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Somalia’s Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre’s recent visit to Las Anod represents a calculated provocation against the Republic of Somaliland’s sovereignty rather than legitimate diplomatic or piece-building engagement. This unprecedented incursion—the first by a sitting Somali Prime Minister into territory within Somaliland’s internationally recognized colonial borders—reveals Mogadishu’s increasingly desperate strategy after failing to reclaim territory through conventional means. With Somalia’s government facing financial collapse and security deterioration, Barre’s flag-waving expedition emerges as political misdirection: “Look at our authority in Las Anod,” the performance suggests, “and perhaps you’ll forget we can’t secure our own capital.”
The Incoherence of Somalia’s “Throw Everything at the Wall” Approach
Somalia’s Las Anod gambit exposes a fundamentally contradictory approach to Somaliland that borders on political schizophrenia. For years, Somalia has maintained the fiction that Somaliland is represented in its federal institutions through hand-picked “Somaliland” parliamentarians in Mogadishu—a cornerstone of Somalia’s constitutional claim that Somaliland remains an integral federal member.
Yet dangling Federal Member State status to SSC-Khatumo fundamentally undermines this narrative. If Somaliland is already represented in Somalia’s federal structure, what exactly is Somalia offering Las Anod? Are we witnessing a government so confused about its own constitutional framework that it doesn’t realize it’s contradicting itself? Or is this a cynical ploy to maintain multiple, mutually exclusive claims depending on which audience it’s addressing?
Most telling is that these very “Somaliland” MPs in Mogadishu have now issued a statement condemning Barre’s visit—a remarkable spectacle of Somalia’s puppet representatives rejecting their puppetmaster’s actions. How does Mogadishu explain this theatrical absurdity to its international backers?
The conspicuous absence of Somalia’s own Special Envoy for Somaliland-Somalia talks from the entire Las Anod affair speaks volumes. This diplomatic position, created ostensibly to facilitate reconciliation and dialogue with Somaliland, has been completely sidelined during what Somalia characterizes internationally as a peace-building visit. Instead, Somalia deployed its Prime Minister, much of the cabinet, and an unusually large security contingent—a military-political operation that bypassed the very diplomatic channel allegedly established for Somaliland engagement.
These parallel and contradictory approaches reveal a government desperately throwing anything at the wall to see what might stick—a haphazard collection of mutually exclusive initiatives unified only by their anti-Somaliland orientation.
Political Theater on Borrowed Money
Barre’s ceremonial activities centered around inaugurating a National Identification Registration Agency office and breaking ground on infrastructure projects that Somalia lacks both the means and capacity to complete. The ceremony featuring SSC-Khatumo figurehead Cabdulqaadir Firdhiye receiving the first Somali National ID was transparently symbolic—a plastic card representing phantom citizenship from a state that struggles to provide basic security across its claimed territory.
One must wonder: Is there anything more emblematic of Somalia’s approach than distributing ID cards for a nation-state that exists more in fantasy than reality? When Somalia can’t deliver basic services to neighborhoods of Mogadishu, what value does a Somali national ID carry in Las Anod? It’s the governance equivalent of a child placing a “KEEP OUT” sign on a treehouse they neither built nor own.
The promised hospitals, vocational centers, and government complexes require resources that Somalia simply does not possess. These aren’t development initiatives but territorial markers—flags planted in contested soil without the backing of actual governance capacity. Somalia’s officials are essentially playing a real-world version of the board game Risk, placing plastic game pieces on territories without the means to defend or develop them.
The Dragon’s Footprint: China’s Role in Somalia’s Financial Crisis
Increasingly credible allegations suggest that China may have financed Barre’s provocative Las Anod visit—transforming this regional incursion into a proxy for wider geopolitical competition. China’s growing frustration with Somaliland, particularly following Somaliland’s deepening ties with Taiwan, has reportedly escalated to direct threats against Hargeisa.
The context becomes clearer in light of recent developments reported by The New York Times, which detailed Somaliland’s strategic alignment with the United States and Taiwan, particularly through its offer to host a U.S. military base in Berbera. This strategic port represents exactly the kind of regional influence China seeks to counter, especially given its own military base in neighboring Djibouti.
Somalia’s desperate financial reality makes it particularly susceptible to such foreign influence operations. Official data from ForeignAssistance.gov reveals U.S. aid to Somalia plummeting from $850 million in 2024 to a mere $180 million in 2025—a financial cliff that leaves Somalia’s institutions teetering on the edge of collapse. This dramatic reduction in American support has created a vacuum that actors like China appear eager to exploit.
