact-finding mission to Somaliland, in which a panel of experts concluded that “Somaliland’s search for recognition [is] historically unique and self-justified in African political history,” and that, “objectively viewed, the case should not be linked to the notion of ‘opening a Pandora’s box.’” This was due to the fact that the union of former British Protectorate Somaliland and Somalia that created Somali Republic in 1960 was both conducted under dubious legal circumstances and was regardless legally dissolved through popular referendum among Somalilanders in 2001. This places it in the same camp as Senegal and the Gambia and Syria and Egypt, two cases of precedent for the dissolving of a political union.
In short, Israel’s recognition of Somaliland is not a reckless act of political realignment, but merely a prudent acceptance of political and legal realities. Other major powers, including the UK and Europe, would do well to follow suit, if only to help make their neighbourhood safer against commercial sabotage and extremist threat. Given the stakes, now is not the time to retreat into the diplomatic paralysis that has contributed to making the Horn of Africa one of the most deadly, conflict-prone regions in the world today. Whatever side one is on in Israel’s politics regarding Palestine, this should not cloud our judgement regarding what is politically rational and morally responsible regarding Somaliland, a country which has long deserved to join the community of nation-states.
About the Author
Mohamed Abdilahi Duale is the former Director General at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of the Republic of Somaliland. Mr. Duale has extensive experience in public policy, humanitarian work, and development, with a focus on institutional building, climate governance, and Somaliland’s international relations. Previously, he held the same position in both the Ministry of Planning and Development and the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change. He holds an MA in International Law from the Bristol Law School, University of the West of England.
Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, or viewpoints of Somaliland Chronicle, and its staff.
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