 |
The January 2024 memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland, promising maritime access in exchange for potential recognition, sent shockwaves through the Horn of Africa. Turkey’s response was swift and calculated: rather than acknowledge Somaliland’s sovereign right to make such agreements, Ankara immediately positioned itself to mediate between Somalia and Ethiopia. The resulting Ankara Declaration effectively nullified the Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU by promoting direct Ethiopia-Somalia maritime arrangements—a clear demonstration of Turkey’s true agenda.
This calculated intervention fits Turkey’s established playbook. Since appointing former Ambassador Olgan Bekar as Special Envoy for Somaliland-Somalia talks in 2018, Ankara has masqueraded as an impartial broker while methodically reinforcing Somalia’s territorial claims. Each round of Turkish-led dialogue follows the same script: Somaliland receives empty rhetoric while Somalia’s position strengthens.
The charade dropped all pretense in February 2024, when Turkey and Somalia signed a sweeping Defense and Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement. The deal—inked mere weeks after the Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU—granted Turkey a 30% cut of Somalia’s maritime revenues in exchange for naval reconstruction and training. The message wasn’t just clear; it was intentionally brutal: Turkey considers Somaliland’s waters to be Somalia’s property.
Turkey’s footprint in Somalia renders any claim of neutrality absurd. It maintains its largest overseas military base in Mogadishu, trains Somalia’s forces, controls 45% of the capital’s port revenues, and runs the airport. Ankara’s largest embassy worldwide isn’t in Washington or Brussels—it’s in Mogadishu. Meanwhile, Somaliland receives a pittance: 216 donated medical machines and a portfolio of unfulfilled promises.
By continuing to entertain Turkey’s overtures, Hargeisa is not just repeating past mistakes—it is actively legitimizing a foreign agenda designed to erase its sovereignty. For decades, Somaliland governments have eagerly welcomed foreign emissaries whose primary credentials are their postings to Mogadishu, with “and Somaliland” ceremoniously tacked onto their titles. This persistent acceptance of diplomatic table scraps exposes a fundamental contradiction: while claiming to seek international recognition, Somaliland routinely undermines its own sovereignty by accepting diplomatic arrangements that explicitly deny it.
The Turkey-Qatar alliance has emerged as the primary architect of Somaliland’s diplomatic marginalization. As regional expert Michael Rubin bluntly puts it, “Turkey does not have a track record as an honest broker, and President Erdoğan’s ideological agenda does not value Somaliland’s democracy and security.” This agenda was laid bare when Turkey’s latest delegation to Hargeisa included both its Ambassador to Somalia and its intelligence chief—a composition that treats Somaliland not as a sovereign entity, but as a troublesome province to be investigated.
The timing of Turkey’s outreach is calculated to maximize damage. Their delegation arrived shortly after President Cirro’s high-profile second visit to the UAE, where Somaliland was showcased alongside DP World at the World Governments Summit. The contrast is devastating: while Abu Dhabi delivers billion-dollar port investments and strategic partnerships, Turkey dispatches intelligence operatives and diplomatic illusions.
Turkey and Qatar’s aggressive push in Somalia represents a direct challenge to UAE-Saudi influence in the region. Ankara has systematically worked to undermine UAE-backed projects in Berbera, mobilizing Somalia’s opposition while methodically spreading anti-UAE sentiment within Somaliland. More insidiously, Turkish-backed talking points—questioning UAE partnerships and pushing for renewed Somalia talks—have infected Somaliland’s opposition circles and civil society organizations.
For Cirro’s administration, this presents an existential challenge. His Waddani party’s campaign pledge to restart talks with Somalia already left him vulnerable to unionist accusations. Now, entertaining Turkey’s transparent duplicity risks not only validating these concerns but jeopardizing Somaliland’s most crucial economic partnerships. The UAE, as Somalia painfully learned, does not forget betrayal.
Somaliland’s diplomacy isn’t pragmatic—it’s spineless. Instead of shaping its own fate, it passively absorbs the agendas of foreign players who refuse to recognize its independence. While Mogadishu wallows in chronic instability and terrorism, Somaliland’s willingness to accommodate powers that insist on its eventual reintegration with this chaos betrays a devastating lack of conviction in its separate destiny. Perhaps this diplomatic spinelessness reveals an even more troubling reality: Somaliland’s elected officials might be simply waiting for Somalia to stabilize—a delusional strategy that trades real independence for imaginary reconciliation.
The presence of Turkey’s intelligence chief in the recent delegation should have triggered immediate rejection. Instead, Somaliland’s welcome mat response reveals a leadership void at the heart of its independence project. President Bihi’s calls for broader international mediation and balanced Turkish investment acknowledge the problem, but words ring hollow when actions continue to legitimize those who fund Somaliland’s diplomatic suffocation.
For Somaliland to be taken seriously as an independent state, it must abandon its role as a diplomatic doormat. Real sovereignty demands more than declarations—it requires the courage to reject overtures from powers that fundamentally deny its right to exist. The path to international recognition cannot be paved with endless accommodation of those who question its very legitimacy.
If Somaliland’s leaders cannot muster the resolve to reject Turkey’s sham neutrality, they might as well admit it: independence is not a serious pursuit—merely a convenient slogan masking an endless cycle of submission. The time has come to decide: will Somaliland stand firm as a sovereign state, or remain what Turkey already considers it—a provincial afterthought in an international power play?