The FMS Carrot: Empty Promises to SSC-Khatumo
What Somalia offers SSC-Khatumo isn’t development but the mirage of recognition as a Federal Member State—a status deliberately kept just out of reach. Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud has mastered this political balancing act, providing enough encouragement to keep SSC-Khatumo aligned against Somaliland without committing to formal recognition that would require actual resource allocation.
The invitation to Firdhiye to participate in the National Consultation Forum exemplifies this strategy—visibility without substantive authority. This isn’t state-building; it’s conflict outsourcing. For the price of ceremonial recognition and vague promises, Somalia gains a proxy force engaged in undermining Somaliland’s territorial integrity without committing its own limited military resources.
How long will SSC-Khatumo leaders allow themselves to be used as pawns in Somalia’s territorial chess game? At what point do they recognize that the promised FMS status is like a carrot dangled before a donkey—always visible, never attainable, but effective at keeping the animal moving in the desired direction?
The Fragile Alliance: Las Anod’s Reaction to Mogadishu’s Doublespeak
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud’s attempt to characterize Barre’s Las Anod visit as a reconciliation effort has backfired, exposing the fragility of Somalia’s alliance with SSC-Khatumo factions. A prominent Garaad in Las Anod publicly condemned Mohamoud’s characterization as a betrayal of the Prime Minister’s actual mission, creating the unusual spectacle of Somalia’s proxy allies openly challenging Somalia’s own diplomatic narrative.
This rupture reveals Somalia’s contradictory messaging: one narrative for international consumption (reconciliation) and another for proxy allies (territorial reclamation). When these messages collide, the result is an alliance fracture exposing the fundamental incoherence of Somalia’s strategy.
Misplaced Priorities: Focusing on Las Anod While Al-Shabaab Encircles Mogadishu
The most revealing aspect of Barre’s visit is Somalia’s strategic priorities. While Al-Shabaab demonstrates operational capacity within striking distance of Mogadishu itself, Somalia’s leadership expends precious political capital on symbolic gestures in a city far from the existential threats facing the state.
This reveals a government more concerned with performative sovereignty than practical security. The National Consultation Forum further illustrates this selective approach: Firdhiye receives an invitation while the President of Jubaland is excluded and Puntland contests the process. This isn’t comprehensive national reconciliation but the cultivation of allies useful for specific territorial aims.
Shouldn’t a government facing terrorist control of significant portions of its claimed territory focus on securing those areas first? What does it say about Somalia’s governance priorities that it would rather plant flags in contested border regions than secure its own capital’s perimeter? One must ask: Is this a serious national government or a theatrical troupe performing sovereignty while actual governance remains beyond its grasp?
Somaliland’s Institutional Response: Strong Words, But Is It Enough?
Somaliland’s response came swiftly and decisively. On April 11, 2025, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement characterizing the planned visit as a “blatant violation of Somaliland’s sovereignty” and “a serious threat to regional peace and stability.” The following day, Somaliland’s House of Representatives convened an extraordinary session that produced a unanimous resolution suspending all dialogue with Somalia.
The Parliament’s resolution methodically invoked Somaliland’s historical timeline—from its independence from Great Britain on June 26, 1960, through its voluntary union with Somalia in July 1960, to its reclamation of independence on May 18, 1991—reinforcing the legal basis for its sovereignty claims.
But is this enough? How many times will Somaliland issue strongly worded statements and temporarily suspend dialogue only to return to the negotiating table months later? At what point does Somaliland recognize that Somalia’s actions constitute a pattern of deliberate provocation rather than isolated incidents? When will Somaliland’s leadership abandon its perpetual hope that Somalia can be dealt with as a “brotherly” nation and acknowledge the existential threat Somalia’s territorial ambitions represent?
Somalia’s Phantom Gifts: The Diplomatic Squatter in Berbera
Somalia’s territorial overreach reached new heights when President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud offered the United States military access to Berbera’s strategic port and airport—facilities that Somalia has not controlled since 1991. This bizarre spectacle of a diplomatic squatter offering foreign powers access to another country’s infrastructure reveals Mogadishu’s increasingly desperate calculations.
The sheer audacity of this move deserves appreciation for its comedic value if nothing else—it’s the geopolitical equivalent of your neighbor inviting guests to tour your living room. “Please, come in! Don’t mind that we haven’t lived here for three decades. The furniture isn’t ours, we don’t have keys to the front door, and the actual residents might object, but please consider yourself invited!”
