In a recent media address, Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister Taye Atske-Selassie reaffirmed Ethiopia’s position on Red Sea access, stating, “There has to be safe, reliable, sustainable and durable access to and from the sea, because it’s our legitimate [need], we don’t want to be suffocated.” This powerful declaration underscores Ethiopia’s resolve to secure a “reliable and dependable independent sea outlet,” a quest that has led to the ground-breaking Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland.
Recent developments include the appointment of Ambassador Teshome Shunde Hamito as Ethiopia’s representative to Somaliland, marking a formal step in establishing diplomatic relations. During a meeting with Somaliland’s President Muse Bihi Abdi, discussions emphasized regional security, strengthening bilateral relations, and future cooperation. This diplomatic advancement comes despite Somalia’s continued objections and Djibouti’s strategic counteroffer. It signals that Ethiopia and Somaliland are moving forward in implementing critical aspects of the MoU, undeterred by regional opposition.
Addressing the Turkish brokered talks with Somalia in Ankara, Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister acknowledged progress but issued a stark warning about Somalia’s stance. “We have seen some positive developments,” he noted, but quickly added, “At the same time, we are witnessing unhelpful rhetoric and pronouncements from the Somali side.” He further emphasized, “Their hostile rhetoric and threats will not discourage Ethiopia from its commitment to peace in this region”. This pointed comment reveals Ethiopia’s growing frustration with what it perceives as obstructionist behavior from Somali officials.
Meanwhile, Djibouti has launched its own strategic maneuver. Djibouti’s Foreign Minister, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, presented Ethiopia with an enticing proposition: full management rights to Djibouti’s northern port of Tajoura. Youssouf framed this offer as a “new corridor that is already built,” emphasizing the immediacy and practicality of the solution.
However, Ethiopia’s recent actions suggest that Djibouti’s offer may indeed be too little, too late. The Ethiopian Foreign Minister’s assertion that “we have already set our direction” takes on new significance in light of Ethiopia’s commitment to diversifying maritime access options beyond its traditional reliance on Djibouti.
Adding to the complexity, Djibouti has taken assertive steps to counter Somaliland’s growing influence. Djibouti has closed Somaliland’s diplomatic mission and invited adversaries, highlighting its determination to thwart Somaliland’s emerging strategic competition. This aggressive stance underscores Djibouti’s intent to maintain control over regional maritime access and keep Ethiopia as a landlocked customer, rather than offering genuine access to the Red Sea.
Moreover, Djibouti is also competing for the African Union chairmanship, although its prospects may not be as bright against East Africa’s venerable elder statesman, Mr. Raila Odinga. This adds another layer to Djibouti’s aggressive regional posturing, as it seeks to maintain its strategic significance amidst rising competition.
The economic implications of this diplomatic chess game are immense. Ethiopia stands to save up to $1 billion annually in logistics costs by diversifying its sea access. Conversely, Djibouti faces potential economic upheaval, with port-related revenues accounting for nearly 80% of its GDP. Djibouti’s recent actions further cast doubt on its reliability as a partner for Ethiopia, indicating a preference for keeping Ethiopia dependent on its ports rather than facilitating true maritime access.
As these events unfold, the Ethiopian Foreign Minister’s words resonate with particular gravity: “This is about the future of our nation and the prosperity of our people.” It’s clear that Ethiopia views its maritime strategy as non-negotiable and is taking concrete steps to implement its vision.
As Ethiopia pushes forward with its ambitious plans, seemingly undeterred by Somalia’s objections or Djibouti’s counteroffers, the region finds itself at a critical juncture. The decisions and actions taken in the coming months have the potential to fundamentally reshape the economic, diplomatic, and security landscape of the entire Horn of Africa for years to come. The world watches closely as this high-stakes maritime diplomacy unfolds, with the stability and prosperity of the region hanging in the balance.