The Djibouti regime is teetering on the edge of collapse, driven by economic desperation and a growing sense of insecurity. The rise of Berbera port in Somaliland as a major competitor has exposed the weaknesses of Djibouti’s growth model, which relies heavily on its port sector and Ethiopian trade.
Djibouti’s external public debt has ballooned from 33.9% of GDP in 2013 to 68% in 2022, largely due to loan-financed investments in state-owned enterprises, including the port and railway. The World Bank has warned that this model is unsustainable, citing the emergence of Berbera port as a strong competitor.
Instead of embracing healthy competition and finding ways to innovate and improve, Djibouti has chosen a destabilization path. It has opposed the MOU between Somaliland and Ethiopia, signed a military pact with Turkey, and recruited militias to destabilize Somaliland. Most alarmingly, sources from within Djibouti report that the regime is planning false flag attacks within Djibouti to justify invading the western part of Somaliland.
However, Djibouti is gravely miscalculating Somaliland’s resolve and capabilities. Somaliland has been exercising self-restraint in the face of Djibouti’s aggression but will not hesitate to defend itself if attacked. The people of Somaliland are determined to protect their sovereignty and territorial integrity and will stand up against any aggression with unwavering resolve.
Djibouti’s regime would do well to recognize the futility of its plans and seek diplomatic solutions to its economic and security challenges. The international community must also take immediate action to prevent regional instability and support Somaliland’s right to economic freedom.
About the Author
Badri Jimale is Horn of Africa follower and Pragmatic solutions advocate.
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