It demonstrates Somalia’s recognition that Berbera’s facilities represent strategic assets of genuine international interest—assets beyond their reach. It also suggests a calculated gambit to create a false narrative wherein any U.S. engagement with Somaliland could be framed as occurring with Somalia’s “permission”—the same tactic Somalia played when it failed to stop DP World from developing Berbera port years ago.
Security analysts describe this as classic “sovereignty theater”—making grand claims over territories to establish paper rights that can later be leveraged in international forums. It’s governance by assertion: if you claim something loudly enough and often enough, perhaps someone will eventually believe you.
Diplomatic Doublespeak at Antalya
President Mohamoud’s characterization of Barre’s Las Anod visit at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum further demonstrates Somalia’s commitment to parallel realities. Speaking before an international audience, Mohamoud described the visit as “aimed at fostering unity and understanding” and promoting “reconciliation”—a description bearing no resemblance to the actual events.
While Mohamoud called for “continued engagement with Somaliland leaders to resolve differences through constructive dialogue,” Barre’s activities directly undermined any foundation for such dialogue. The cognitive dissonance is striking: one cannot simultaneously respect a dialogue partner while actively challenging their fundamental sovereignty.
This is diplomacy as practiced by Lewis Carroll’s Humpty Dumpty: “When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.” In Somalia’s diplomatic dictionary, “reconciliation” apparently means unilateral territorial incursions, and “dialogue” means talking while simultaneously undermining your counterpart’s very existence.
Strategic Analysis: A Regime Running Out of Options
Barre’s Las Anod visit represents a significant escalation in Somalia’s approach to undermining Somaliland’s sovereignty. Somalia’s increasingly desperate maneuvers—from phantom infrastructure promises to offering facilities it doesn’t control—reflect a weakening position rather than growing strength.
The critical strategic question now facing Somaliland isn’t whether Somalia will follow through on its Las Anod promises—both history and fiscal reality answer that question definitively. The real question is whether Somaliland’s leadership will respond by doubling down on failed dialogue or pursuing a more assertive strategy for international recognition based on its three-decade record of stability, democratic governance, and territorial control.
Will Somaliland finally recognize that Somalia’s actions reveal not a partner in dialogue but an existential threat to Somaliland’s very existence? How many more provocations will it take before Somaliland abandons its naive hope for brotherly reconciliation and pursues a more realistic approach to securing its sovereignty?
Time to Abandon the Somalia Fiction Before Mogadishu Becomes Kabul 2.0
Somalia’s Las Anod gambit ultimately reveals more about Mogadishu’s weaknesses than its strengths. Like the kicks of a dying horse, these desperate territorial assertions may be dangerous in the short term but signal a regime running out of both options and time.
The international community can no longer afford the luxury of diplomatic fiction. The pretense that Somalia and Somaliland are equal parties in a potential reunification dialogue has moved beyond wishful thinking into the realm of dangerous delusion. Thirty-three years of separate development have produced two fundamentally different entities: one a functioning democracy with established institutions and territorial control, the other a fragile state dependent on foreign forces for basic security functions.
What happens when—not if—Mogadishu follows Kabul’s trajectory? When Al-Shabaab eventually overwhelms Somalia’s paper-thin security apparatus, will the international community once again evacuate their embassies in panic only to relocate to Hargeisa while bizarrely maintaining they still represent “Somalia”? Will diplomats flee to the safety of Somaliland’s streets while continuing to deny its existence? The absurdity of such a scenario seems lost on international policymakers who continue treating the stable, functioning democracy as equivalent to its collapsing neighbor.
Western powers must make a choice: continue propping up the sovereignty theater in Mogadishu while ignoring the democratic reality in Hargeisa, or embrace a pragmatic approach that rewards stability, democratic governance, and regional security cooperation. The current approach—financing Somalia’s territorial ambitions while ignoring Somaliland’s democratic achievements—has produced neither peace nor development.
It’s time for a new paradigm that acknowledges realities on the ground rather than colonial-era borders on maps. Somaliland’s case for recognition stands on its own merits—three decades of peace, democratic transitions, and institutional development in a region where such achievements remain rare. The international community must ask itself: If not Somaliland, then who? If not now, then when?
The Las Anod provocation should serve as a wake-up call. Somalia’s territorial claims have evolved from diplomatic irritants into active threats to regional stability. The fiction of dialogue between fundamentally unequal parties has been exposed as the empty performance it always was. The time has come for the international community to abandon diplomatic pretense and embrace diplomatic reality—recognizing Somaliland as the independent state it has been since 1991, before they’re forced to acknowledge it from the safety of its territory while fleeing a Mogadishu in flames.