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Key Points
- Historic Agreement: On October 4-5, 2025, in Nairobi, the Republic of Somaliland and the Puntland Federal Member State of Somalia signed a landmark security and cooperation accord aimed at ending decades of conflict.
- Core Provisions: The deal establishes joint cooperation in counter-terrorism, maritime security, trade, and a cooperative approach to peace in Erigavo.
- Major Political Development: In a significant political statement within the communiqué, Puntland formally welcomed the Republic of Somaliland’s “progress in Governance and its right to its self-determination”.
- Domestic Opposition: The accord faces opposition within Somaliland, with critics citing constitutional concerns over sovereignty, while the government defends it as a pragmatic solution to inherited problems.
- Strategic Challenge: A central test for Hargeisa will be managing the asymmetric risks of the agreement, particularly how to leverage cooperation in regions like Sool without inadvertently ceding further influence to Puntland.
The joint security and cooperation accord concluded in Nairobi on October 4-5, 2025, constitutes a watershed moment in the relationship between the Republic of Somaliland and the Puntland Federal Member State. The Somaliland delegation, led by the Minister of Presidency, Mr. Khadar Abdi Loge, met with Puntland officials to finalize the historic agreement. After decades defined by territorial disputes, military confrontations, and mutual recrimination, these two historically antagonistic polities have committed to a framework of security cooperation, economic facilitation, and reconciliation support. This rapprochement is rendered all the more significant by its timing, coinciding with Puntland’s profound estrangement from the Federal Government of Somalia in Mogadishu.
While the accord marks a significant diplomatic achievement in de-escalating regional tensions, its implementation presents a formidable test for President Cirro’s administration. The agreement’s success hinges on Hargeisa’s ability to navigate fierce domestic opposition, manage the strategic risks of an asymmetric relationship with Puntland, and translate diplomatic text into tangible security and economic progress on the ground.
Puntland’s Strategic Drift from Mogadishu
A nuanced understanding of the Nairobi accord’s significance necessitates an appreciation of the Puntland Federal Member State’s increasingly fraught relationship with the Federal Government of Somalia. In March 2024, Puntland initiated a fundamental rupture with the federal system, the culmination of protracted disputes over constitutional amendments, electoral processes, and what its leadership perceived as systemic federal encroachment. This has created a strategic environment wherein Puntland increasingly functions as a de facto autonomous entity, pursuing its own diplomatic and security relationships.
The Geopolitical Undercurrents: The US and UAE Connection
Both the Republic of Somaliland and Puntland have cultivated extensive security and economic partnerships with the United Arab Emirates. These parallel relationships have engendered similar institutional frameworks and furnished discreet backchannels for coordination. The United States also maintains security cooperation with both entities, and its strategic imperatives in the Horn of Africa are advanced by a de-escalation of tensions. The selection of Nairobi as the venue provided a neutral setting for the negotiations. The communiqué itself welcomes the international community’s support for peace and notes both parties’ readiness for “fruitful cooperation”.
Competing Principles: The Dialectic of Borders and Bloodlines
Any substantive assessment must contend with the fundamental ideological cleavage that has animated conflict in the eastern regions. The Republic of Somaliland’s territorial claims are anchored in the principle of uti possidetis juris (the inheritance of colonial borders). Puntland, conversely, has articulated claims predicated on clan genealogy. The Nairobi accord does not resolve this philosophical tension. However, it introduces a significant development with the clause stating that Puntland formally welcomes the Republic of Somaliland’s “right to its self-determination”.
The Reality of SSC-Khatumo’s Circumscribed Authority
In truth, SSC-Khatumo’s effective governance is confined primarily to Las Anod and its environs. While the Sanaag region is constitutionally part of Somaliland, it is characterized by a fragmented political landscape. Puntland maintains significant influence with certain communities there, an element that Hargeisa may view as a potentially useful factor in resolving local divisions and fostering broader stability. This complex reality underscores why Mogadishu’s recognition of SSC-Khatumo, while politically symbolic, has failed to materialize into the administrative capacity required to project governance across all its claimed territories.
It is within this fragmented and contested landscape that the Nairobi accord attempts to introduce a new paradigm of cooperation.
From a Paradigm of Confrontation to One of Cooperation
The Nairobi accord signifies a paradigmatic shift away from a zero-sum calculus. The commitment to joint operations against al-Shabab acknowledges a common threat. The agreement to facilitate cross-border trade addresses economic realities long obscured by political antagonism. Perhaps most significantly, the pledge to support reconciliation in Erigavo—a process initiated by Somaliland’s president and supported by Puntland—indicates an evolution toward a more nuanced conception of governance.
Implications for the Regional Order
The accord carries implications that reverberate well beyond the immediate bilateral relationship. For the Republic of Somaliland, it represents diplomatic progress at a moment of significant traction within the United States Congress. The agreement demonstrates Somaliland’s capacity for sophisticated statecraft—simultaneously managing complex regional relationships while advancing its broader strategic objectives. For Puntland, the accord is a manifestation of its increasingly independent foreign policy trajectory.
Domestic Political Controversy: Constitutional Questions and Status Anxiety
The Nairobi accord has generated considerable domestic controversy. A widely circulated statement attributed to former minister Dr. Abdiweli Soufi articulated specific constitutional and strategic concerns, identifying Puntland’s designated role in Erigavo peace efforts and provisions on airspace management as potential violations of the Republic of Somaliland’s sovereignty. The critique voices a broader anxiety that entering into an agreement with a Federal Member State of Somalia fundamentally obscures Somaliland’s claimed status as an independent republic.
In responses across social media and political forums, government supporters have argued that this criticism ignores the profound irony of the opposition raising alarms over territorial integrity. Their central counterargument is anchored in the Las Anod crisis that unfolded under the previous Kulmiye administration, which they contend was a far more grievous compromise of Somaliland’s territory than any diplomatic engagement. This counter-narrative posits that the Nairobi accord is a pragmatic attempt to manage the consequences of past failures.
The Sool Dilemma: Strategic Opportunity versus Asymmetric Risk
While the accord focuses on cooperation in Sanaag, its implicit consequences for the Sool region present both an opportunity and a risk for Somaliland. The new framework could create a pathway for Hargeisa to rebuild influence, but this is complicated by Puntland’s deep historical connection to the area. This creates a fundamental asymmetry: the Puntland Federal Member State wields socio-political leverage within communities inside Somaliland’s constitutional borders, whereas Somaliland possesses no reciprocal influence inside Puntland proper. The challenge for Hargeisa will be to leverage the accord’s cooperative spirit without inadvertently ceding further ground in territories Puntland already claims.
A Foundation for Peace
Despite formidable challenges, the Nairobi accord represents the most significant diplomatic progress between the Republic of Somaliland and the Puntland Federal Member State in decades. It signals a mutual recognition of the strategic bankruptcy inherent in previous policies of confrontation. The ultimate metric of its success, however, will not be the diplomatic fanfare surrounding its inception, but rather its capacity to yield tangible improvements in the lives of the region’s inhabitants. The coming months will be the crucible of implementation, testing whether the political will that produced this agreement can sustain the arduous work of translating commitments into reality.